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2010-03-19 21:22:14 UTC
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Book Review

Perry Anderson on the Specter of China
Posted on Mar 19, 2010
By Perry Anderson

The following review originally appeared in the London Review of
Books, whose website is www.lrb.co.uk, and is reposted with
permission.

These days Orientalism has a bad name. Edward Said depicted it as a
deadly mixture of fantasy and hostility brewed in the West about
societies and cultures of the East. He based his portrait on Anglo-
French writing about the Near East, where Islam and Christendom
battled with each other for centuries before the region fell to
Western imperialism in modern times. But the Far East was always
another matter. Too far away to be a military or religious threat to
Europe, it generated tales not of fear or loathing, but wonder. Marco
Polo’s reports of China, now judged mostly hearsay, fixed fabulous
images that lasted down to Columbus setting sail for the marvels of
Cathay. But when real information about the country arrived in the
17th and 18th centuries, European attitudes towards China tended to
remain an awed admiration, rather than fear or condescension. From
Bayle and Leibniz to Voltaire and Quesnay, philosophers hailed it as
an empire more civilised than Europe itself: not only richer and more
populous, but more tolerant and peaceful, a land where there were no
priests to practise persecution and offices of the state were filled
according to merit, not birth. Even those sceptical of the more
extravagant claims for the Middle Kingdom – Montesquieu or Adam Smith
– remained puzzled and impressed by its wealth and order.

A drastic change of opinion came in the 19th century, when Western
predators became increasingly aware of the relative military weakness
and economic backwardness of the Qing empire. China was certainly
teeming, but it was also primitive, cruel and superstitious. Respect
gave way to contempt, mingled with racist alarm – Sinomania capsizing
into Sinophobia. By the early 20th century, after eight foreign forces
had stormed their way to Pekin to crush the Boxer Uprising, the
‘yellow peril’ was being widely bandied about among press and
politicians, as writers like Jack London or J.H. Hobson conjured up a
future Chinese takeover of the world. Within another few decades, the
pendulum swung back, as Pearl Buck and Madame Chiang won popular
sympathy for China’s gallant struggle against Japan. After 1948, in a
further rapid reversal, Red China became the focus of still greater
fear and anxiety, a totalitarian nightmare more sinister even than
Russia. Today, the high-speed growth of the People’s Republic is
transforming Western attitudes once again, attracting excitement and
enthusiasm in business and media alike, with a wave of fashion and
fascination recalling the chinoiserie of rococo Europe. Sinophobia has
by no means disappeared. But another round of Sinomania is in the
making.

The title of Martin Jacques’s When China Rules the World belongs to
the scare literature of the first. But its function is little more
than a commercial come-on, designed to clear the purchased display-
table and the airport stall. The book itself is a sweeping
contribution to the second. Its message consists of two parts. The
first is the now well-known projection that – at present growth rates
– the Chinese economy will be the largest in the world, overtaking the
American, within about 15 years. With four times the population of the
US, China already has the biggest foreign reserves, is the leading
exporter, posts the most spectacular stock-market gains, and contains
the largest car market on earth. So massive is the transformation its
rise to economic supremacy will bring that – so Jacques – history can
henceforward simply be divided into BC and AC: Before China and After
China. This part of the argument is a straightforward quantitative
extrapolation. Jacques hammers the impending figures home, without
adding a great deal to what anyone with a certain economic literacy
would know already.

Beyond altering international league tables, what will China’s
emergence as an economic superpower signify? The second part of
Jacques’s message is not about size, but difference. China is not like
other nations, indeed is not really a nation-state at all. It is
something vaster and deeper, a ‘civilisation-state’, inheritor of the
oldest continuous history in the world, whose underlying cultural
unity and self-confidence are without equal. Long before the West, its
rulers created the first modern bureaucracy, imbued with a Confucian
outlook at once authoritarian and democratic, controlling domestic
subjects more by moral education than force, and organising adjacent
regions into a consensual tributary system. By absorbing feudal
aristocrats into impersonal state service, they freed market forces
from customary constraints to develop a commercial society of
unparalleled dynamism and sophistication. Only the accident of more
readily available coal at home, and ruthless colonial pillage of
resources overseas, allowed 19th-century Europe to overtake this great
proto-modern economy, as industrialised in its way as the West, and
much larger. But this Western predominance will prove a brief
interval. Today, China is returning once more to its historic position
as the dynamic centre of the global economy.

What are going to be the consequences for the rest of the world?
Traumatically for the United States, China will fairly soon replace it
as hegemon, not only in traditional areas of Chinese influence in East
and South-East Asia, but across former Third and First Worlds alike.
The soft power of its sporting prowess, its martial arts, its costly
painters, its multitudinous language, its ancient medicine, and not
least the delights of its cuisine, will spread China’s radiance far
and wide, as Hollywood, English and McDonald’s do America’s today.
Above all, its spectacular economic success will not only inspire
imitation wherever poor nations strive for betterment. It will reorder
the entire international system, by holding out the prospect, not of
democracy within nation-states, which the West vainly seeks to
promote, but of ‘democracy between nation-states’. For we are entering
a time in which the political and ideological conflicts that marked
the Cold War are giving way to an ‘overarching cultural contest’, in
which ‘alternative modernities’ will end the dominance of the West. In
that emancipation a distinctively Chinese modernity, rooted in the
Confucian values of devotion to the family and respect for the state,
will lead the way.

How should this construction be judged? Enthusiasm, however well-
meaning, is no substitute for discrimination. Chinese antiquity
stretches back to 1500 BCE or beyond. But this no more makes today’s
People’s Republic a special genus of ‘civilisation-state’ than
comparable claims for la civilisation française make one of the Third
or Fourth Republic. Talk of ‘civilisations’ is notoriously self-
serving, and delimitations of them arbitrary: Samuel Huntington
arrived, rather desperately, at eight or nine – including an African,
Latin American and Eastern Orthodox civilisation. Nothing is gained by
affixing this embellishment to the PRC. Like France in the 1930s or
1950s, contemporary China is an integrist nation-state, cast in an
imperial mould, if with a much longer past and on a much larger scale.
Nor are inflated claims for the age-old economic centrality or social
wisdom of pre-modern China much help in understanding the present or
future of the country. If, up through the Song, China was
technologically and commercially far in advance of Europe, by the end
of the Ming its science lagged well behind, and even at the height of
Qing prosperity in the 18th century, agrarian productivity and average
wage levels, let alone intellectual progress in a broader sense, were
nowhere near vanguard developments in Europe. Nor are idyllic images
of sage concern for the welfare of the masses much closer to the
realities of rule by successive dynasties, which in the words of one
of China’s finest historians, He Bingdi, were always ‘ornamentally
Confucian and functionally Legalist’ – repression wrapped in
moralising rhetoric.

It would be unfair to judge any of this side of When China Rules the
World, a popular work, by scholarly standards. None of it matters very
much to the main thrust of the book, where it serves only as
preliminary folklore to adjust readers in advance to the idea of pre-
eminence to come. China could perfectly well be about to dominate the
world without having nearly always represented the summit of universal
development in the past. More serious is the incoherence of the book’s
central message. For the most part, When China Rules the World is an
unabashed exercise in boosterism, hailing the PRC not only as the
paramount power of the future, but as the liberating ice-breaker that
will, in the book’s American subtitle, bring about ‘The End of the
Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order’. Sightings of this
sort seem to have become a late British speciality: Jacques’s version
is only a little less absurd than Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century
by Mark Leonard, a fellow seer of the Demos think tank Jacques helped
to found. But there is another side to When China Rules the World at
odds with its generally upbeat story. Internationally, China has
‘embraced multilateralism’, attracts its neighbours and partners by
‘soft power’, and promotes ‘democracy between nations’. Yet we also
need to be aware that ‘the Chinese regard themselves as superior to
the rest of the human race,’ inheriting a Middle Kingdom mentality
that has always been more or less racist, and traditions of tributary
statecraft that may have been conducive to stability, but were always
based on hierarchy and inequality. Might this heritage compromise the
fair prospect of a democratic inter-state system? Not necessarily,
since while ‘the Western world is over, the new world, at least for
the next century, will not be Chinese in the way that the previous one
was Western’. The book, in other words, disowns its own title,
confected purely to increase sales. China is not going to rule the
world. All that is happening is that ‘we are entering an era of
competing modernity’ in which China will ‘increasingly be in the
ascendant and eventually dominant’.

But the idea of a distinctively ‘Chinese modernity’ winning a global
competition for hegemony is no more coherent than that of high-speed
Chinese growth ushering in ‘democracy between nation-states’. Its role
in the book is to be understood in the light of the author’s cursus
vitae. Once the editor of the Communist Party of Great Britain’s
monthly, Marxism Today, after his party and journal gave up the ghost
in the early 1990s Jacques moved into mainstream journalism, shedding
the language, if not altogether the reflexes, of his past. The Cold
War over and the Soviet Union gone, the opposition between socialism
and capitalism was now a back number. How then should the open-door
policies of the PRC – its welcome to the world market – be related to
it? This is not a matter on which When China Rules the World cares to
dwell. Such questions belong to a vocabulary the book goes out of its
way to avoid. Over five hundred pages, the word ‘capitalism’ scarcely
ever appears. But there is still a global contest, in which the more
sympathetic side can nonetheless win. Simply, it is now between not
the outdated political and ideological categories of socialism and
capitalism, but alternative ‘modernities’, as so many different
cultural ways of being up to the minute. The function of this change
of lexicon is not hard to see. What it offers is the chance of a
consolation prize for the left. Capitalism may have won worldwide, so
why bother to go on talking about it? Instead, why not look ahead to
the welcome prospect of a non-Western variant of what is now our
common destiny overtopping all others, in a country where the ruling
party at least still describes itself as Communist?

Alas, there is a logical difficulty in this wistful hope, which is
insuperable. Alternative modernities, so conceived, are cultural, not
structural: they differentiate not social systems, but sets of values
– typically, a distinctive combination of morality and sensibility,
making up a certain national ‘style’ of life. But just because this is
what is most specific to any given culture, it is typically what is
least transferable to any other – that is, impossible to universalise.
Other recent works highlighting cultural differences in a post-
ideological world – Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations or Fukuyama’s
Trust come to mind – have grasped this intransitivity, making no
claims that any one complex could tend towards predominance over all
others, in the way that a modal economic order can. Moreover,
projections of a Chinese modernity that will eventually become
hegemonic not only forget the inherently self-limiting character of
any strongly defined national culture, they further ignore the
especially intense Chinese insistence, familiar to anyone who has been
in the country, on the uniqueness of China. Few contemporary cultures,
save perhaps Japan, are so self-consciously resistant to international
comparison, so convinced of the inimitability of their own forms and
traditions. In his way, Jacques is aware of this, at times even
exaggerating it as an inveterate sense of superiority close to racism,
of which there is less evidence than he assumes. But he fails to see
how thoroughly the cult of Zhonghuaxing – ‘Chineseness’ – undoes his
own imaginings of a future Han modernity spreading triumphantly, as a
universal attractor, across the globe.

The rise of the PRC as a great economic, political and military power
is a central fact of the age. But it gains no illumination from a
vacant notion of modernity, which remains as nebulous at the end of
When China Rules the World as it was at the beginning. It would not be
too unfair to say that what the book at bottom represents is a belated
meeting of Yesterday’s Marxism with Asian Values. For beyond a general
insistence on the ethical continuities of Confucianism, of which
Chinese Communism is viewed as a lineal heir, it says remarkably
little about contemporary Chinese society itself. A few cursory lines
noting that inequality has been growing, but the government is now
acting to redress it; a bit more on the shortage of natural resources
and environmental problems; a clipped paragraph on the Party; some
prudent reflections on trouble in the border regions; and a firm
assurance that the country is not ready for democracy, so it would be
best if the CCP could rule undisturbed for another 30 years: this is
more or less all the reader curious to learn about the actual social
landscape of the PRC could gather from it. Certainly there is nothing
to upset the authorities in Beijing, where reception should be
excellent. In 1935, the Webbs entitled their book on the USSR Soviet
Communism: A New Civilisation?, dropping the question mark in
subsequent editions. Today’s ‘civilisation-state’ has been approached
in something of the same spirit.

Serious understanding of contemporary China lies elsewhere. Two works
of outstanding scholarship, from opposite ends of the political and
intellectual spectrum, can be taken as current benchmarks. From the
liberal right, Yasheng Huang’s Capitalism with Chinese
Characteristics is a tour de force of empirical inquiry, conceptual
clarity and independence of mind. Anyone wanting to know what kind of
economy, and what sort of growth, can be found in the PRC should now
start here. Huang’s premises could not be more rigidly neoclassical:
sound development is delivered by private ownership, secure property
rights, financial liberalisation and the systemic deregulation of
economic transactions – and these alone. His conclusions, however, are
a clear illustration of the truth of Carlo Ginzburg’s observation that
a misguided ideology can be a precondition of original research, as
well – perhaps as often – as an obstacle to it. By meticulous scrutiny
of primary evidence, above all a huge mass of bank documentation
tracking loans and their recipients, rather than simply relying on
aggregated second-hand statistics, Huang has cut through the clouds of
obscurity and confusion that have tended to surround the performance
of the Chinese economy in the Reform Era which followed the passing of
Mao.

His central finding is that the apparently unbroken rates of high-
speed growth have rested on two quite different models of development.
In the 1980s, a general liberalisation of financial policy allowed
private businesses to flourish in the countryside, many under the
misleading sobriquet of ‘township and village enterprises’, as credits
flowed to peasant start-ups and rural poverty fell dramatically. Then
came the shock of 1989. Thereafter, the state abruptly changed course,
choking off credits to rural entrepreneurs, switching loan capital
instead into large, rebuilt state-owned enterprises and urban
infrastructures, and – not least – granting massive advantages to
foreign capital drawn to the big cities. The social consequences of
this change, Huang argues, were dramatic. Inequality – not only
between village and city-dwellers, but within the urban population
itself – soared, as labour’s share of GDP fell, while peasants lost
land, rural healthcare and schooling were dismantled, and illiteracy
in the countryside actually grew. In a blistering chapter on Shanghai,
the showcase of Chinese ‘hyper-modernity’, Huang demonstrates how
little average households in the city benefited from its glittering
towers and streamlined infrastructures. Amid a ‘forest of grand
theft’, officials, developers and foreign executives prospered while
private firms were stunted and ordinary families struggled to get by,
in ‘the world’s most successful Potemkin metropolis’. Nationwide, in
20 years, officialdom – raking in four successive, double-digit
increases in its salaries between 1998 and 2001 alone – has more than
doubled in size.

Cautiously, Huang expresses some optimism about the direction of the
current Hu-Wen government, as a correction of the worst excesses of
the Jiang-Zhu regime of the 1990s, while remarking that its reforms
may prove too late to redress the ruin of peasant enterprise, in
villages now often emptied by labour migration. But he ends by
contrasting the sky-high Gini coefficient of today’s PRC with the
relative equity that marked the high-speed growth in the rest of East
Asia – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – and the far greater role in
China of foreign and state enterprises, and the lesser weight of the
domestic private sector, in the country’s growth model. One
consequence, he maintains, is that productivity gains have been
declining since the mid-1990s. For Huang, the lesson is
straightforward: efficiency and equity always depend on free markets,
which in China remain half-strangled. Capitalism there certainly is,
but a variety deformed by a corrupt and self-aggrandising state, which
in denying its people liberty to manage their own economic affairs has
failed to create reasonable conditions of fairness or welfare. The
prescription is simplistic, as a glance at the United States could
have told any scholar at MIT like Huang. Since the 1980s, financial
liberalisation and cast-iron property rights have not delivered much
social equity to Americans. But the indictment, set out with exemplary
care and lucidity, is unnegotiable. So too is the anger behind it, at
callousness and injustice. Not many economists would think to dedicate
their work, as Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics does, to a
couple of imprisoned villagers and an executed housewife.

Huang’s central concern is with the fate of rural China, where, as he
rightly insists, the majority of the population still lives and dies.
The fate of urban labour is the subject of Ching Kwan Lee’s Against
the Law. Studies of the working class anywhere in the world, once a
staple of history and sociology, have declined along with labour
movements as a political force; in recent years, perhaps only in
France has writing of real distinction appeared. Lee’s book, written
from a standpoint on the radical left, transforms this scene. Although
quite different in mode and scale, in power nothing like it has
appeared since E.P. Thompson’s Making of the English Working Class.
In fact, it could well have been called The Unmaking and Remaking of
the Chinese Working Class. The product of seven years’ research and
interview work on the ground, it is an ethnographic and analytic
masterpiece.

The book is a diptych, one part devoted to the rustbelt of Manchuria,
the other to the sunbelt of Guangdong. Its first half is a study of
the destruction of the proletariat that built China’s principal
industrial base after Liberation, as the great state-owned enterprises
of the north-east were scrapped or sold off, leaving their workers
jobless and often near-penniless, while officials and profiteers lined
their pockets with what was left of all they had created. By
coincidence, we have an unforgettable fresco of the wreckage of this
old working class and its universe in Wang Bing’s nine-hour
documentary West of the Tracks (2003), a landmark of world cinema in
this century and a fitting pendant to Against the Law, made in
Shenyang while Lee was conducting her research in the same city. The
second part of Lee’s book explores the emergence of a new working
class of young migrant labourers from the countryside, about half of
them women, without collective identity or political memory, in the
coastal export zones of the south-east. They have low-wage jobs, but
no security, toiling up to 70 or 80 hours a week in often atrocious
working conditions, with widespread exposure to abuse and injury.
Dereliction in the rustbelt, super-exploitation in the sunbelt: the
treatment of labour is pitiless in either zone.

How do workers react to it? In a system where they have no freedom of
industrial or political organisation, and the social contract that
once gave them a modest security and dignity in exchange for
subordination has been jettisoned, the law – however authoritarian –
becomes the only resource to which they can appeal. Any direct action
risking police repression, protests typically find their way to the
courts, in the hope that blatant violations of legality by employers
or local officials will find some redress there – and in the belief
that the central government, if it knew its laws were being broken,
would take action to see them enforced. Such popular faith in the good
intentions of the Party leadership might be seen as a Chinese version
of the traditional Russian belief in the tsar as ‘Little Father’,
unaware of the misdeeds of his bureaucrats and landlords. The central
authorities naturally foster the illusion that they are not
responsible for illegalities lower down, giving them leeway to step in
with last minute concessions when protests look like getting out of
hand.

In fact, as Lee makes clear, the law can only function as an effective
system of control and mystification if the courts do not invariably
act as rubber stamps for criminality or oppression. In general, that
is just how they do behave. But in a minority of cases, labour
disputes are decided – more often partially than wholly – in favour of
workers, keeping alive the belief that the law remains a protection
even where it is being brazenly flouted by those with state power
behind them. In ways reminiscent of the 18th-century England depicted
by Thompson in Whigs and Hunters, notions of ‘the rule of law’ become
a battleground, in which the anger of those below seeks to wrest
verdicts from the cynicism of those on high, as the only potential
weapons of the weak to hand. The reason regular failure in this
unequal contest does not lead to more explosive forms of protest, Lee
shows, is material rather than ideological. In the rustbelt, workers
dispossessed of everything else typically retain their own housing,
privatised to them at low prices, as a safety net. In the sunbelt,
migrant labourers still have rights to a plot of earth back in their
villages, where land has not yet been privatised, as a fall-back. For
all the wretchedness of their respective lots, neither is quite
destitute: each has something to lose.

The sobriety and realism of these conclusions diminishes nothing of
the tragedy of betrayed hopes and ruined lives that fills the pages of
Against the Law. Lee’s capture of the voices of those caught in the
relentless industrial mechanisms of the Reform Era, in one poignant
interview after another, is among the finest accomplishments of her
book. The stories are often heartbreaking, but the accents with which
they are told speak of courage, indignation, stoicism, even humour, as
much as bitterness, resignation or despair. Few sociological studies
have combined structural and existential, objective and subjective
truths so memorably as this one. Without taking stock of it, no sense
of contemporary China is clear-eyed. In the 19th century, Europe
looked to America as the future, if one still quite some way off. In
the 21st century, the West looks towards China in something of the
same way. So far, certainly, no Tocqueville of the East has appeared.
Is what he once achieved repeatable? There is plenty of time yet. But
it is unlikely that Democracy in America will find its successor,
wherever else it might, in any Modernity in China.

http://www.amazon.com/When-China-Rules-World-Western/dp/1594201854%3FSubscriptionId%3D1XWTFJ60BR6QZ1PW9FR2%26tag%3Dtruthdig-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D1594201854

Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the
State
By Yasheng Huang

Cambridge University Press, 366 pages
http://www.amazon.com/Capitalism-Chinese-Characteristics-Entrepreneurship-State/dp/0521898102%3FSubscriptionId%3D1XWTFJ60BR6QZ1PW9FR2%26tag%3Dtruthdig-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0521898102

Against the Law: Labor Protests in China’s Rustbelt and Sunbelt
By Ching Kwan Lee

University of California Press, 340 pages
http://www.amazon.com/Against-Law-Protests-Rustbelt-Sunbelt/dp/0520250974%3FSubscriptionId%3D1XWTFJ60BR6QZ1PW9FR2%26tag%3Dtruthdig-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0520250974

http://www.truthdig.com/arts_culture/item/perry_anderson_on_the_specter_of_china_20100319/

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Submitted by wulan on Fri, 03/19/2010 - 06:31 Business & Economics

In the 12 years from 1978 to 1990, China‘s reform and opening up
achieved remarkable progress, with its GDP growing 9.0% annually and
trade volume growing at 15.4%. During this period, urban per capita
income grew 5.9% annually, but that of rural areas grew at a
spectacular rate of 9.9% annually (NBS, 2002 pp.17, 94,148). People‘s
living standards and incomes increased significantly and urban-rural
disparities fell.

The achievement of China‘s reform can be called a miracle in economic
history. However, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, international
economic research community did not understand much about China‘s
reform, and many economists were far from optimistic. Most economists
believed that a market economy should be based on private property, a
feature that the Chinese economy apparently lacked at that time.
China‘s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were not privatized; a dual-
track resource allocation system was prevalent with state planning
still playing a very important role. They thought that although
China‘s economic transition was blessed with beneficial initial
conditions such as high proportions of cheap rural labor, low social
security subsidies, a large population of overseas Chinese, and a
relatively decentralized economy that helped to achieve some short-
term progress, the dual-track system would soon lead to efficiency
loss, rent-seeking, and institutionalized state-opportunism, which
constituted an inferior institutional arrangement. (Balcerowicz, 1994;
Woo, 1993; Sachs and Woo, 1994 and 1997; Qian and Xu, 1993.). Some
economists even claimed that China‘s transition would finally fail due
to incomplete reform (Murphy, Schleifer, and Vishny, 1992; Sachs, Woo,
and Yang, 2000).

At that time, most economists were optimistic about reform in the
Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (FSUEE hereafter) due to the
fact that these countries reformed their economies according to the
fundamental principles of neo-classical economics. The most
representative of these principles was the —shock therapy“ implemented
in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Russia, which consisted of three
main components: price liberalization, rapid privatization, and
macroeconomic stabilization by removing fiscal deficits. (Lipton and
Sachs, 1990; Blanchard, Dornbusch, Krugman, Layard, and Summers, 1991;
Boycko, Shleifer, and Vishiny, 1995.) These components are considered
the base of an efficient economic system in neoclassical economic
theory.

Economists recommending shock therapy also knew that it took time to
make the transition from one economic system to another and that it
was costly to cast aside previously vested interests. But they
optimistically assumed that the national economy would grow after six
months or a year following an initial downturn stemming from the
introduction of shock therapy (Brada and King, 1991; Kornai, 1990;
Lipton and Sachs, 1990; Wiles, 1995). According to their beliefs, the
FSUEE would overtake China through their reform, though the former
started their reforms much later, and China‘s difficulties would loom
larger due to inconsistencies inside the economic system brought about
by incomplete reforms.

Ten years have elapsed since the predictions of many renowned
economists were put forth in the early 1990s. Contrary to these
predictions, China‘s economy has grown in the past decade while those
countries that implemented the shock therapy experienced serious
inflation and economic decline. Russia‘s inflation reached 8414% in
1993, and that of Ukraine reached 10155%. In 1995, Russia‘s GDP was
only half of what it had been in 1990, and Ukraine‘s situation was
worse with a 60% decline during the same period. With significant
declines in per capita income and extreme exacerbation of income
disparities, all social indicators slid–male life expectancy in Russia
decreased from 64 years in 1990 to 58 in 1994 (Gregory and Stuart,
2001, p. 470). Overall, the countries that implemented shock therapy
experienced great difficulties in reform, in contrast to the
optimistic expectation of most economists. In eastern European
countries, Poland scored best in economic transition with only a 20%
decline in its GDP. Poland did not really implement reform based on
shock therapy, however. Although prices in Poland were liberalized,
most of its large SOEs have yet to be privatized (World Bank, 1996;
Dabrowski, 2001).

In the 1990s, the Chinese economy did suffer from a myriad of
problems. For example, the SOE reforms initiated in the early 1980s
have yet to be completed; inter-regional and urbanœrural disparities
have enlarged; and there are still many serious problems in financial
system awaiting solution. However, the national economy grew 10.1%
annually in the 1990s, 1.1% higher than that of the previous 12 years.
International trade grew also at a rate of 15.2% in the last decade
(NBS, 2002, pp. 17,94),. Moreover, people‘s living standards improved
rapidly, especially in urban areas. Economic development in China not
only promoted the welfare of the Chinese people, but also contributed
greatly to the world economy. During the Asian Financial Crisis, the
Chinese currency (RMB) did not depreciate, which played an important
role in Southeast Asian economies‘ quick recovery and growth.

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PDF Ebook Viability, Economic Transition and Reflections on Neo-
classical Economics

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http://www.acrobatplanet.com/category/ebook-non-fictions/business-%2526-economics

http://www.acrobatplanet.com/category/non-fictions-ebook/social-science-ebooks.html

March 19, 2010 1:52 PM
Is China Building the Next Bubble?
Posted by MoneyWatch.com

This post by Carla Fried originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

Will the next pop you hear be the sound of the China bubble bursting?
A few of the world's savvier financial minds think so.

Jim Chanos has made a fortune betting against investments he believes
are ripe for a fall. Among his most illustrious short trades was
pegging high-flying Enron as a disaster in waiting. Today the hedge
fund manager is taking aim at China. "Without a modicum of doubt we
have a credit-driven property bubble right now," Chanos recently
declared in a talk he gave at the London School of Economics. That was
a toned-down version of his quip to the New York Times that China is
"Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," a comment the manager of the $6
billion Kynikos fund now half-heartedly describes as tongue-in-cheek.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/business/global/08chanos.html

Chanos is adding his respected voice to a growing rumble that China's
economy is nearing 212°F. In a recent survey of investment pros who
subscribe to Bloomberg's news and data service, 62 percent said they
believed China is brewing a bubble. Also singing in the China bubble
chorus: Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff, Gloom and Doom
report publisher Marc Faber, and, most recently, James Rickards, a
Virginia-based consultant who knows a thing or two about financial
calamity -- he was the general counsel for Long-Term Capital
Management. To be clear, the China bubble talk is mostly focused on
the country's real estate sector, where property sales jumped 76
percent in 2009 and prices in some markets have recently been rising 8
to 10 percent a month. But the fear is that a meltdown in the real
estate market could take down the rest of the Chinese economy with it,
as has happened in the U.S. and Japan. And with China expected to
account for about a third of global growth in 2010, the consequences
could well be global.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aNZe4JWeV1aw

The Mother of All Stimulus Projects

The roots of the problem lie in China's aggressive response to the
financial crisis. To make up for reduced exports, the government
ramped up domestic spending and what ensued was the "mother of all
stimulus projects," says Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the
Peterson Institute for International Economics. The roughly $575
billion in direct stimulus doled out by China's central government
represented 15 percent of its GDP. (Consider that if the U.S. stimulus
program had clocked in at 15 percent of GDP we would be debating the
merits of a $2 trillion program, not the $787 billion Congress settled
on.)

China's banks also followed the stimulus script, doling out $1.4
trillion in loans last year, a 30 percent increase from 2008. All that
liquidity did the job. According to China's official data (which are
notorious for their lack of transparency) the domestic economy
expanded 12.6 percent in 2009, offsetting a three percentage point
decline in GDP from exports. Overall, China's economy grew 8.7 percent
in 2009, up from 2008's anemic -- at least by China's standards -- GDP
growth of 6.8 percent.

However, much of the stimulus spending and lending has found its way
into real estate, creating ominous imbalances and the potential for
huge amounts of bad loans that the Chinese government would then have
to cover. Commercial developers who were all too happy to take the
stimulus money and build on spec are now often hard-pressed to find
tenants; entire office buildings and shopping malls stand empty in
many large cities that have attracted the most development. In the
residential market, the problem is flipped: too much demand and not
enough supply. Homes are the default investment choice for an
increasingly flush populace that has limited access to other
investment vehicles. And the prevailing sentiment is that if you don't
buy today you are going to be priced out of the market tomorrow.

In response to concerns that it's inflating a bubble in real estate,
the central government has begun taking steps to cool things off, but
to date it's more talk than action. Bank reserve requirements and a
key lending rate have been increased only slightly, and official 2010
lending targets, while lower than last year, will still surpass credit
outlays from 2008.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/19/business/economy/19fed.html

Bubble Dynamics

A torrent of commercial development, a residential market convinced
that if you don't get in today you're toast, and a wan government
response to overheating ... Sound familiar? But there are several key
structural differences between our real estate mess and China's
situation, which suggest it is simplistic to assume China's bubble
must end in a U.S.-style meltdown.

1. Leverage is muted. About 25 percent of Chinese buy their homes
outright with cash. Among borrowers, a 50 percent down payment is
typical; you can't get a mortgage with less than 20 percent down and
if you are looking to buy a second (or third) property the down
payment is 40 percent. China also has yet to develop a HELOC market.
Lardy, of the PIIE, notes that China's household debt as a share of
household income runs about 40 percent. In 2007, U.S. household debt
to income was 130 percent. Nor has China fallen into the grasp of Wall
Street alchemists concocting toxic real estate derivatives.

2. It's not a blanket bubble. Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai are
China's Florida, Nevada, and California: speculation and overbuilding
have clearly fed bubble valuations. But Nicholas Consonery, China
analyst at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, says
there's still plenty of unmet demand in China's second-, third-, and
fourth-tier cities.

3. The ubiquitous demand argument. Consonery also articulates the most
oft-heard reason for why the bubble doesn't have to burst: China
actually needs more construction, not less, to accommodate the mass
migration of Chinese from their rural past to their urban future.

While China's real estate picture doesn't necessarily stack up as
Dubai times 1,000, or even the United States circa 2006, similarities
to Japan's property bubble could be more salient. Rather than a quick
burst, Japan is still working through a long slow deflation from its
epic property bubble that peaked in the late 1980s. Patrick Chovanec,
professor at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management
in Beijing, who has advised private equity funds on China investments,
says that's the danger facing China. "Never underestimate the ability
of the Chinese to brush things under the rug, rather than
acknowledging losses and poor investments," Chovanec cautions. "That
can create a long-term drag on the economy."

Koyo Ozeki, head of Pimco's Asian credit analysis team, acknowledges
the Japan corollary (his comparison of China, Japan, and U.S. real
estate bubbles is below), but he believes a crucial difference is that
China has the ability to grow its way out of trouble. His worst case
scenario is that there's a two- or three-year cooling off period for
property values, but not a meltdown. "I think that it [would be] a
'correction,' as opposed to a 'burst of a bubble' similar to those
seen in the developed countries, because of China's structural demand
for modern houses," says Ozeki.

Source: Pimco estimates

The 437,000 Renminbi Question

What does this mean for your portfolio? When you have sharp minds on
both sides of the argument that should be a tip that making a big bet
on either is probably unwise. Moreover, China presents a few extra
challenges. Despite its large footprint -- China is expected to take
over Japan as the second largest economy in 2010 -- keep in mind we're
still talking about an emerging market.

Volatility and surprises (both upside and downside) are the norm. Add
in the fact that China's financial system and data reporting aren't
exactly open source code and you have another layer of complexity. And
even the China bears are careful to point out that they have no clue
when the bubble will burst. "We are not calling for an impending
crash," Chanos reminded the LSE crowd. Rogoff, former chief economist
of the IMF and co-author of This Time is Different, which chronicles
the long history of global financial calamities, recently told
Business Week he believes the liquidity deluge in China will
eventually culminate in enough bad debt to cause China's economic
growth to slow to just 2 percent to 3 percent a year. But as for when,
well, Rogoff would only pin it down to some time in the next 10 years,
and added that the setback would be short-term, not a Japanese-style
slow bleed.

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/video/whats-wrong-with-the-recovery/356913/?tag=contentMain;contentBody

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-24/rogoff-says-china-crisis-may-trigger-regional-slump-update1-.html

Given all that uncertainty, it seems wise to channel Pascal's Wager:
Acknowledge you might be wrong and adjust your portfolio accordingly.
In this instance, that's an argument for taking a look at what might
happen if in fact China's bubble blows so explosively that it sends
the economy into a severe downturn. Here's how your portfolio could be
affected:

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/article/economic-outlook-could-things-go-too-well/353298/?tag=contentMain;contentBody

Stocks: China is the third largest economy behind the U.S. and Japan,
and it is expected to push its way to number two this year. The IMF
forecasts that China will grow 10 percent, more than double the
overall world rate. If the bubble does in fact burst, growth will slow
and we could be in for round two of a global recession. That's an
argument for being cautious with equities and making sure your
emergency cash fund stays stuffed.

U.S. Treasuries: China holds about 10 percent of outstanding Treasury
debt; it jockeys with Japan from month-to-month for the top spot among
foreign investors. If China's economy hit the skids, one theory is
that it might choose to sell off Treasuries to raise capital for
spending back home. But dumping Treasuries is far from an easy call
for China, as it would depress the value of its Treasury portfolio and
cause the renminbi to rise in value (and the dollar to fall), which is
not ideal for its exports. Questions about how China will handle its
cache of U.S. Treasuries will likely keep the bond market on edge.
That's just another risk factor to add to why Treasuries aren't
exactly the safest investment right now.
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/retirement-planning/blog/financial-independence/would-you-lend-to-tim-geithner-on-these-terms/745/?tag=content;col1

Emerging market funds and ETFs: These are the most obvious losers if
China falters. It's not just that China represents 17 percent of the
MSCI Emerging Market Index -- the single largest country weight -- but
that so many of the other emerging markets, especially those rich in
resources such as Brazil and Russia, need China to remain a hungry
consumer. Overweighting emerging markets seems especially dicey right
now, despite the sector's recent strong performance. But even beyond
the implications of a China bubble, it's also wise to understand that
the fastest-growing economies don't always produce the highest
investment returns.
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/wise-investing/growth-in-china-india-and-brazil-might-not-mean-great-investment-returns/1002/?tag=content;col1

Bubble or not, one thing is clear: China is teeing itself up for
plenty of volatility in the coming years. And it will affect the whole
world. "Even with the strong long-term fundamentals, any market that
has experienced such rapid growth creates its own fragility," says
investment banker Euan Rellie, senior managing director of Business
Development Asia LLC. "That makes it certain there will be declines
and corrections."

More on MoneyWatch:

China's Growth Threatened by Inflation, Or Is It Deflation?
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/against-grain/chinas-growth-threatened-by-inflation-or-is-it-deflation/481/?tag=contentMain;contentBody

Video: Why You Should Worry About China
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/video/why-you-should-worry-about-china/385526/?tag=contentMain;contentBody

The China Boom: A Sure Thing NOT to Bet on in 2010
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/retirement-planning/blog/financial-independence/china-the-sure-thing-not-to-bet-on-in-2010/677/?tag=content;col1

Video: Why You Need Emerging Markets in Your Portfolio
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/video/investors-why-you-need-china-and-brazil/388541/?tag=contentMain;contentBody

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503983_162-20000790-503983.html

China : Shifting Concentration Of Real Wealth
By: Indranil Sen Gupta Friday, March 19, 2010 9:56 AM

In my last column I discussed about the immense potentiality of china
towards creation of wealthy citizens. I have tried to depict the true
picture of the Chinese government, which helps to increase and develop
the citizens of china. It clearly points out those Chinese economic
policies are helping to reduce the gap of rich and poor. The proof of
the pudding is that China ranks No 2 on Forbes billionaires list.
Moreover 27 of them have made into the list for the first time and
that also at a point of time when the world economy is fighting
enormously with the recession nights.

I ended the report with a prelude to this topic where I will again try
my level best to bring forth the policy behind making Chinese citizen
and economy so surprising to the world economy. But before that we all
need to have a quick look towards the covered up journey of China.

If we look into the historic position of Chinese economy it will very
hard for any one to believe about the turn around been formalized in
to shape of today's Chinese economy.

• China's industries developed and grew from 1927 to 1931. Though
badly hit by the Great Depression from 1931 to 1935 and Japan's
occupation of Manchuria in 1931, industrial output recovered by 1936.

• By 1936, industrial output had recovered and surpassed its previous
peak in 1931 prior to the Great Depression's effects on China.

• This is best shown by the trends in Chinese GDP. In 1932, China's
GDP peaked at 28.8 billion, before falling to 21.3 billion by 1934 and
recovering to 23.7 billion by 1935.

• In 1978, China was to witness one of the most rapid periods of
change in her 5,000 year history.

• 30 years later, China had developed from an economically desolate
and ideological-driven country into an industrial powerhouse, rapidly
overtaking developed western nations in recession.

• In the 1990s, many state enterprises were privatized and private
individuals were allowed to create companies. In 1990, the Shanghai
Stock Exchange was reopened after Mao first closed it 41 years
earlier.

• It also established a series of "special economic zones" in which
foreigners could invest in China taking advantage of lower labor
costs.

This investment helped the Chinese economy boom. In addition, the
Chinese government established a series of joint ventures with foreign
capital to establish companies in industries hitherto unknown in
China.

• By 2001, China became a member of the World Trade Organization,
which has boosted its overall trade in exports/imports—estimated at
$851 billion in 2003—by an additional $170 billion a year.

• In 2006, an estimated $699.5 billion of foreign investment was
present in China. A great deal of this investment came from Chinese-
speaking regions such as Hong Kong and Taiwan, who was the first to
invest in China. Japanese and Western investment followed.

So now its well clear to my readers about the encapsulated journey of
today's Chinese economy from the era of 1930.But all these were in the
initial days were only plans or policies. How did they materialize is
the point to be analyzed.

They have been materialized due to one single factor that is the
education. Education not only in schools and college levels, but also
to create the huge untapped potentiality of skilled and semi skilled
education and educated mass of population. We all know that china
posses one of the largest population. The world at times used to
critics this huge mounting population of china. But china and its
government's decades after decade have converted their biggest weak
point in to their biggest strength. Today china enjoys the huge
potentiality of its consumers and consumption.

It have created the largest pool of skilled and semi skilled workers
and employees .What we say in corporate term Blue Collard Jobs. China
has used its cheap commodity resources to create world best products
and cheap products. Educations particularly in science field have
helped china to become the supreme power of technology. China have
created the world finest products through its massive and continuous
never ending technological innovations. It have created scientist and
researchers equivalent to the western world. All these have been
created on the wheel of proper and improvised education system
provided by Chinese governments.

We have discussed many times a about the Chinese economic growth
models and the huge reserves and its stock gold piles. But among all
these the real growth model is the development of education system in
china. Its real wealthy citizens are the ones who gets education and
take the future responsibility of Chinese economy. China is making a
shift of its wealth. Its busy in shaping up the fortune of the
citizens of china.

If china have become the No.2 in Forbes billionaires list it ca be
clearly declared without any second thought that China deserves to be
crowned with No.2

Very recently china is going to bring a change in the education
system.

• China plans to revamp its university admissions system, allowing
students to take subject-specific tests.

• Currently access to university is entirely dependent on the score
students gets on a two-day test on a wide range of subjects.

• A little more than 10.2 million students take the exam each year,
and only about 25% of them get in. The vast majority of those who
don't make the cut go straight into the work force. China is trying to
bring change into its education system so that the vast majority can
reap the benefits of education. Moreover this will also increase the
talent pool of Chinese new generation. More White Collard Jobs will be
created resulting free dependence of the economy.

The schools and colleges have been asked to develop and promote
create thinking minds within the students. This will enable the future
growth of china. Just imagine when many countries in the west are busy
to resolve the post war situation and busy in exercising images of
super power, China is creating and shaping its future. China is
thinking way ahead of another 30years from now. Where as many
countries in the west who are busy to come out of the bad sins
committed through speculative economic and business growth modules
adopted by them.

China is thinking to develop the nation where ideas will be sold and
other economies will buy them paying hefty amount Products will be
replaced by ideas. A time might come when the Chinese economy will
increase the taxation for selling only innovative ideas. It might
sound funny but juts imagine the growth model and the future strategy
adopted and being implemented by china towards developing its economy.

It can be said that China is SHIFTING CONCENTRATION OF WEALTH. Western
economies will become 2nd rank economies and China will come under
developed economies rank.

Today after so many years US and other economies have identified that
the real growth of any economy lies in the hands of education system.
It can created speculative gains and growth for shorter time frame but
if its looks within the thin line of economic growth the results are
beyond speculation. Today the US government is buying in shaping up
the education system. It asks its citizens to create scientist doctors
and researchers. Since it feels very well that the in the coming
decade other economies will take over the super power crown.

Today US have realized the mistakes it have committed and now bringing
radical changes in the education system to shape up the future. Very
recently US is emphasizing to improve students and teachers instead of
punishing under performing schools. US have 33% under performing
schools. Unfortunately the list is increasing each day without
rewinding back. US is also going spend four-billion dollar more on
education system.

At the end I would like to conclude the series with this note that all
these analysis of the education system was not to criticize but to
bring forth the true portrait being painted by the world and China
alone in the coming decades. We must understand the growth of any
economy never lies in numbers. It lies among all of us who are juts
like you reading this article. It is we who will bring the economic
growth GDP to 20% in the next 3 decades from now. Its not the business
profit figures or the fiscal balance which will bring this growth.
Education is the foundation of economic growth of any nation on this
planet.

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A Slow Boat From China
Posted: March 19, 2010 at 5:08 am

China said it will send an envoy to Washington to discuss the friction
between the two countries over the value of the yuan. It will not
matter. Too many members of Congress, CEOs of major exporters, and
union presidents who use China’s trade practices as a target for their
plans to save millions of jobs need to get the yuan’s value to “float”
in the free market. That should, they reason, give America the chance
to compete with China’s exports based on price.

America can increase exports by two times what they are now, as the
President says will happen. China’s economy will be damaged because
the cost of its manufactured goods will rise. The day when China’s GDP
catches America’s will be pushed well beyond the horizon.
China’s leaders are clearly in the midst of trying to fashion some
compromise. The Emperor has had no clothes for too long. China has
protected its currency in an unseemly way, at least economically. The
world’s most populous nation can act on its own, or have the other
major world powers label it a currency manipulator. That will probably
lead to a series of large tariffs against Chinese goods which could
knock down its export traffic enough to put its economy into a funk.

China still has more leverage than the developed nations. They cannot
run their economies without cheap Chinese goods. It would hurt
consumer spending and damage the already hobbled retail industry.
China cannot be replaced as the “low-cost” provider of imports. It
does not need to mention that fact. It is easier for China to say it
cannot re-value the yuan because the action would ruin China’s cost
advantage and push Chinese workers out of jobs.

China’s envoy may seem to come to Washington hat in hand. He may
suggest some modest compromises on the yuan’s value. He will, however,
say in private and not in public, that the US would not want to see
Walmart go out of business because it cannot make a profit on goods
made in America.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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http://247wallst.com/2010/03/19/a-slow-boat-from-china/

March 19, 2010, 3:23 a.m. EDT
Currency stress tests indicate Beijing 'readying' yuan move

SocGen says one-off 5%-10% appreciation coming in April or May
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Additional evidence that China is preparing
to allow its currency to appreciate is accumulating, with various
government bureaus reportedly conducting their own "stress tests" on
the effect a stronger currency would have on the nation's industry.

Chinese media reported earlier in the week that the Ministry of
Finance would send researchers to study the impact of currency gains
on exporters and processing manufacturers. Meanwhile, findings from a
similar study, conducted by the Ministry of Commerce, are due to be
released by April 27, according to a report Friday in China Business
News.

ViewPoints: China, the New Dominant Economy?

Managing Director of The Carlyle Group, David Rubenstein, predicts
that China will surpass the U.S. as the dominant economy by the year
2035, in a ViewPoints interview with Deputy Managing Editor Alan
Murray.

The Commerce Ministry is also readying a six-point study on measures
that would boost Chinese imports and foster more balanced foreign
trade, according to broker Société Générale.

"China is not abandoning plans for yuan appreciation/revaluation,
despite what many are interpreting as a political environment that is
growing hostile to such a development," wrote SocGen economist Glenn
Maguire in Hong Kong.

The developments, Maguire said, indicate China is preparing to shift
its policy stance in a manner that will be "more substantial" than a
mere gradual yuan appreciation.

Instead, SocGen is forecast a one-off revaluation of 5% to 10% in
either April or May.

"A move of this magnitude will negate the risk of the protectionist
card being played in the U.S. midterm elections," Maguire wrote.

However, Standard Chartered analysts said Friday markets were now
expecting a lower rate of annual yuan appreciation this week, likely
as a result of contradictory signals emanating from Beijing on its
currency.

The futures markets were pricing in 2.2% to 2.8% of annual yuan
appreciation against the dollar, down from the 3% rise indicated last
week.

Standard Chartered said it was advisable for companies that trade with
China to begin hedging currency risk.

State firms' profits up

In a related development Friday, the Finance Ministry said profit
among state-owned enterprises rose 89% in the first two months of the
year.

SocGen's Maguire said the finding was yet more evidence China's of a
coming move on the currency.

Profits were healthy, except among companies that would benefit from a
stronger yuan, Maguire said, adding that some state companies such as
power producers and steel makers would see input cost fall under a
revaluation scenario.

Steel mills in particular are likely to face price pressures, as major
iron-ore miners are seeking to raise prices significantly in this
year's contracts.

"The impressive increase in profits over the past year suggests a
greater ability of the Chinese industrial complex to withstand a yuan
appreciation than many analysts are crediting," Maguire said.

Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Asia bureau chief, based in Hong Kong.

Comments (60)

Temporalist 6 hours ago+3 Votes (4 Up / 1 Dn)

Agreed Continent. The Chinese people will benefit from the increased
Yuan. They will start to buy their own goods and they will no longer
need to export as much.

This is just a red herring to distract people from the real problem
that most major countries around the world are broke and going more
broke; promising citizens more crazy entitlements and caving into
unions and labor forces while increasing debt and deficit spending to
all time highs.Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse therosierside 3
hours ago+1 Vote (1 Up / 0 Dn) Request sentAgree and Disagree. China
on the whole cannot afford their own products, and export of the
manufacturing of goods is their primary resource. I say call their
bluff. When push comes to shove, pull. However, I do agree, this is a
'red herring'. The irony drips in your statement.

Go ahead threaten away on the rise of the yuan. Ha, it's funny though.
It's like the U.S.S.R. all over again, and China got a taste for
capitalism, and the wealth from manufacturing. Their people will riot
if this happens, and their government is more scared of their own
people than the US. Power to the people!

The U.S. and the U.K. can make out on this the most, if they team up,
and remember their roots. It's amazing though, how we can easily shoot
straight, but might shoot ourselves in the foot instead. Let's also
not forget our arabic AND israeli allies. Power to the people!Reply
Link Track Replies Report Abuse iewgnem 2 hours ago0 Votes Request
sentA strong currency will enable Chinese consumers to buy more, but
if the US is any indication, what they buy might not be their own
goods.Reply

1REAGAN 6 hours ago-1 Vote (4 Up / 5 Dn)

The dollar is in free fall. If China were to continue pegging the
yuan, the result would be catastrophic. China must float the yuan.
Maybe it will help Americans to see that hussein is ruining the
American economy.

heisamazing 5 hours ago+1 Vote (3 Up / 2 Dn)

Yeah, don't let facts get in the way of an opinion. The dollar is not
in a free fall.

See 2 year graph: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dxy&sid=0&o_symb=dxy&freq=1&time=9

Its obvious where your bias lies.

1REAGAN 5 hours ago+1 Vote (4 Up / 3 Dn)

The dollar lost 30% versus the euro in 2009. The Keynesian huessy
policies will continue to weaken the dollar. The dollar is in free
fall.

The pound is also weakening because of the Keynesian policies of the
"British Labour Party."

Countries who implement socialist, Keynesian policies will have
weakening currencies. Countries who move toward free enterprise will
have strengthening currencies.

tjbrew 5 hours ago-1 Vote (3 Up / 4 Dn)

With a screen name like "1REAGAN", it's not hard to see your bias.
Yes, Reagan, the originator of large fiscal deficits and Reagonomics,
the start of the vast transfer of wealth to a few elite with "trickle
down" economics. If we just cut corporate taxes to zero that would fix
everything!

And the guy you're call "hussein" who in your opinion is "ruining the
American economy" ... yeah, the guy before him left the economy in
such great shape it's really hard to see why it hasn't all been fixed
by now! Sheesh ...

LBX 6 hours ago-1 Vote (1 Up / 2 Dn) Req

The RMB is likely to be floated in April.

Once it is floated, it will immediately DROP about 3 to 5%.

AmeriWho 5 hours agoEven (2 Up / 2 Dn)
RMB?

aiiiyo 2 hours ago+1 Vote (1 Up / 0 Dn)
same as Yuan
bull 6 hours ago+3 Votes (5 Up / 2 Dn)

China will not let the Yuan move more than 5% vs. the dollar per year
- forget about anything else as it will kill their export machine and
their grander plans......They do not care about the well being of
their people......they are just cheap labor in the Govt's mind.....

NO-FOMC 2 hours ago0 Votes Request senttrue maybe 10 years ago, and
yes i know that for a fact...but the bottom line is which is the
better of two evils....@#$%&! your reserves away by buying worthless
US assets (treasury debt) or help your domestic economy?

China realizes they are soooo done with eating table scraps from the
floor ...

iewgnem 2 hours ago0 Votes

I think a lot of Americans right now will rather see their welbeing
improve from getting employed as "cheap labor" making things for
exports than being able to buy more stuff from abroad with
unemployment checks. But then the US government cares too much for its
own people to let that happen.

UPJONES 5 hours ago+3 Votes (4 Up / 1 Dn)

The profit of the enterprise working on export processing business is
razor thin, at just about 2-5%. They will file bankruptcy right after
a 5% appreciation, and millions of Dagong Mei/Zai (Hunting girl/boys)
will lose their jobs.

China is buying time to do three things:

1. Build its domestic consumer market by increasing incomes/salaries

2. Perfecting the social secuity networks-Pension, Medicare and
apartments(Mostly for homeless)

3. Industrial transformation from manufacturing to innovation and
value added (Look at the neo-energy, nano, Aero, and especially bullet
trains, very competitve given the gov incentives and lots of "Cheap
and Good" engineers)

LBX 5 hours ago-1 Vote (1 Up / 2 Dn)

Many of them are actually getting negative gross margins. not to
mention net.

rojt88 4 hours ago+2 Votes (2 Up / 0 Dn)
LBX

The differences between Chinese and American accounting is caused by
pay differentials between the two cultures. Historically and
culturally, even dating back centuries, Mandarin officials and Chinese
executive pay is always held low. Much of this is due to Confucian
ethics and morality that wealth is not an indicator of success in
life. This is much different from the western ideal. Chinese
traditionally always hide income while American flaunt it.

Chinese businesses whose bosses serve for decades, like Hong Kong's Li
and Tung dynasties, always hide profits and exaggerate losses vs the
Western fashion of hiding loses and boosting profits so that rotating
CEOs can get their annual bonuses.

I estimate that the Chinese have 10-15% of their assets in hidden
accounts...or US$500billion (for PRC, HK, Taiwan). A lot of Chinese
inflation has been due to the sudden repatriation of much of this
offshore moneys into China due to financial instability in the west.

In a recent Chinese survey of foreign funds pouring into China over
the past decade, Hong Kong ranked first, then some islands in the
Caribbean ranked second and third. USA and Europe were last on the
list.

NO-FOMC 4 hours ago+1 Vote (2 Up / 1 Dn)

Funny how at the start of the century and after depression, USA had
the same characteristics...so where would you see china in 20+ years?
and where would you see USA in 20 years? remember..the world was
pegged to dollar gold before nixon. So last 20 years, our growth was
real or inflated?

NO-FOMC 2 hours ago+1 Vote (1 Up / 0 Dn)

US is buying time to avoid three things:

1. Financing a ever growing trade and acct deficit by depreciating the
USD to avoid default

2. Insure our world dominance by going to war so we wont lose our
world reserve currency title

3. the failure to realize a over leverage and underfunded US economy
will not be sustainable

Bastiat 5 hours ago+2 Votes (4 Up / 2 Dn)

Obama wants to run China. He found out that he could't run the US so
now he wants to run China. Obama, your problem is the US$, not the
yuan. You kept Bernanke, now deal with the imbecile.

RayO 5 hours agoEven (1 Up / 1 Dn)

Look out Walmart here comes a big Wave.

iewgnem 34 minutes ago0 Votes Request sentWhat if they simply
increase prices to maintain their margins? Considering in some
industries China consists of >90% of global output, it will still cost
importers less to absorb the cost than to spend billions in new
capital investments and time for production to ramp up. At the same
time re-exporters will see their material prices come down which will
also help to balance their margins.

All the talk about higher exchange rate driving Chinese exporters out
of business are assuming they don't have the power to pass the cost to
consumers on the other side. I suspect part of the stress test is to
see just how much they can raise the costs without losing their
business.Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse « « ‹ ‹

Temporalist 6 hours ago+3 Votes (4 Up / 1 Dn)

Agreed Continent. The Chinese people will benefit from the increased
Yuan. They will start to buy their own goods and they will no longer
need to export as much.

This is just a red herring to distract people from the real problem
that most major countries around the world are broke and going more
broke; promising citizens more crazy entitlements and caving into
unions and labor forces while increasing debt and deficit spending to
all time highs.

therosierside 3 hours ago+1 Vote (1 Up / 0 Dn)

Agree and Disagree. China on the whole cannot afford their own
products, and export of the manufacturing of goods is their primary
resource. I say call their bluff. When push comes to shove, pull.
However, I do agree, this is a 'red herring'. The irony drips in your
statement.

Go ahead threaten away on the rise of the yuan. Ha, it's funny though.
It's like the U.S.S.R. all over again, and China got a taste for
capitalism, and the wealth from manufacturing. Their people will riot
if this happens, and their government is more scared of their own
people than the US. Power to the people!

The U.S. and the U.K. can make out on this the most, if they team up,
and remember their roots. It's amazing though, how we can easily shoot
straight, but might shoot ourselves in the foot instead. Let's also
not forget our arabic AND israeli allies. Power to the people!

iewgnem 2 hours ago0 Votes

A strong currency will enable Chinese consumers to buy more, but if
the US is any indication, what they buy might not be their own goods.

1REAGAN 6 hours ago-1 Vote (4 Up / 5 Dn)

The dollar is in free fall. If China were to continue pegging the
yuan, the result would be catastrophic. China must float the yuan.
Maybe it will help Americans to see that hussein is ruining the
American economy.

heisamazing 5 hours ago+1 Vote (3 Up / 2 Dn)

Yeah, don't let facts get in the way of an opinion. The dollar is not
in a free fall.

See 2 year graph: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dxy&sid=0&o_symb=dxy&freq=1&time=9

Its obvious where your bias lies.

1REAGAN 5 hours ago+1 Vote (4 Up / 3 Dn)

The dollar lost 30% versus the euro in 2009. The Keynesian huessy
policies will continue to weaken the dollar. The dollar is in free
fall.

The pound is also weakening because of the Keynesian policies of the
"British Labour Party."

Countries who implement socialist, Keynesian policies will have
weakening currencies. Countries who move toward free enterprise will
have strengthening currencies.Link Report Abuse tjbrew 5 hours ago-1
Vote (3 Up / 4 Dn) Request sentWith a screen name like "1REAGAN",
it's not hard to see your bias. Yes, Reagan, the originator of large
fiscal deficits and Reagonomics, the start of the vast transfer of
wealth to a few elite with "trickle down" economics. If we just cut
corporate taxes to zero that would fix everything!
And the guy you're call "hussein" who in your opinion is "ruining the
American economy" ... yeah, the guy before him left the economy in
such great shape it's really hard to see why it hasn't all been fixed
by now! Sheesh ...

LBX 6 hours ago-1 Vote (1 Up / 2 Dn)

The RMB is likely to be floated in April.

Once it is floated, it will immediately DROP about 3 to 5%.

AmeriWho 5 hours ago

Even (2 Up / 2 Dn)

aiiiyo 2 hours ago+1

same as Yuan

bullrunisbull 6 hours ago+3

China will not let the Yuan move more than 5% vs. the dollar per year
- forget about anything else as it will kill their export machine and
their grander plans......They do not care about the well being of
their people......they are just cheap labor in the Govt's mind.....

NO-FOMC 2 hours ago

true maybe 10 years ago, and yes i know that for a fact...but the
bottom line is which is the better of two evils....@#$%&! your
reserves away by buying worthless US assets (treasury debt) or help
your domestic economy?

China realizes they are soooo done with eating table scraps from the
floor ...R

I think a lot of Americans right now will rather see their welbeing
improve from getting employed as "cheap labor" making things for
exports than being able to buy more stuff from abroad with
unemployment checks. But then the US government cares too much for its
own people to let that happen.

UPJONES 5 hours ago+3 Votes (4 Up / 1 Dn)

The profit of the enterprise working on export processing business is
razor thin, at just about 2-5%. They will file bankruptcy right after
a 5% appreciation, and millions of Dagong Mei/Zai (Hunting girl/boys)
will lose their jobs.

China is buying time to do three things:

1. Build its domestic consumer market by increasing incomes/salaries

2. Perfecting the social secuity networks-Pension, Medicare and
apartments(Mostly for homeless)

3. Industrial transformation from manufacturing to innovation and
value added (Look at the neo-energy, nano, Aero, and especially bullet
trains, very competitve given the gov incentives and lots of "Cheap
and Good" engineers)

LBX 5 hours ago-1 Vote (1 Up / 2 Dn)

Many of them are actually getting negative gross margins. not to
mention net.

rojt88 4 hours ago+2 Votes (2 Up / 0 Dn)

LBX

The differences between Chinese and American accounting is caused by
pay differentials between the two cultures. Historically and
culturally, even dating back centuries, Mandarin officials and Chinese
executive pay is always held low. Much of this is due to Confucian
ethics and morality that wealth is not an indicator of success in
life. This is much different from the western ideal. Chinese
traditionally always hide income while American flaunt it.

Chinese businesses whose bosses serve for decades, like Hong Kong's Li
and Tung dynasties, always hide profits and exaggerate losses vs the
Western fashion of hiding loses and boosting profits so that rotating
CEOs can get their annual bonuses.

I estimate that the Chinese have 10-15% of their assets in hidden
accounts...or US$500billion (for PRC, HK, Taiwan). A lot of Chinese
inflation has been due to the sudden repatriation of much of this
offshore moneys into China due to financial instability in the west.

In a recent Chinese survey of foreign funds pouring into China over
the past decade, Hong Kong ranked first, then some islands in the
Caribbean ranked second and third. USA and Europe were last on the
list.

NO-FOMC 4 hours ago+1 Vote (2 Up / 1 Dn)

Funny how at the start of the century and after depression, USA had
the same characteristics...so where would you see china in 20+ years?
and where would you see USA in 20 years? remember..the world was
pegged to dollar gold before nixon. So last 20 years, our growth was
real or inflated?

NO-FOMC 2 hours ago+1 Vote (1 Up / 0 Dn)

US is buying time to avoid three things:

1. Financing a ever growing trade and acct deficit by depreciating the
USD to avoid default

2. Insure our world dominance by going to war so we wont lose our
world reserve currency title

3. the failure to realize a over leverage and underfunded US economy
will not be sustainable

Bastiat 5 hours ago+2 Votes (4 Up / 2 Dn)

Obama wants to run China. He found out that he could't run the US so
now he wants to run China. Obama, your problem is the US$, not the
yuan. You kept Bernanke, now deal with the imbecile.

RayO 5 hours agoEven (1 Up / 1 Dn) Re

Look out Walmart here comes a big Wave.

iewgnem 34 minutes ago

What if they simply increase prices to maintain their margins?
Considering in some industries China consists of >90% of global
output, it will still cost importers less to absorb the cost than to
spend billions in new capital investments and time for production to
ramp up. At the same time re-exporters will see their material prices
come down which will also help to balance their margins.

All the talk about higher exchange rate driving Chinese exporters out
of business are assuming they don't have the power to pass the cost to
consumers on the other side. I suspect part of the stress test is to
see just how much they can raise the costs without losing their
business.Reply Link Track Replies Report Abuse

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stress-tests-suggest-yuan-rise-coming-2010-03-19?reflink=MW_news_stmp

March 19, 2010, 3:31 p.m. EDT

U.S. stocks break win streak on jitters over Greece, India, oil

By Donna Kardos Yesalavich, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A retreat in energy stocks weighed on the
broader market Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average stalling
in its attempt to set its longest winning streak in more than 13
years.

The energy sector was the weakest category in a broad-based sell-off
as oil prices retreated near $80 a barrel. Worries about key overseas
economies also weighed on the market, which some said was due for a
pause after a solid run lately.

TODAY'S TOP MARKET STORIES

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• Technology stocks | Energy stocks
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• See all the latest markets video /conga/story/misc/markets.html
55637

The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed
(INDU 10,742, -37.41, -0.35%) fell 47 points, or 0.4%, to 10,731.93,
on pace to snap an eight-day winning streak, the first such run since
late August. A nine-day gain, if the Dow can manage a late-day
rebound, would represent the Dow's longest rally since November 1996.

A dive in energy prices fueled by an uptick in the dollar has made
that rosy outcome seem less likely as the session has played out. Oil
futures were recently off $1.75 at $80.45 a barrel after retreating
near $79 earlier in the session at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX
1,160, -5.92, -0.51%) , which slipped Thursday, recently was off 0.6%,
led by a 1.2% decline in its energy sector. Baker Hughes /quotes/
comstock/13*!bhi/quotes/nls/bhi (BHI 47.53, -1.84, -3.73%) slid 3.6%,
while Consol Energy /quotes/comstock/13*!cnx/quotes/nls/cnx (CNX
45.59, +0.04, +0.10%) and Massey Energy /quotes/comstock/13*!mee/
quotes/nls/mee (MEE 49.91, -1.74, -3.37%) were off more than 2% each.
Exxon Mobil /quotes/comstock/13*!xom/quotes/nls/xom (XOM 66.56, -0.48,
-0.72%) fell 1%, and Chevron /quotes/comstock/13*!cvx/quotes/nls/cvx
(CVX 74.17, -0.81, -1.08%) was down 0.6%.

"The commodities, like other risky assets, are taking a little bit of
a breather," said Russ Koesterich, managing director of BlackRock's
scientific active equity business. But he said it was encouraging that
both stocks and raw materials weren't declining even more.

"The market has had a big run-up, it's continuing to defy some of the
pessimists, and this happened on a bunch of factors," including benign
inflation readings and a decision by the Federal Reserve to keep its
rate target near zero, said Koesterich. "This is helping to keep a
floor under stocks."

Other central banks around the world, however, have become more wary
of inflation. On Friday, investors were spooked by the Reserve Bank of
India's move to increase its key lending rate to 5% and its borrowing
rate to 3.5%.

Uncertainty over possible financial aid for Greece also lingered,
hurting the euro. The U.S. dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0
(DXY 80.75, +0.52, +0.65%) , which heavily weights the euro in a
basket of currencies versus the greenback, was recently up 0.6%. See
more in Currencies.

Indexes tracking higher-risk corners of the stock market fared worse
than the Dow and S&P. The Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/comstock/10y!
i:comp (COMP 2,374, -16.87, -0.71%) was off 0.8%, while the Russell
2000 fell 1.2%.

Digits: Palm's Future in DoubtThe latest forecast and smart-phone
sales data from Palm is raising serious concerns about the company's
viability. Dow Jones Newswires' Roger Cheng joins Stacey Delo on
Digits to discuss. Plus, an unprecedented look at the finances behind
YouTube, the world's most successful video site, as well as the
growing number of vehicles offering a self-parking option.

The S&P's health-care sector was flat ahead of an expected weekend
vote on federal reforms.

"We've been significantly overweight in health care for many months
now with the expectation that when it passes -- good, bad or ugly --
that that certainty will allow the health-care stocks to breathe a
sigh of relief," said Harry Rady, chief executive and portfolio
manager of Rady Asset Management.

Among the sector's winners on Friday were UnitedHealth Group /quotes/
comstock/13*!unh/quotes/nls/unh (UNH 34.54, +0.15, +0.44%) and
WellPoint /quotes/comstock/13*!wlp/quotes/nls/wlp (WLP 65.19, +0.12,
+0.19%) , up more than 2% each. But Merck /quotes/comstock/13*!mrk/
quotes/nls/mrk (MRK 38.05, -0.01, -0.02%) slipped 1% after the Food
and Drug Administration warned about the increased risk of muscle
injury for patients taking an 80-milligram dose of its cholesterol
drug Zocor.

Among stocks to watch in other sectors, Boeing /quotes/comstock/13*!ba/
quotes/nls/ba (BA 71.34, +0.62, +0.87%) rose 0.9% after announcing
plans to increase production of its 777 and 747 aircraft earlier than
anticipated amid increasing demand. See more on Boeing.

Among stocks in focus, Palm /quotes/comstock/15*!palm/quotes/nls/palm
(PALM 4.02, +0.02, +0.44%) plunged 27%. The company reported a
narrower quarterly loss but warned of significantly lower revenue in
the current quarter amid disappointing sales of its latest
smartphones. Read more on Palm.

Trading volume was higher, with about 3.8 billion shares having
changed hands in New York Stock Exchange Composite volume recently,
compared with the recent full-day average of about 4.8 billion. The
increase came on so-called quadruple witching day, when contracts for
stock-index futures, stock-index options, stock options and single-
stock futures expire.

Treasury prices slipped. The 10-year note /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y
(UST10Y 3.69, +0.01, +0.27%) fell 1/32 to yield 3.678%.

More Market Snapshot

March 18, 2010 U.S. stocks' uneven session extends Dow win streak
http://store.marketwatch.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/PremiumNewsletters_CampaignTheTechnicalIndicator?dist=IYMLMSB1T
March 17, 2010 Dow win streak longest since August 2009
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-post-gains-in-early-trading-2010-03-17
March 16, 2010 U.S. stocks finish higher in cheering Fed
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-hold-near-flat-ahead-of-fed-2010-03-16
March 15, 2010 U.S. stocks make late-day rise, helped by Wal-Mart
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-mostly-lower-google-dips-wal-mart-up-2010-03-15
March 13, 2010 U.S. stock investors to use data as a road map
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-investors-to-use-data-as-a-road-map-2010-03-13

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-higher-led-by-boeing-2010-03-19

...and I am Sid Harth
Sid Harth
2010-03-22 18:37:19 UTC
Permalink
Bloomberg

Krugman Versus Roach Is Right Fight for Don King: William Pesek
March 21, 2010, 4:20 PM EDT
by William Pesek

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Don King, hop on a plane to China for the
fight of the year.

The world of economic forecasting just became more exciting, with even
a threat of violence. The legendary boxing promoter King can put Nobel
laureate Paul Krugman in one corner. In the other, Stephen Roach,
Morgan Stanley’s Asia chairman.

Location: Beijing, the focus of their spat.

Format: Steel cage, of course.

Prize: Bragging rights in world’s most heated debate.

Roach says a “baseball bat” should be taken to Krugman over his call
for a stronger yuan. Krugman is miffed that Roach is criticizing his
view that “China is adding to the problems of the rest of world.”

It hardly matters who wins the “Battle of Beijing.” The real story is
that this matchup is even necessary. It shows we are still only
debating the global imbalances we have been obsessing over for years
now -- not addressing them. The blame game continues.

Roach versus Krugman echoes the verbal clash between the U.S. and
Chinese governments. As this epic finger-pointing contest unfolds, we
are all losers. That goes for the richest investors, the savviest
corporate executives and the most unassuming of households from New
York to New Delhi.

Roach Versus Krugman

The trouble with Roach’s spat with Krugman is that both men are a bit
right, and both are a bit wrong. I am not taking the middle road here
or offering an ambiguous on-the-one-hand-on- the-other-hand analysis.
The truth really does lie somewhere in between, and that’s just the
point.

The Group of Two nations needs to get into a room and negotiate a
rebalancing of the world’s most important economies. Not take cheap
shots, not assign blame, but agree to do X, Y and Z over the next 12
to 24 months.

Yes, China needs to let the yuan appreciate (as Krugman argues). It
would reduce the pressure on China’s economy and trim a trade gap that
may eventually lead to a U.S. credit downgrade. The U.S. drastically
needs to increase savings (as Roach says). It must begin exporting
something other than debt to return the biggest economy to health.

One nation acting isn’t enough to fix the other’s problems. Nor is
unilateral action a panacea for global markets. These steps must be
taken in tandem and telegraphed transparently to both nations’
populations and markets.

Looking in Mirror

The opposite is happening. If only U.S. Senators Charles Schumer of
New York and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who are introducing
legislation to make it easier to punish China, looked in the mirror.
Spend less time beating up on China and more telling Americans to stop
living beyond their means.

If only U.S. lawmakers were more focused on financial reforms needed
to avoid another crisis. If only they would tell Americans that shared
responsibility is what’s needed to restore the U.S. brand. Tell
Americans that tax cuts aren’t always the answer. Why bother, when
China is assuming the scapegoat role that Japan played in the 1980s
and early 1990s?

And then there’s Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. If only he would admit
how many of China’s problems are wrapped up in the currency peg.
Forget the ill will it generates. Focus, instead, on inflation risks,
hot money flows and those $2.4 trillion of currency reserves with
which China is stuck.

Hypocrisy Reigns

China’s embryonic financial system won’t grow up until it can do more
borrowing in yuan and investors have a real bond market in which to
hedge stock holdings. Things won’t cool down until Chinese have
something to buy other than overpriced property. China is like an
Airbus A380 super-jumbo flying with a broken engine. It’s huge, it can
go a long way yet it’s operating unsteadily.

As hypocrisy reigns, think of the global economy as a game of musical
chairs. Everyone is tiptoeing around the dwindling number of chairs,
hoping to have one when the music stops. That might be fine if we had
more growth engines on which to rely.

The U.S. is still sputtering, Europe isn’t much better amid Greece’s
crisis, and Asia is still developing, but not without risks.
Politicians in Washington and Beijing seem to think that as long as
they find a chair when the game is over, all’s well.

Not so in this G-2 world. A Chinese crisis would reverberate
everywhere, including the U.S. as it’s beginning to stand again.
Another U.S. crisis could be even more devastating for China. Rapid
growth aside, it’s a developing economy that will find it harder to
generate domestic growth.

It would be fun to be a fly on the wall the next time Roach and
Krugman bump into each other. It would be highly entertaining if King,
who staged bouts for fighters such as Mohammad Ali and Mike Tyson,
could match the two economists.

If we can’t stop debating who is to blame for the sorry state of
global affairs, let’s get ready to rumble.

Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the
editor.

--Editors: David Henry, James Greiff.

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Bangkok at
***@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at
***@bloomberg.net

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Roach Spars With Krugman Over Call to Pressure China (Update1)
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O’Neill Says Renminbi Importance Less Than What West Thinks
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-17/o-neill-says-renminbi-importance-less-than-what-west-thinks.html
Roach Rebuffs Krugman Call to Pressure China on Yuan (Update2)
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-18/roach-says-baseball-bat-should-be-taken-to-krugman-on-yuan.html
Inner Mongolia Baotou Surges Most in China on Reserve Approval
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-11/inner-mongolia-baotou-surges-most-in-china-on-reserve-approval.html
Europe Relies on Exports to China as U.K., U.S. Sales Shrink
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-18/europe-relies-on-exports-to-china-as-u-k-u-s-sales-shrink.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-21/krugman-versus-roach-is-right-fight-for-don-king-william-pesek.html

Monday March 22, 2010
Promoting economic recovery
GLOBAL TRENDS
By MARTIN KHOR


A new report on the global economy suggests the US should solve its
over-consumption while Germany, Japan and China should boost their
domestic consumption.

FOR the past few weeks, there has been a shrill attack on Chinese
economic policy emanating from US Congress members and economists.

According to them, China’s policy of linking its currency to the US
dollar has undervalued the yuan, led to China’s large trade surplus
and is a major reason for America’s economic problems.

Some economists even try to blame this for the imbalances in the world
economy.

This blame game is now going beyond the rhetorical or the academic
realm.

If the US Treasury labels China as a country practising currency
manipulation in a report on April 15, it could trigger actions in
Congress to slap on an import surcharge on Chinese goods.

Economist Paul Krugman, one of those urging actions to “take on
China”, is suggesting a hefty 25% surcharge.

Such a drastic measure could trigger a trade war, which nobody needs
today when the global economy is trying to find its feet following the
worst recession in 60 years.

A recent report of the South Centre by its Special Economic Adviser
Yilmaz Akyuz (formerly chief economist of Unctad) throws interesting
light on the global economic imbalances, the situation in the major
countries, and what needs to be done.

The report, Global economic prospects: The recession may be over but
where next?, recognises that the US economy (that has high household
debt and trade deficit) has to adjust, and its over-consumption
problem has to be tackled.

But this adjustment will cause its own problems for many developing
countries as it may result in increased interest rates (which is bad
for indebted countries) and a higher dollar (exerting downward
pressure on currencies in developing countries in deficit, and on
commodity prices).

So far, the United States and China have adopted the strongest policy
response to the crisis with big fiscal stimulus packages and
aggressive easing of monetary policy.

In China, there has been high growth in exports, and this in turn
accounted for one third of Chinese GDP growth in the years before the
crisis.

But in the debate on the global economy, attention has focused on US-
China relations, to the neglect of the role of Germany and Japan,
according to the report.

These countries, like China, have been having large current account
surpluses (7.5% of GDP in Germany and 4.8% in Japan, before the
crisis).

They also have large trade surpluses with the United States (US$50bil
for Germany and US$75bil for Japan).

The overall trade surplus of China (11% of GDP) and its trade surplus
with the United States (US$270bil) is higher.

“However the contribution of Japan and Germany to global demand and
growth is much smaller than China’s, and their reliance on exports is
much greater,” says the report.

Firstly, the real domestic value of China’s trade surplus with the
United States is actually lower than the gross figure because there
are a lot of imported components in Chinese exports.

Thus in 2005, the trade surplus of China with the United States was US
$172bil in conventional terms, but it was only US$40bil in value-added
terms (the amount after deducting the import content of the exports of
both counties).

In the same year, Japan’s surplus with the United States was US$85bil.
Since the foreign content of Japan’s exports is lower than the foreign
content of US exports, in value added terms Japan’s surplus with the
United States turns out to be higher than China’s surplus.

Secondly, and more importantly, “Japan and, particularly, Germany have
been siphoning global demand without adding much to global growth,”
says Akyuz.

During 2002-07, exports grew 25 times faster than domestic demand in
Germany and 8.5 times in Japan, while the figure is less than three
for China.

While exports contributed 34% to GDP growth in China, they contributed
50% to Japan’s GDP growth and 143% to Germany’s growth in 2002-07.

In other words, even if there had been no export growth in China, the
GDP would still have enjoyed high growth; but without export growth,
Germany’s GDP would have fallen by about 1% a year during 2002-07.

The paper cites under-consumption as a major problem in Germany and
Japan. In Germany, there has been high unemployment and stagnant wages
because of an over-focus on price stability. In both countries, the
share of wages has fallen, thus suppressing consumption.

These two advanced countries need to increase their contribution to
global demand (and thus to the global recovery) by expanding their
domestic consumption through faster wage growth. Their increased
domestic demand and higher growth is needed to spur more imports and
reduce their trade surplus, which would contribute to other countries’
exports and GDP growth.

China, through its high growth and its reliance on both its own
domestic demand and exports, has contributed relatively more than the
two industrial countries to global growth, the report implies.

However, China obviously also needs to adjust. It cannot rely as much
as previously on exports due to the expected adjustment in the United
States and the slowdown in Europe, and it thus has to generate
domestic demand through significantly increasing its consumption,
whose share of GNP fell from 55% in the late 1990s to 36% at present.

Under-consumption is thus a major problem. Consumption has to grow
faster than both national income and investment in China in the
future. The significant fall in the share of wages would need to be
reversed.

Akyuz suggests a combination of policies promoting higher wages,
elimination of the gap between wage and productivity growth, incre­
ased budgetary transfers especially to rural households, and increased
public spending on health, education and housing in order to reduce
household precautionary savings.

However, even if China maintains its high GDP growth by switching from
exports to domestic demand, it cannot be expected to become the
locomotive for global growth. This is because there is a lot of
imported inputs going into China’s exports, whereas imports make up
only 8% of China’s domestic consumption.

“Consequently, a US$100 shift in the composition of aggregate demand
from exports to domestic consumption would reduce Chinese imports by
some US$40,” says the report. This has serious implications especially
for South-East Asian countries which supply a lot of the parts and
components to China for its exports.

As for exchange rates, the paper says that it is an important issue in
the adjusting of global trade imbalances, but currency movements do
not create additional demand for the global economy. Thus, they alter
relative growth rates rather than raising the overall global growth.

“Briefly, currency movements cannot address the problem of global
under-consumption associated with sluggish wages,” says Akyuz.

A depreciation of the dollar against the Chinese currency could reduce
Chinese exports and its trade surplus with the United States but would
not solve the under-consumption in China nor bring an increase in
domestic demand to offset the decline in exports.

It could even aggravate the under-consumption problem. Thus, the
exchange rate is not an appropriate instrument to address the under-
consumption problem and excessive reliance on exports in China.

The paper adds it is not clear how dollar depreciation against the
Chinese currency would address the root cause of the US problem of
over-consumption. It is unlikely to produce significantly faster
growth of exports to China.

Even if it reduces China’s exports to the United States, this may be
replaced by imports from other developing countries as long as US
consumers continue to live beyond their means.

Akyuz notes that the United States has run current account deficits in
the past four decades regardless of the strength of the dollar against
the currencies of its main trading partners, blaming Germany in the
1970s, Japan in the 1980s and now China. The yen has been rising
against the dollar during this period but this had no impact on the
surplus of Japan with the United States.

Thus, concludes the paper: “The solution should be sought primarily in
national policies designed to address problems of over-consumption in
the US and under-consumption in surplus countries.”

http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp?col=globaltrends&file=/2010/3/22/columnists/globaltrends/5908821&sec=Global%20Trends

Greek Crisis, Europe And New Risks For Economic Recovery
Source: By Uri Dadush, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Posted on: 21st March 2010
The global recovery is strengthening, with GDP growth estimates being
revised upward, emerging markets returning to long-term trend output
levels, and world trade, industrial production, and services
expanding.

Though still relatively mild by historical recovery standards, growth
in 2010 is likely to be modestly higher than consensus estimates, as
pointed out in the January Bulletin.

A rebalancing of demand in favor of emerging markets, especially
China, and confirmation that policy makers are resisting an early exit
from stimulus policies have buttressed prospects for the recovery to
continue into next year.

However, the Greek crisis and its possible spread to other
uncompetitive and fiscally vulnerable Euro area countries that
together account for 7.5 percent of world GDP has emerged as a
significant risk.

Global Recovery Strengthening

Upward revisions of GDP growth estimates for the fourth quarter of
2009 in the United States and the UK are signs of strength in the
global recovery. The Asian Development Bank is revising its 2010
economic growth forecast for developing Asia to around 7 percent, up
from 6.6 percent last December.

Several emerging markets are returning to trend growth, including
China, India, Indonesia, and Argentina.

World trade remains below its pre-crisis peak but is expanding very
rapidly. World trade rose at a record monthly pace of 4.8 percent in
December, following a 1.1 percent increase in November. Imports in
emerging economies grew 7.8 percent (m/m) in December while import
growth in advanced economies rose 2.7 percent that month.

The manufacturing sector has continued to expand as well. The United
States, Japan, and Germany all exhibited strong industrial production
(IP) growth in January. Surveys point to continued expansion: the Euro
area’s manufacturing PMI rose to 54.2 in February, up from 52.4 in
January (a reading above 50 represents expansion).

Importantly, growth also appears to be extending into services. The
U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index
rose from 50.5 in January to 53.0 in February. While the UK’s
corresponding index grew at a faster pace, the Euro area’s expansion
slowed.

Despite these improvements, however, private sector demand growth in
the advanced countries remains fragile and overly dependent on
government stimulus amid high unemployment, weak housing markets, and
hesitant consumers.

Rebalancing is Happening

Declining external deficits and surpluses represent another
encouraging development that enhances the sustainability of the
recovery. Total current account imbalances, the sum of current account
balances across deficit and surplus countries in absolute value terms,
narrowed to 3.6 percent of world GDP in 2009, down from 5.7 percent in
2008. Imbalances are expected to expand only marginally in 2010.

The U.S. current account deficit, the world’s largest, declined from
5.2 percent of GDP in 2007 to 3 percent in 2009. Given the relative
strength of the recovery, however, the U.S. deficit is projected to
widen to 3.4 percent in 2010. The euro’s weakness will also delay
rebalancing in the United States by bolstering the dollar. The U.S.
Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket
of currencies, has risen by about 8 percent since November. On the
other hand, China’s current account surplus declined from 9.6 percent
of GDP in 2008 to about 6 percent in 2009 and, helped by strong
domestic demand and import growth, is projected to fall further to 4.7
percent in 2010.

Emerging Market Growth Sustained—So Far

Capital flows to emerging markets have regained strength, with the IIF
predicting that net private inflows will rise to over $700 billion in
2010, up two-thirds from 2009, but still down 45 percent from their
peak in 2007. Returns in equity and bond markets there have also been
spectacular, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index doubling over the
last year, though there has been little change since December 2009.
Strong growth and balance sheet fundamentals appear to justify these
advances.

At the same time, according to JP Morgan, the MSCI Emerging Market
Index’s price-to-book-value ratio was 2.45 in February, above its
average of 2.1 since 2000, and there are other indications that some
markets may be overreaching. The Brazilian Bovespa and Mexican Bolsa,
for example, are only 6.3 percent and 1.2 percent below 2008 and 2007
peaks, respectively. In China, property prices in 70 cities rose 10.5
percent (y/y) in February, the fastest pace in 23 months, while
consumer prices rose a higher than expected 2.7 percent (y/y), the
most in sixteen months.

Though it is too early to speak of a speculative bubble in emerging
markets, prospects for very low interest rates in the advanced
countries continuing well into 2011 and the wide growth gap favoring
emerging markets suggest that the classic conditions for a bubble may
be starting to build.

Greek Crisis a Major Source of Risk

Greece is a small economy, but its problems—a massive secular loss of
competitiveness and rapidly rising public debt—are shared to different
degrees by at least four other Euro area members (Portugal, Ireland,
Italy, and Spain), whose combined GDP is 30 percent larger than
Germany’s. A sovereign debt crisis affecting all or a subset of these
countries will slow European growth, depress the euro, and could
eventually spill over into a global confidence crisis that would
affect some vulnerable emerging markets (Turkey is one example) and
other advanced countries. Japan, whose public debt/GDP burden—though
held domestically—is on track to be almost twice that of Greece, could
also come into the markets’ crosshairs.

Europe Under Stress

Greece is likely to be rescued by the IMF or its European partners, or
at least supported in an orderly restructuring of its debt, but its
competitiveness problem will persist for years to come. Even if its
structural adjustment measures succeed, they will take years to
complete and Greek growth will remain depressed. The same will apply—
though to a lesser degree—in the other vulnerable European countries.
These problems will severely test the political support for the
European project in the vulnerable countries as well as in Germany and
the other countries that will have to come to the rescue. One or more
countries leaving the Euro area, though still a low probability
scenario, can no longer be ruled out.

Exit Strategies Will Remain Cautious

Though countries are already paving the path to exit from stimulus,
and some, like Australia, have taken steps along it, the larger
advanced economies are maintaining expansionary monetary and fiscal
policies and are likely to continue to do so at least into 2011,
reflecting the weakness of private sector demand. Although the Fed may
raise U.S. interest rates later this year from their record low
levels, the still-low rate will continue to powerfully stimulate
activity. Given the serious risk of prolonged stagnation in the
European periphery, there are worthy arguments for Germany, and other
countries that can afford it, to increase fiscal stimulus in the
coming years, and for the European Central Bank to maintain its
expansionary stance for the foreseeable future. Monetary policy will
remain expansionary in Japan as well.

In emerging Asia, where the recovery began, policy makers have already
begun to wind down stimulus efforts. Over the past two months, China
has increased reserve requirements several times and repeatedly urged
banks to curb lending. India has also outlined plans to unwind its
$162 trillion fiscal stimulus package.

As economies continue to recover at different speeds and international
interest rates remain low, the coming years will be marked by
increased carry trades and exchange rate fluctuations, implying a
heightened risk of bubbles and speculative attacks. Sovereign debt
problems, which had disappeared from sight in the pre-crisis years,
have again become a central source of risk—underscoring the need for
policy makers to develop credible, long-term fiscal consolidation
frameworks and to build the political consensus necessary to execute
them once the global recovery is on firmer footing.

Uri Dadush is a senior associate in and the director of Carnegie’s
International Economics Program.

http://thegovmonitor.com/world_news/united_states/greek-crisis-europe-and-new-risks-for-economic-recovery-26423.html

m the Mano Economic Intelligence Forum, Japan, looking at COP 16 of
the UNFCCC in Cancun, history shows that tendencies by countries to go
it alone, including on environment, lead to worldwide economic
decline.

Posted on Sustainabilitank.info on March 21st, 2010
by Pincas Jawetz (***@SustainabiliTank.com)


JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES

Climate change battle demands cooperation, not new appliances
By TERUHIKO MANO
Special to The Japan Times, Monday, March 22, 2010.
The Japanese economy posted growth in the last quarter, but I would
like to make a few observations about the components of the growth.





The revised figures for gross domestic product in October-December
2009, announced on March 11, showed that economic activity grew 0.9
percent on the previous quarter for an annualized rate of 3.8 percent.
While faster than anticipated progress in inventory adjustment was one
of the factors that contributed to the downward revision of the
preliminary quarterly GDP figure of 1.1 percent (4.6 percent
annualized), capital investment managed to rise 0.9 percent for the
first growth in seven quarters.

Based on the revised data, the government last Monday reported the
first improvement in the Japanese economy since July 2009, describing
its as “picking up steadily,” even though its sustainability is weak
and unemployment remains high.

But closer examination of the data behind the rosy results raises some
questions.

First, it should be noted that the 0.9 percent growth can be broken
down to 0.4 point for internal demand and 0.5 point for external
demand. Personal consumption — the largest component of GDP — expanded
a robust 0.7 percent, an uptick that could be attributable to the Eco-
point and subsidy programs launched by the government to promote
replacement demand for energy-efficient appliances and fuel-efficient
cars.

However, we need to be aware that these programs are eating into
future demand. Consumers are believed to be pushing up purchases of
new cars and TVs to beat the deadline for the popular programs whether
their older products are still usable or not.

Naturally, these programs cannot be continued indefinitely. Similar
campaigns in other advanced economies show that spending can drop off
rapidly once the incentive programs end.

In the past, Japan was in the habit of declaring an “economic
recovery” whenever GDP grew for three consecutive quarters. This time
the optimism was muted — perhaps because officials are well-aware of
the risk of a fallback in consumer demand.

A second point is that governments are pushing for these incentive
programs not just as environmental campaigns, but also as a way to
shore up consumer spending battered by recession.

The global financial crisis jacked up unemployment in many advanced
economies as competition against emerging economies climbed and much
of the world entered recession.

The slump is deep and eating into consumers’ disposable income,
including overtime pay and bonuses. As the effects of globalization
sink in, wages are decoupling from earnings in many advanced
economies.

Third, the amount of energy supposedly saved by “eco-friendly”
products needs to be weighed against the energy expended to make them
and to dispose of the old ones being replaced.

A household may be able to halve its electricity bill by buying a new,
energy-efficient air conditioner, but if the savings are canceled out
by the cost of the energy needed to make the new appliance and get rid
of the old one, can you say the process is really environment-
friendly?

The mass production and mass consumption Japan embraced after the war
contributed to its “miracle” economic growth, but it also caused
rampant pollution and the loss of the traditional Japanese belief of
the value of making good use of things.

Of course we need to save energy. But we should also take a look at
the additional burden being placed on the global environment by the
introduction of energy-saving products.

These are not Japan’s problems alone. Countries around the world need
to cooperate to assess the overall burden on the environment and deal
with the problem. When the economy goes bad, each country tends to put
priority on its own interests. History shows such tendencies lead to
worldwide economic decline.

Progress eluded the COP15 climate change conference in Copenhagen in
December as national interests trumped international cooperation on a
global issue. The author hopes that both the advanced and developing
economies can overcome these issues and seek a more cooperative path
toward progress at the COP16 conference in Mexico in November.

Teruhiko Mano is chairman of the Mano Economic Intelligence Forum.

http://www.sustainabilitank.info/2010/03/21/from-the-mano-economic-intelligence-forum-japan-looking-at-cop-16-of-the-unfccc-in-cancun-history-shows-that-tendencies-by-countries-to-go-it-alone-including-on-environment-lead-to-worldwide-econ/

Bloomberg

Yen Near Week High Against Euro; Central Banks May Raise Rates
March 21, 2010, 11:01 PM EDT
By Ron Harui

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- The yen reached a one-week high against the
euro on speculation more central banks will follow India in raising
interest rates, damping demand for higher- yielding assets.

Japan’s currency strengthened versus all of its 16 major counterparts
after the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly raised borrowing costs on
March 19, fueling expectations policy makers in nations such as China
will do the same. The euro was near a two-week low against the dollar
on concern the European Union will fail to agree on financial aid for
Greece, reducing the appeal of assets in the 16-nation region.

“We’ve had India, and we’re assuming China is not too far away from a
formal rate hike,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at
Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “It’s something the market is going
to have to deal with, and it may unnerve markets a little bit. The yen
and dollar might be supported.”

The yen traded at 122.26 per euro as of 11:57 a.m. in Tokyo from
122.51 in New York last week, after rising to 122.20, the strongest
level since March 10. Japan’s currency was at 90.44 per dollar from
90.54. The dollar bought $1.3518 per euro from $1.3530 on March 19,
when it climbed to $1.3503, the highest since March 2.

Japan’s financial markets are closed today for a holiday.

Increase ‘Imperative’

The yen and the dollar extended gained versus most higher- yielding
currencies after India’s central bank said controlling price gains
became “imperative” after inflation accelerated to a 16-month high.
Policy makers raised the benchmark reverse repurchase rate to 3.5
percent from 3.25 percent and the repurchase rate to 5 percent from
4.75 percent. The decision came a month before the bank’s scheduled
policy meeting.

Central banks in Australia and Malaysia already raised borrowing costs
this month and China boosted its reserve- requirement ratio by half a
percentage point on Jan. 18 and Feb. 25. India’s Reserve Bank will
probably raise its benchmark again next month as the first increase in
two years is only the initial step in its fight against inflation,
according to BNP Paribas SA and Standard Chartered Plc.

“The surprise factor in the RBI’s action was not that they hiked
rates, but that it took place ahead of the next policy meeting, a fact
that reflects the urgency to tackle inflation pressures,” Mitul
Kotecha, head of global currency strategy at Credit Agricole CIB in
Hong Kong, wrote today in a research note. “Further rate hikes are
likely over coming months as the bank moves further to contain
inflation.”

Ringgit, Won

Malaysia’s ringgit and South Korea’s won led Asian currencies lower as
Asian stocks declined following India’s interest-rate increase.

The ringgit extended last week’s decline, falling 0.4 percent to
3.3125 per dollar and the won slid 0.4 percent to 1,137.30. The MSCI
Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares dropped 0.6 percent.

The euro fell for a fourth day versus the yen after German Chancellor
Angela Merkel told investors they shouldn’t expect this week’s EU
summit to agree on any aid package for Greece.

EU leaders must not create “illusions” for markets by building
expectations for Greek aid, she said in an interview with
Deutschlandfunk that aired yesterday. Her remarks came after Greek
Prime Minister George Papandreou and European Commission President
Jose Barroso said the EU should spell out its rescue plan at the March
25-26 summit in Brussels.

‘Weigh on the Euro’

“Ahead of the EU summit, concerns about Greece’s funding difficulties
are expected to weigh on the euro,” said Danica Hampton, a senior
markets strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington.
“Meantime, the dollar will likely remain firm as investors fret about
how the global economy will cope with further stimulus removal.”

Advanced economies face “acute” challenges in tackling high public
debt, and unwinding existing stimulus measures will not come close to
bringing deficits back to prudent levels, said John Lipsky, first
deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, in a
speech yesterday at the China Development Forum in Beijing.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six
major U.S. trading partners including the euro, rose 0.1 percent to
80.810.

Australia’s dollar fell for a third day after gold, the nation’s third-
most valuable commodity export, slumped the most in six weeks on March
19.

Gold futures for April delivery dropped 0.1 percent today after
sliding 1.8 percent on March 19, the biggest loss for a most-active
contract since Feb. 4. Crude oil, Australia’s fourth most valuable
commodity export, declined for a third day.

“There’s a little bearishness creeping into the market with gold
falling and a lack of confidence on the Greek rescue package,” said
Ian Fowler, senior corporate foreign exchange dealer at OzForex Ltd.
in Sydney. “The first sniff of negative news over Greece and the
resulting sell-off in commodity prices and the Aussie comes down.”

--With assistance from Patrick Donahue in Berlin, Joyce Koh in
Singapore and Candice Zachariahs in Sydney. Editors: Nicholas
Reynolds, Garfield Reynolds

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at
***@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nicholas Reynolds at
***@bloomberg.net.

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Bloomberg

China Bubble Anxiety Doesn’t Mean Shun Stocks: John Dorfman
March 21, 2010, 9:16 PM EDT
by John Dorfman

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- In the 1980s, a crucial question for portfolio
managers was what to do about Japan. Today, the parallel question is
what to do about China.

From 1978 through 1989, Japan gave the U.S. heavy competition for
world leadership in business and finance. Japanese stocks rose 12
years in a row, gaining a cumulative 700 percent, or almost 19 percent
a year, compounded.

Since then, the Nikkei-225 Stock Average has fallen 73 percent, or 6.3
percent a year, with 11 down years in the past 20. Clearly, those
managers who were overweight Japan in the 1980s did great, while those
who have favored Japan in more recent years did poorly.

Today it is China that challenges the U.S. for world economic
leadership. Since the end of 1990 the Shanghai Stock Exchange
Composite Index has risen more than 2,400 percent, for an annual
return of -- you guessed it -- almost 19 percent a year.

Is China an echo of Japan, destined to flash and then flame out? No
one knows for sure. Personally, I doubt it.

There are powerful reasons to invest in China, and also some strong
reasons not to. Let’s start with the negatives.

China’s big cities, notably Shanghai and Beijing, have been overbuilt,
a situation that might hurt both real-estate owners and banks. The
country’s one-child policy means the population is shrinking. The
Chinese government doesn’t embrace free speech or property rights as
understood in the U.S.

Some people fear that the rapid growth in China’s economy and stock
market is a bubble, soon to be pricked.

In China’s Favor

Now, let’s turn to the positives. China’s budget deficit is mild
compared with that of the U.S. Its population is younger. And its
economy is growing faster.

China’s gross domestic product growth exceeded 7 percent in eight of
the past 10 years. During that time the best the U.S. did was 3.8
percent in 2003. In eight of the past 10 years the U.S. has achieved
less than 3 percent growth.

China’s education system is pretty good, and so is its infrastructure
(roads, bridges, railroads, communications). Its people have a strong
work ethic, and its government is determined to make China a world-
class competitor in most industries.

In the worldwide economic crisis of the past three years, China held
up better than most countries. In 2009, for example, China’s GDP
increased 10.7 percent. That compares with growth of 0.1 percent in
the U.S., shrinkage of 3.9 percent in Japan, and shrinkage of 2.4
percent in Germany.

Is China fudging its growth figures? Intelligent people have raised
the question, but on the whole it seems to me that independent
variables such as imports of steel and copper are consistent with the
picture the Chinese government paints.

Five Picks

On balance, I believe it is reasonable for U.S. investors to put a
portion of their assets in China. I suggest 5 percent for most
investors and 10 percent for those with high risk tolerance.

More than 200 Chinese companies trade in the U.S., and more than 100
of them have a market value of $100 million or more. Here are five
Chinese stocks that I think deserve consideration.

China Marine Food Group Ltd., based in Fujian, processes, distributes
and markets fresh fish and seafood. I like its profit margins (pretax
margin of 26 percent in 2008) and low debt (less than 8 percent of
equity). The stock sells for 12 times earnings.

Tianyin Pharmaceutical Co., with headquarters in Chengdu, makes
medicines based on traditional Chinese herbal remedies. Its debt is
low (less than 3 percent of equity) and it earned an admirable 21
percent return on equity in the fiscal year ended June 2009. The stock
sells for 11 times earnings.

Going Mobile

Sutor Technology Group Ltd., based in Changsha, makes galvanized
steel, steel pipe and steel sheet for appliances and cars. Its stock
is selling well below book value (assets minus liabilities) per share.

Universal Travel Group, located in Shenzhen, is a travel agency that
has grown to $98 million in revenue last year from $10 million in
2006. Since the company started trading publicly in 2005, earnings
have risen each year except for 2009. The company is debt-free and the
stock sells for eight times earnings.

One can also get exposure to China by buying stock in companies that
have their headquarters in Hong Kong but do most of their business in
mainland China. One that I like is China Mobile Ltd., the world’s
largest phone operator by market value.

China Mobile’s revenue is running at an annualized pace of about $64
billion, up from about $30 billion in 2005. Analysts estimate that it
earned 83 cents a share (in U.S. currency) in 2009, up from about 80
cents the year before. The company has increased its earnings each
year since 1999. The stock sells for about 12 times earnings and has a
dividend yield of 3.7 percent.

Disclosure note: For clients and personally, I own shares of China
Mobile. I have no long or short positions in the other stocks
discussed in this week’s column.

Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the
editor.

--Editors: James Greiff, Laurence Arnold.

For Related Company News: CMFO US <Equity> CN TPI US <Equity> CN SUTR
US <Equity> CN UTA US <Equity> CN CHL US <Equity> CN 941 HK <Equity>
CN

To contact the writer of this column: John Dorfman at
***@thunderstormcapital.com

To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at
***@bloomberg.net

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Bloomberg

Asian Stocks Fall the Most in a Month on Concern Over Stimulus
March 21, 2010, 11:50 PM EDT
By Shani Raja

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell the most in a month after an
International Monetary Fund official said advanced economies will
struggle to tackle public debt and on concern central banks will boost
efforts to curb inflation.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, lost 1.7
percent in Sydney as commodity prices slumped after India’s central
bank unexpectedly raised interest rates last week. PetroChina Co., the
nation’s biggest energy producer, slumped 2.7 percent in Hong Kong
after agreeing to a takeover of Australia’s Arrow Energy Ltd. Posco,
Asia’s biggest maker of stainless steel, sank 2.9 percent in Seoul on
speculation global demand will slow.

“Investors are increasingly jittery about the inflationary outlook and
high levels of sovereign debt,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage
about $1.1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “The IMF’s
comments switch the spotlight to a medium-term limitation of the
global economy.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index fell 1.2 percent to 416.23 as of
12:30 p.m. in Tokyo, with four times as many stocks declining as
advancing. The gauge gained 1.3 percent last week after the U.S.
Federal Reserve pledged to keep borrowing costs near zero for an
“extended period” and as the Bank of Japan expanded a bank-loan
program.

Japan’s markets are closed today for a holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
Index dropped 2 percent, the biggest decline among Asia-Pacific equity
benchmarks. South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 1.2 percent, Australia’s
S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.8 percent, and China’s Shanghai
Composite Index was little changed.

Rate Surprise

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.7 percent. The gauge
declined 0.5 percent on March 19 as India’s surprise rate decision
that day spurred speculation that withdrawal of economic stimulus
policies will curtail global growth. India’s central bank raised
interest rates for the first time in almost two years, saying that
controlling price-gains was imperative after inflation accelerated to
a 16-month high.

“India raising rates is seen as a precursor to other big- spending
economies tightening fiscal measures, and we know how traders will
react to that,” said Chris Weston, a Melbourne- based research analyst
at IG Markets. “The narrative from the IMF shows it’s going to be a
bumpy ride for 2010, but the potential pullback should also entice
some fresh investment opportunities.”

‘Acute’ Challenges

Advanced economies face “acute” challenges in tackling high public
debt, and unwinding existing stimulus measures won’t come close to
bringing deficits back to prudent levels, John Lipsky, first deputy
managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said in a speech
yesterday at the China Development Forum in Beijing.

Materials- and energy-related companies fell the most among the 10
industry groups in the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index. BHP Billiton
dropped 1.7 percent to A$42.45, and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-
biggest mining company, lost 1.5 percent.

Crude oil retreated the most in three weeks in New York on March 19,
slumping 1.9 percent to settle at $80.68 a barrel, while copper
futures for May delivery dropped 0.7 percent to $3.3725 a pound.

Cnooc Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil explorer, sank 2.5 percent in
Hong Kong, while in Sydney, Santos Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest oil
and gas producer, dipped 0.8 percent to A$14.13. PT Bumi Resources,
Asia’s largest exporter of power- station coal, fell 2.9 percent to
2,500 rupiah in Jakarta trading.

Commodities, Valuations

PetroChina slumped 2.7 percent to HK$8.97. The company, along with
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, agreed to buy Australian coal- seam gas
producer Arrow Energy after raising their offer to A$3.5 billion ($3.2
billion). Arrow shares fell 3 percent to A$5.13 in Sydney.

Today’s decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index wiped out its
increase this year. Concern that governments will withdraw policies
that have fueled economic growth, and that Greece will struggle to
curb its deficit, has offset optimism from reports showing improving
U.S. manufacturing and employment.

Shares in the Asian gauge trade at 14.4 times estimated earnings,
compared with 15.1 times for the MSCI World Index. The world index has
risen 1.8 percent this year.

“There is still cause for optimism,” said Pengana’s Schroeders.
“Valuations overall remain attractive, bolstered by increasing levels
of merger-and-acquisition activity as consolidation amongst companies
in certain sectors continues.”

Posco sank 2.9 percent to 531,000 won in Seoul, while in Hong Kong,
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. lost 3.2 percent to HK$8.13. Baoshan Iron
& Steel Co., China’s largest publicly traded steelmaker, declined 1.9
percent to 8.12 yuan in Shanghai. BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia’s
biggest steelmaker, retreated 1.4 percent to A$2.78 in Sydney.

--Editors: Nicolas Johnson, John McCluskey.

To contact the reporter for this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at
***@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nicolas Johnson in
Tokyo at ***@bloomberg.net.

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Bloomberg

Euro Trades Near Three-Week Low Amid Signs Greek Aid in Doubt
March 22, 2010, 11:28 AM EDT
Ben Levisohn

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded near the lowest level in
almost three weeks versus the dollar as European leaders debated what
measures may be needed to aid Greece in tackling its budget deficit.

The yen rose against all of its major counterparts. Ulrich Wilhelm, a
German government spokesman, said European Union leaders may decline
to make a decision on financial aid for Greece at a summit this week
because the country hasn’t asked for help. Australia’s dollar and the
South African rand fell versus the greenback on concern global
sovereign debt burdens will stifle the economic recovery.

“The euro has been pretty volatile,” said Camilla Sutton, a Bank of
Nova Scotia currency strategist in Toronto. “It’s just ongoing
uneasiness about what will transpire in terms of support for weaker
euro members.”

The euro touched $1.3464, the weakest level since March 2, before
trading little changed at 1.3522 at 11:25 a.m. in New York, compared
with $1.3530 on March 19. The yen rose 0.6 percent to 121.79 per euro,
from 122.51 on March 19. It gained 0.5 percent to 90.06 per dollar,
from 90.54.

The euro may fail if European leaders don’t decide quickly on helping
Greece in financing the region’s biggest budget deficit, Reuters
reported that Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos said. Without a
speedy decision, the euro will make no sense and it will take decades
to recover, Pangalos said in Athens, Reuters reported.

EU leaders must not create “illusions” for markets by building
expectations for Greek aid, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an
interview with Deutschlandfunk radio that aired yesterday. Her remarks
came after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and European
Commission President Jose Barroso said the bloc should spell out its
rescue plan at the March 25- 26 summit in Brussels.

--With assistance from Keith Jenkins in London. Editors: Greg Storey,
Dave Liedtka

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Levisohn in New York at
***@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at
***@bloomberg.net

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The safest stockmarket in the world today Mar 22, 2010

The loss of momentum that most of the world's stock markets suffered
since last October has been followed by potential top formations which
could result in a return to equity markets travelling south.

For the time being, on low volume, stock markets continue to
consolidate; like the Sirens of Greek mythology they offer
considerable but potentially fatal temptations. It is evident that the
"Big Story" is not sufficiently imposing itself upon the minds of
investors, although volume is light and, as Michael Kahn said in
Barron's on 17th March: "Ignore the market's low volume at your
peril."

He also quoted from the bible of technical analysis, Edwards & Magee's
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, which says "Volume is of the
utmost importance in all technical phenomena." Volume tells us of the
conviction of the marketplace. We recently identified that the high
volume days since October were mostly associated with selling. Such a
situation is indicative of distribution; investors moving out of the
market. Hence the loss of momentum.

Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO recently wrote an article in the Financial
Times headlined "How to Handle the Sovereign Debt Explosion". He
opened with the following statement: "Every once in a while the world
is faced with a major economic development that is ill-understood at
first and dismissed as of limited relevance, and which then catches
governments, companies and households unawares." PIMCO runs the
world's biggest bond fund and bond investors are very savvy. PIMCO's
top guns quite clearly see the gorilla in the room (the "Big Story")
which other investors conveniently ignore but which, when it is ready,
will manifest itself.

Low interest rates continue: both the UK and US have yet again held
them unchanged. A signal of economic fragility, not economic recovery.

In spite of the Federal Reserve over the last year expanding the
monetary base by 35%, M2 grew by only 2.1% as commercial and personal
loans contracted an unprecedented 20%. Moreover, the key indicator M3,
which the US government chooses no longer to calculate but which is
calculated by John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, shrank
3%. Historically every time M3 has contracted, the economy has turned
lower. The approaching double dip is like a performer in the wings
waiting to go on for an encore. For effect he keeps the audience
waiting longer than seems comfortable, timing his entry to gain the
maximum impact. Likewise the double dip but, when it happens, it will
overwhelm.

There has been a distinct weakening of the housing market on both
sides of the Atlantic. These last two weeks in the US it was reported
that pending house sales had fallen in January by 7.6% and in February
housing starts fell 5.9%, although the weather might have had
something to do with that.

The US market for new houses remains plagued by the large inventory of
distressed properties for sale with prices less than construction
costs - and more foreclosures to come. If there was one key indicator
for both the US and the UK economies it would be the house market,
which was until 2007 the lynchpin for households' finances.

Most stock markets today are like houses without foundations built in
a flood area; whilst the weather remains OK, the risk is invisible but
it will, in due course, have its way, and that moment is getting
nearer.

Might Japan be different? David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff &
Associates, recently wrote, "By the way, the Japanese economy is
turning into the 'sleeper' of the year – very quietly turning in some
very impressive data of late and it has been the best performing
economy in the industrialized world since the bottom a year ago and
few realise this – there are press reports out of the Nikkei that the
government is about to lift its assessment of the economy. Investors
take note that the Japanese equity market is one of the few in Asia
that is in the green column year-to-date".

Unquestionably, Japan is different. The Nikkei today is just below
11,000 - almost 75% below its high of 20 years ago. On scanning the
history books for any kind of comparison we come up with America in
1929. In 1929 the Dow fell 90% and did not regain its 1929 level until
1954 – 25 years later. When the Nikkei Dow regains its old high of
almost 40,000 it will have climbed almost 300% on its current levels.

Above is the long term chart for the Nikkei, showing the huge support
level. Two arrows indicate a possible long-term double bottom. If ever
this market is to recover, it would at first look a bit like that.

The five year weekly price chart (above) shows that the downtrend from
2007 has been overcome and is followed by a period of consolidation. A
breakout above 11,000 would be a positive signal.

• This article was written by Full Circle Asset Management , and was
published in the threesixty Newsletter on 19 March 2010.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/stock-markets/ditch-the-stockmarkets-fading-rally-01201.aspx

Google and China's Future
Posted by Michael Schuman Monday, March 22, 2010 at 5:59 am

Google's dispute with the Chinese government has taught us a lot about
modern China. The disagreement was sparked by the company's January
decision to stop filtering Internet searches by its Chinese users and
could lead to the closure of Google's Chinese search engine, or
perhaps an even more drastic withdrawal from China. (An announcement
from Google could come this week.) The case has exposed the myth that
China is a great place to do business for foreign companies. Google's
step also moves China closer to having a “different” Internet than the
rest of the world, one dominated by Chinese companies and policed by
the Chinese government.

China's leadership doesn't appear to care much about the impact of
Google's possible departure. But should they? The Google case begs a
fundamental question about China's future:

Is there a connection between human rights and economic progress?

Americans like me were brought up to believe that free enterprise and
free societies are inseparable, that you can't have one without the
other. The demands of a successful market-based economy, we've always
believed, require the open flow of information in order for investors,
businessmen and bankers to make proper decisions. Civil liberties are
the basis for the innovation and inspiration that make capitalist
economies thrive. Curtailing personal freedoms – such as restricting
people's access to the world wide web – would eventually come back to
haunt a country's economic development, by disconnecting the economy
from the rest of the world, stifling crucial information and hampering
creativity. In other words, the traditional thinking on the
relationship between politics and economics tells us that China's
stand on human rights could cause it to miss out on crucial
opportunities necessary for its future growth.

China sees things very differently. Its leadership believes democracy
is not a requirement for a market-oriented economy; instead, you can
have economic success without political openness. That's what the 1989
massacre on Tiananmen Square was all about. Deng Xiaoping, China's
most influential leader back then, believed political reform would
undermine his efforts to develop the economy. Not much has changed in
China's thinking over the past 20 years on this issue. President Hu
Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao simply won't believe that allowing
Chinese citizens to surf freely on the Internet about sensitive topics
-- Falun Gong, Tibet, the Tiananmen Square massacre itself -- will in
any way enhance its economic prospects.

So far, it's easy to say that China's leadership is correct. After
all, China's economy has been the world's fastest-growing for the past
forever, and is likely to become the second largest economy next year
(surpassing Japan, a democracy, no less). Meanwhile, the free
democracies of the West weren't saved from financial catastrophe by
their free Internet policies; in fact, some would argue, the recent
economic crisis was caused by too much freedom, and not enough
government regulation and control.

At the same time, it's notable that there are hardly any countries
around the world that have regimes that severely restrict civil
liberties and also have thriving economies. It is true that out here
in Asia, most of the region's rapid-growth economies were governed by
dictatorships or something akin to one-party systems in their early
years of development. (India is the glaring exception.) But that's no
longer the case. Just about everywhere, they've either become vibrant
democracies (South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia) or more politically open
over time (Malaysia). The question to ask is: Are these economies
better off because of democratization and the improvement of human
rights? The only way to know for certain is to hop into a time
machine, zip back to the late 1980s, engineer continued autocratic
rule and see what happens. But it is intriguing that in the more
advanced economies (I'm thinking South Korea and Taiwan here) there
has been a tremendous improvement in recent years in product
development and design, innovation, branding and marketing, and that
these trends have coincided with the advancement of civil society and
the arts – and the use of the Internet – under liberal political
systems.

I'm not going to venture a guess as to whether China will or will not
require political reform to keep its growth story going. Yet we'll
find out soon enough. The real test of China's political and social
policies will come as it attempts to shift from an economy that makes
cheap stuff to one that innovates and invents advanced products and
technologies. Only then will we find out if the government's control
of information and personal freedoms will hamper its efforts to catch
up with the United States, Japan and South Korea. Perhaps then China
will realize the importance of having Google in its economy rather
than outside of it.

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2010/03/22/google-and-china%E2%80%99s-future/

Page last updated at 06:52 GMT, Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Japan's central bank seeks to boost lending

Deflation tends to make consumers delay purchases as prices fall
Japan's central bank has increased a stimulus measure aimed at
encouraging financial institutions to lend more.

It has doubled to 20 trillion yen (£145bn; $220bn) the amount of cheap
short-term loans it is offering banks.

The scheme, which lends money at a rate of 0.1%, was introduced in
December to try to tackle the deflation which is threatening Japan's
economic recovery.

The Bank also voted to hold interest rates at 0.1% - the level at
which they have been since December 2008.

Bank pressure

Data released last week showed that Japan's economy grew by less than
first estimated in the final quarter of 2009.

The Cabinet Office said the economy expanded by 0.9% between October
and December of last year, down from its initial estimate of 1.1%.

That downward revision increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease
monetary policy.

However, with interest rates already down to 0.1%, it does not have
much room to move.

The continuing problem of deflation is bad for an economy as it tends
to make consumers and businesses delay major purchases in the
expectation that prices will fall further in the future.

Japan has a history of struggling with deflation. The 1990s are often
referred to as Japan's "lost decade" because of its 10-year struggle
with falling prices.

The period followed a collapse in prices in the housing market and the
stock market at the end of the 1980s.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8571624.stm

Labor reforms? Japan limits on part-timers please no one.

In Japan, labor reforms approved last Friday to protect temporary
workers – now about one-third of the workforce – were met with
criticism on both sides. Firms say they need a flexible workforce,
while laborers say too many loopholes remain.

A man and cars are reflected on windows in Tokyo March 11. In Japan,
labor reforms were approved last Friday to protect temporary workers.

Toru Hanai/Reuters

.By Jonathan Adams, Correspondent / March 22, 2010

Nagoya, Japan
Japan's center-left government approved a bill limiting the hiring of
temporary workers Friday, in a bid to reverse years of labor
deregulation that it says went too far in favoring big business at the
expense of workers.

.But the proposals have drawn fire from all sides. Businesses and some
economists say firms need flexible labor to remain lean amid fierce
global competition. Meanwhile, some workers and small unions argue
that the reforms don’t go far enough.

The cool reception reflects growing disillusionment with the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which took power last year with lofty
ambitions but is now being dealt a reality check on some of its pet
policies.

It's been forced to retreat on several issues – scaling back a
populist pledge to slash highway tolls, for example, and cutting in
half its proposed child-rearing subsidy, from 26,000 to 13,000 yen
($145), at least in the first year of implementation.

Meanwhile, the DPJ cabinet's approval ratings have plunged to 34
percent, from around 70 percent when it took power, according to the
latest poll from the Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun.

The labor bill is just the latest example of the DPJ's struggle to
balance competing priorities while playing complex coalition politics.

"People are getting more and more frustrated about increasing
inequality, and the DPJ has to take care of this national
frustration," says Koji Murata, a professor at Doshisha University in
Kyoto, about the labor bill.

"But this type of regulation may decrease Japanese companies'
competitiveness. That's a catch-22 for the Japanese economy."

Promises, promises
The measure fulfills a campaign pledge made by the DPJ during last
summer's election campaign.

The bill approved by the cabinet Friday will ban "dispatch" work, or
short-term contract work arranged through a third company, in the
manufacturing sector. That rolls back liberalization measures in 2004
under the more business-friendly Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
government.

The new measures would also ban one-or two-day dispatch work
contracts.

The bill now goes to the Diet, or parliament, where it is expected to
pass within weeks.

Such measures are a response to widespread indignation over the mass
firing of dispatch laborers when the recession hit in 2008.

Dispatch workers, along with part-time, subcontract, and other
nonpermanent labor, now make up about one-third of Japan's 56 million-
strong workforce.

The labor reforms are supported by Rengo, Japan's largest trade union
confederation and a pillar of DPJ support. Most of its nearly 7
million members are permanent, full-time workers at big-name firms
like Toyota and Panasonic.

But former dispatch workers, activists, and smaller unions
representing temp workers say the changes won't take effect for three
to five years, and that firms will easily find ways to sidestep the
new measures.

‘Just in time’ workforce
As recently as the 1980s, Japan was famous for its social bargain.
Salarymen gave firms long hours and unquestioned loyalty, and in
return, companies took care of them for life.

Firms began relying on temporary labor in the late 1990s, with the
help of LDP-led deregulation, says Yasushi Iguchi, a labor expert at
Kwansei Gakuin University. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's policies
accelerated that trend.

Firms took on more part-time workers, dispatch labor, migrant labor
from depressed regions like the northern island of Hokkaido, and
foreign labor, especially Brazilians of Japanese descent and low-paid
Chinese "trainees."

.In 1999, 26 specialized sectors were allowed to hire dispatch labor,
he said, and in 2004, dispatch work was allowed in manufacturing
firms. Dispatch labor boomed, peaking at 2.2 million in 2007, only to
plunge during the global recession as firms shed workers.

Japan’s economic downturn pushes more onto streets
How Japan views Toyota recall woes

.Iguchi called such dispatch labor a "just-in-time" workforce,
complementing the famous "just-in-time" manufacturing model of Japan's
corporate titans like Toyota. Workers are hired only when needed, and
cut when orders are slack.

Such an arrangement has helped Japanese firms control costs. But it
provides little security for workers, who are paid less and receive
fewer benefits than permanent, directly-hired employees.

Skeptical workers
At a union office in Japan's manufacturing heartland, one tousle-
haired former dispatch worker, who did not want his name used, told a
typical tale.

He worked for 6-1/2 years as a dispatch worker for Mistubishi
Electronics in Aichi Prefecture. He clocked 60-hour weeks and had the
same responsibilities as permanent workers. But he earned less than
half of what they made, only 1,120 yen (about $12.40) per hour.

Mitsubishi sometimes gave two or three dispatch workers permanent
jobs, giving hope to the rest. "Me and my coworkers thought, maybe one
day we'll be taken on, too," he says.

Instead, in December 2008 he and 40 other dispatch workers in his unit
were summoned by Mitsubishi bosses and fired, with a week's notice.
The recession had hit with full force and they were no longer needed;
the unit's 20 permanent employees would stay on.

Now, he's supporting his wife and child with a job training allowance
provided by the government, which he can receive for six months.

He and two other former dispatch workers have taken legal action
against Mitsubishi. They're asking for 6 million yen ($66,000) each in
compensation. They argue that under labor regulations, Mitsubishi was
required to offer permanent employment after three years of work.
Mitsubishi Electric declined comment, saying the case was still in
litigation.

The worker says the DPJ's reforms don't go far enough. "They're no
good," he says flatly. "People will still be able to be fired easily,
and in practice nothing will change for workers like me."

The wrong solution?
Chie Matsumoto, a Tokyo-based labor rights activist, agrees. "There
are other temporary employment systems in Japan that would still leave
working conditions unstable," she says.

Iguchi, the labor economist, says firms will simply turn to other
avenues of hiring non-permanent workers. He says that improving
unemployment benefits would have more impact.

The government should also enforce equal pay for equal work, he says,
to close the wage gap between regular and "irregular" workers. He
cites research showing that a full-time male worker in Japan typically
makes more than three times what a part-time female worker makes for
the same work.

"The idea that if you ban dispatch labor you'll have no 'working poor'
– it's an illusion," he says.

Saichi Kurematsu, chairperson of the Aichi Prefectural Federation of
Trade Unions, says some of the new measures were welcome, such as
banning one-day contracts.

But he says 70 percent of the dispatch workers fired during the recent
recession were on monthly contracts, not daily ones. He called for
better unemployment benefits, and said companies should be required to
offer permanent employment to any temps who work for them for longer
than a year.

"During the Koizumi government, the liberalization of labor rules
created a very difficult situation for workers," says Kurematsu. "We
were very happy to see that administration thrown out. But after six
months [of DPJ-led government], we're less happy."

"We think the reforms are insufficient," he says. "They don't deal
with the real problems."

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/0322/Labor-reforms-Japan-limits-on-part-timers-please-no-one

Why The Yuan Will Replace The Dollar As The World’s Largest Reserve
Currency
Published on: Monday, March 22, 2010 Written by: William Patalon
III

China owns world's largest consumer population, and their economy is
projected to become as large as the United States within the next ten
years. With that in mind, many believe that China's growing status as
an economic superpower will create a global market where the yuan, US
dollar and euro will become the core of the world's currency markets.
Some analysts are even going so far as to say that the yuan will
eventually surpass the US dollar as the world's chief reserve
currency. See the following article from Money Morning for more on
this.

Back in May, just after he'd completed his latest investing tour of
China, Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald
made a bold prediction: China's currency, the yuan, is destined to
dethrone the U.S. dollar as the world's chief reserve currency.

Earlier this week, Fitz-Gerald's prediction acquired a powerful new
disciple: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) Chief Economist Jim
O'Neill.

In an essay that's part of a report published Friday for Chatham
House, a London-based foreign-affairs researcher, O'Neill wrote that
China's yuan is destined to become a global reserve currency on par
with the U.S. dollar or European euro.

China's emergence as an economic superpower will escalate the demand
for the Asian giant's currency, which is also known as the renminbi,
or "people's money." Beijing will "eventually" permit the yuan to
trade freely on foreign-exchange markets, discarding the current
system under which the government controls the currency's value, wrote
O'Neill, whose essay was part of the Chatham House report titled,
"Beyond the Dollar: Rethinking the International Monetary System."

"As China moves in this direction, other large emerging economies will
presumably gradually move in the same direction and the end result
will be something approximating to today's Western monetary system,"
O'Neill wrote. "Under such a system, the renminbi, dollar and euro
would all form the linchpin of the world's currency markets."

Back in May, in a news-analysis piece titled "China Seeks to Dethrone
the Dollar, Transforming the Yuan into the Dominant Global Currency,"
Money Morning's Fitz-Gerald outlined a series of high-level currency
swap agreements worth more than $95 billion (650 billion yuan) that
China had reached with an array of nations - a core piece of a
strategy Beijing is deploying to elevate the yuan's global status.

Fitz-Gerald was actually among the group of investing gurus who years
ago predicted that China would ascend to a position of world
leadership. As part of that thesis, Fitz-Gerald also said that China’s
currency would move up in importance and would one day become a key
reserve currency.

When China initiated the currency-swap strategy last May, he issued a
formal prediction that underscored those beliefs. "The Chinese yuan is
already well on its way to becoming that globally accepted standard
unit of exchange," Fitz-Gerald wrote in the Money Morning essay. "In
fact, I'd even go so far as to say the dollar's days of dominance are
numbered and with each new round of bailout chicanery, the clock is
winding down ever faster."

By subscribing to this viewpoint, Goldman Sachs Group's O'Neill has
given Fitz-Gerald's prediction even greater credibility. Back in 2001,
in a research paper titled "The World Needs Better Economic BRICs," it
was O'Neill who coined the term "The BRICs" to refer to the emerging
economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. That term has become so
universal - having moved beyond specialty investing circles - that
it's even used in mainstream conversations today.

Of the four BRIC countries, China is likely to have the biggest impact
in the near term. Sometime this year, in fact, the Asian giant is
likely to leapfrog Japan to become the world's No. 2 economy behind
the United States. In the next 10 years, China is likely to approach
the U.S. economy is size, O'Neill wrote.

Referring to O’Neill’s statements about the yuan’s potential to serve
as a global-reserve currency, Money Morning’s Fitz-Gerald said that “I
think a statement like this is a solid endorsement of what we’ve been
saying for a number of years, now.” The Chatham House "Beyond the
Dollar" report makes several recommendations, including the creation
of a multi-currency-reserve system, and increased use of "Special
Drawing Rights," or SDRs, as a supranational currency, Bloomberg News
reported. SDRs are a unit of account, based on a basket of currencies,
used in International Monetary Fund transactions.

Created by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods [Agreement]
fixed-exchange-rate system, the SDR was redefined in 1973 as a basket
of currencies. Today the SDR consists of the euro, Japanese yen, pound
sterling, and U.S. dollar.

The Chatham House report stated that "the dollar-based monetary system
is no longer adequate for a larger and more integrated world economy.
Prominent developing economies are increasingly demanding to be
included in any multilateral dialogue that aims to shape the new
economic order."

This is all a very logical progression, Fitz-Gerald says. “For 18 of
last 20 centuries, China has had the world’s largest GDP,” Fitz-Gerald
said. “Therefore it’s only logical that this country would eventually
have the world’s largest reserve currency. If anything, the notion
that America – with a mere 300 million people – can have a bigger
economy than China, with 1.3 billion people, is the anomaly.” This
transition will take years play out. And U.S. investors needn’t fear
that it will serve as the death knell for the U.S. economy. “Contrary
to what some people are going to say, I don’t think this spells the
end of the dollar and I don’t think that this spells the end of the
American economy,” Fitz-Gerald says. “But I do believe it will prompt
a complete realignment of what we know to be the currency markets of
today.”

This article has been republished from Money Morning. You can also
view this article at Money Morning, an investment news and analysis
site.

Like what you read? Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter:

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http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/countries-continue-to-disinvest-from-the-us-dollar-53908.aspx
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http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/chinas-currency-policy-draws-criticism-from-imf-54826.aspx
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http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/forex-investment-market-51165.aspx
China's Currency Swaps Are Undermining The Dollar
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/chinas-currency-swaps-are-undermining-the-dollar-53971.aspx
Global Central Banks Backing Away From US Dollar
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/global-central-banks-backing-away-from-us-dollar-53859.aspx
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http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/us-dollar-is-the-cheapest-funding-vehicle-for-carry-trades-53724.aspx
US Dollar Expected To Continue To Fall Against Euro
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/us-dollar-expected-to-continue-to-fall-against-euro-53927.aspx
Profit Opportunities In The Weak Dollar
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/profit-opportunities-in-the-weak-dollar-53734.aspx

http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/why-the-yuan-will-replace-the-dollar-as-the-worlds-54895.aspx

...and I am Sid Harth
bademiyansubhanallah
2010-03-22 22:19:02 UTC
Permalink
Sunday, March 21, 2010
China and U.S.: There Really Is NO Trade Imbalance

Click to enlarge.

Don Boudreaux picks a nit about "trade imbalances" with Jeremy
Warner, who writes an otherwise excellent article in the London
Telegraph about Paul Krugman's misguided suggestion of a 25% surcharge
tax on China's imports American consumers and U.S. companies who buy
goods from China for their low prices and great value:

"You write as if the alleged trade imbalances between the U.S. and
China are real. They are not. The Chinese sell Americans goods; we pay
with dollars; the Chinese then use many of these dollars to buy IOUs
issued by Uncle Sam. Although the result is a measured U.S. current-
account deficit with China, there’s no more any economically
meaningful “imbalance” in such a result than there would be if, say,
Texans lent a lot more of their dollars to Uncle Sam.

Talk of imbalances in trade diverts attention from the real problem:
Uncle Sam’s gargantuan debt. That fast-accumulating debt is a huge
problem. It is caused, though, not by trade with China but, rather, by
Washington’s lack of fiscal discipline. Unless you believe that
protectionism (and only protectionism) would induce Congress to be
more fiscally disciplined, you should avoid all talk of imbalances in
trade and instead talk of imbalances in political institutions that
encourage politicians to give disproportionate weight to the demands
of current voters and to ignore the resulting ill-consequences that
will curse future generations."

MP: The graph above illustrates Don's point that there is no "trade
imbalance" once all international transactions are accounted for:

1. In 2009, the U.S. imported more from China ($354 billion) than it
exported ($93 billion), resulting in a "trade deficit" of -$263
billion on our "current account" (data here).

But that is only part of the international trade story, since there
are also financial transactions that have to be accounted for, and
that deficit on the current account has to be offset somehow, since
all international trade has to balance (it's based on double-entry
bookkeeping).

2. The offsetting balance came from the $263 billion capital account
surplus in 2009, as a result of $263 billion of net capital inflow to
the U.S. from China to buy our Treasury bonds and other financial
assets.

3. The $263 billion capital account surplus exactly offsets the
current account deficit.

Bottom Line: As Don correctly points out, there really is NO trade
imbalance, when we account for: a) exports and imports of goods and
services, AND b) capital inflows/outflows. Stated differently, the
balance of payments is always ZERO. We buy more of China's goods than
they buy of ours, but then China buys more of our financial assets
(bonds and stocks) than we buy of theirs. So in the end, international
trade with China, is balanced, not imbalanced.

Posted @ 10:09 AM Post Link 23 Comments links to this post

23 Comments:

At 3/21/2010 11:10 AM, PeakTrader said...
Government has been successful shifting blame. Consequently, the
private sector is a failure, e.g. the Bush economy, health care, Wall
Street, etc.

The imbalance is government draining dollars from the private sector,
causing a recession, and then refusing to redirect enough dollars
where needed to employ idle resources. So, the U.S. economy has
underperformed over the past three years.

At 3/21/2010 11:20 AM, PeakTrader said...
It's ironic a communist government helped turned the U.S. into a
Marxist-socialist country.

At 3/21/2010 12:55 PM, Anonymous said...
Balance of payments is NOT trade balance.

If a 5-year old boy understands this, I wonder why makes you and your
friend Don not too.

At 3/21/2010 1:51 PM, Benny The Man said...
Well, if Uncle Sam wiped out that Red State Socialist Empire,
demilitarized like the Soviet Union did, and cut other federal
outlays, and then actually balanced the federal budget, then China
would have to buy something else from us other than federal IOUs--
probably our assets, such as our factories, land, and operating
companies.
I guess we would all be speaking Chinese already.

That damn Chinese written language looks effing impossible to learn.
Why can't the Spanish conquer us, or the French?

At 3/21/2010 2:07 PM, Anonymous said...
That damn Chinese written language looks effing impossible to learn.

One language at a time. First, you need to learn English.

At 3/21/2010 3:24 PM, sethstorm said...
I'd like to know how that balance gets restored with regards to
offshored jobs that don't really come back.

That country doesn't seem to be one that will be using robotics
anytime soon. They rely on a constant employer-friendly glut and
currency pegging to keep things the same.

At 3/21/2010 4:10 PM, Lyle said...
SethStorm, there have been stories suggesting that the chinese labor
pool is getting low. Note also that in 5 years the working age
percentage of the population in China starts decreasing. There is now
talk of more doing like where I buy my clothes making them in Pakistan
and other lower cost countries. China has to move up the food chain in
production, to survive just like Japan did. However compared to Japan
they did not get rich enough fast enough to avoid the aging population
problem. Ultimatly we may see clothes made in sub sahahan africa as
the last low cost labor location left.

At 3/21/2010 4:33 PM, PeakTrader said...
Seth, we could stop offshoring and produce the goods ourselves, e.g.
at twice the costs. Given there would be fewer goods to buy, we can
close half the shopping malls in the U.S.

At 3/21/2010 4:44 PM, sethstorm said...

Note also that in 5 years the working age percentage of the population
in China starts decreasing.

It's still a large enough glut to be felt in the US. No matter what
hell-hole you use, that always is the case.

China has to move up the food chain in production, to survive just
like Japan did.

The problem is that they show no sign in moving up. If they can
produce junk that's pegged to be cheaper than most other places, they
can suffer the few products that don't respond.

I'm not sure this would give rise to better conditions out the sake of
running out of people to kill or blacklist into subsistence.

Even Japan is showing signs of moving downward in quality. Yes,
downward.

There is now talk of more doing like where I buy my clothes making
them in Pakistan and other lower cost countries

Already a solid practice for decades. My issue is with limiting the
damage such that very few industries do get offshored.

At 3/21/2010 4:55 PM, sethstorm said...

Seth, we could stop offshoring and produce the goods ourselves, e.g.
at twice the costs. Given there would be fewer goods to buy, we can
close half the shopping malls in the U.S.

The question is would it be suffering more in variety or increasing
the quality of what does exist.

I draw the line when it's being sent to places just to get around US-
derived market forces(where quality usually is forgotten). Usually
this means some undeveloped country that perpetually undercuts US/
Western Europe.

At 3/21/2010 4:58 PM, gettingrational said...
Which foreign coutry holds the most U.S. Treasuries?

Is it China with its vast U.S. reserves because or its 58% share of
the U.S. trade deficit?

The biggest creditor is Japan.

BTW, conflating trade account and current account to counter inbalance
arguments is wrong -- the free exchange of goods and services is being
hijacked by mercantilism.

At 3/21/2010 4:59 PM, sethstorm said...
Further, I'd have no problem with killing the current iteration of it.
Perhaps it would start the discussion as to making a more US-citizen-
friendly form that isn't simply a "job & industry funnel to Third
World".

It's all fun and games until your industry gets attacked (doubly so if
you got out of manufacturing and into another one).

At 3/21/2010 5:07 PM, sethstorm said...

The biggest creditor is Japan.

The only signal that should be given by that is to turn the screws
harder on China.

At 3/21/2010 5:23 PM, PeakTrader said...
Seth, why stop or slow improvements in living standards and the
inevitable shifts into new industries? Moreover, there are quality
standards.

Of course, there could be better policies to deal with displaced
workers e.g. subsidizing college degrees in demand rather than all
college degrees.


At 3/21/2010 7:21 PM, OA said...
gettingrational said...
Which foreign coutry holds the most U.S. Treasuries?
...
The biggest creditor is Japan.

gettingrational, I just popped into the US Treasury website to check
if things changed. And the table has been revised significantly.

It seems like the prior Treasury table was incorrect as the figures
for China are now over $100 billion higher, all the way back to June
2009. It is disturbing that for nearly a year, the Treasury data has
been wrong, and that someone only seemed to notice once that flip
between Japan and China was widely reported.

There actually are two columns reported for June 2009. New 5/series
and Old 5/series. Then the new number carries on from that point.

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

At 3/21/2010 8:00 PM, sethstorm said...

Of course, there could be better policies to deal with displaced
workers, e.g. subsidizing college degrees in demand rather than all
college degrees.

Indeed. It is time enough to not presume that the displaced will
automatically transition (or can be with how things are now).

The current policy seems to be optimized for political uses that focus
on harming US citizens. It is too far optimized at destroying than
rebuilding and creating. Creation is just an unintended & selective
side effect.

Halting it would put the issues of fraud and dishonesty front and
center. It would ask if it's really worth using it as a weapon against
having to respond to the US market.

Another part of it would revisit the idea of what really needs a
degree, and what requires it out of liability/legal issues. A degree
is hardly the thing to use to save (or damn) someone (or their
profession).

At 3/21/2010 8:05 PM, gettingrational said...
OA, thank you for the correction to the treasuries report. My source
was the Bangkok Post. Our friends in Asia must be thinking the U.S.
has so much debt they can't keep up with it all -- so do I.

At 3/21/2010 9:13 PM, Frank said...
Of course ther is no trade imbalance with China, the Chinese buy all
the U.S made, televisions, computers, refrigerators, clothes, shoes,
cars, trucks, toys and countless other cheap plastic gadgets.

At 3/21/2010 9:37 PM, juandos said...
sethstorm apparently can't use google: "I'd like to know how that
balance gets restored with regards to offshored jobs that don't really
come back"...

Did YOU sethtsorm support politicos that pushed Sarbanes - Oxley?

Did YOU sethtsorm support politicos that pushed stronger and stronger
CAFE standards?

Did YOU sethtsorm support politicos that pushed harsher punishments
for industries that alledgedly flouted some asinine EPA standard?

Did YOU sethtsorm support politicos that pushed higher corporate tax
rates?

Did YOU sethtsorm support politicos that pushed ObamaCare?

Did YOU sethtsorm support politicos that foisted off the myth that
diversity training was useful?

A 'YES' to anyone of these questions means the odds of more jobs going
offshore is increasing...

At 3/21/2010 10:29 PM, sethstorm said...

A 'YES' to anyone of these questions means the odds of more jobs going
offshore is increasing...

Thank you for proving my point of it being used as a political weapon.
You could have made the case for the opposition and it still wouldn't
have mattered.

At 3/22/2010 4:18 AM, Ron H. said...
Anon @ 12:55

Trade balance is a PART of balance of payments. We buy cheap stuff
from China with dollars, China buys Treasury Bills from US with those
dollars. Balance=0

At 3/22/2010 10:12 AM, juandos said...
"Thank you for proving my point of it being used as a political
weapon"...

No sethstorm, I proved your inability to get a grip on reality...

All those things I mention impinge on the bottom line and the
resulting costs can't be continously foisted off onto the customer
since others will sell a product or service cheaper due to the fact
that they aren't burdened with these sorts of government overheads...

At 3/22/2010 11:51 AM, Mike Razim said...
Many are also claiming that the US manipulates its own currency. So is
the US being a hypocrite: http://bit.ly/aoI5nB Or do we have room to
talk?

About Me

Name:
Mark J. Perry
Location:
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Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the
School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of
Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and
Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition,
he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of
Management at the University of Minnesota. Perry is currently on
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http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2010/03/china-and-us-there-are-no-trade.html

Sunday, March 21st, 2010 at 6:16 am
First Moody’s, Now IMF Warns America on Economy
By Andrew Zarowny

First, it was Moody’s, warning the U.S. and other Western nations this
past week about having their bond ratings lowered. Their language was
harsh. “…require fiscal adjustments of a magnitude that, in some
cases, will test social cohesion.” Wow! They have also issued a
warning this week about a potential junk bond bubble. “An avalanche is
brewing in 2012 and beyond if companies don’t get out in front of
this.” By 2012, the U.S. government will need to borrow another $2
Trillion dollars AND refinance existing debt. Now, the International
Monetary Fund is warning about national debts for America and most of
the Western, industrialized nations, too.

You have to wonder just how many canaries must die first before you
exit the coal mine? Despite the warnings, America is now perched to
leap into a whole, new entitlement program, which will increase the
debt and restrict economic growth. Our politicians in Washington are
digging us into a ‘progressively’ deeper hole.

Speaking in China this weekend, IMF official, John Lipsky, told the
audience at the China Development forum that the United States, “a
higher public savings rate will be required to ensure long-term fiscal
sustainability.” How high and how long? He calculates an 8 point swing
over the next ten years will return us to the pre-crisis Debt/GDP
ratio of 60% by 2030. How do you spell AUSTERITY?

Yet, here we are today, facing the first in a wave of more of Obama’s
agenda, which will push government sending higher and further hamper
any growth in our GDP. Moody’s and the IMF are both warning us that we
cannot keep up this pace of government spending. We cannot even keep
up the pace of private equity borrowing! Yet, that is exactly what the
dummies in Washington and Wall Street are proposing to do. Obama
cannot even pick a winner for his brackets of the NCAA basketball
tournament, something he claims he’s an expert at! For all his
education (Harvard, Columbia, and THE prep school in Hawaii), Obama
has yet to demonstrate any rational thinking. America is being led
down a blind alley by an idiot! As I’ve said before, “…woe is us that
Edward George Ruddy died!”

http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=5890

How Much Does Poverty Cost?
by Kathryn Baer March 21, 2010 07:30 AM (PT)

.Commenter Jan Lightfootlane responds to my thoughts on permanent
supportive housing with a terrific question: Do we have research on
how much society would save if it ended poverty?

The closest I know are two major studies that look at how much child
poverty costs the U.S. economy. These are lifelong costs -- in other
words, what our society loses because so many poor children grow up in
poor households.

Eliminating child poverty wouldn't save these costs in the way that
permanent supportive housing has been found to save taxpayer dollars
on health care, imprisonment and so forth. But I think it's fair to
assume that society would gain the same amount if it made the right
investments to lift every child out of poverty. Hard to imagine how
this could be done without lifting parents out of poverty too.

Back in 1997, the Children's Defense Fund published a book entitled
Poverty Matters: The Cost of Child Poverty in America. It's available
only for purchase, alas. But we know from a more recent CDF paper that
the author put the cost at $130 billion in future economic input,
based on an estimated 12 million or so children.

A team of economists led by Harry Holzer took a deep dive into the
same issue in a report from the Center for American Progress issued in
early 2007, The Economic Costs of Poverty in the U.S.: The Subsequent
Effects of Children Growing Up Poor.

The team reviewed studies that estimated the average statistical
relationships between children growing up poor and their earnings,
tendency to commit serious crimes and quality of health in later life.
They also reviewed estimates of the per person costs of crime and poor
health. Then they aggregated the average costs per poor child across
the total number of children growing up poor. (Elegant methodology
but, like the rest of the report, not for the casual reader.)

At the end of the day, they concluded that child poverty costs the
U.S. about $500 billion a year, the equivalent of nearly 4 percent of
the GDP (the total market value of all the goods and services our
country produces). To see your state's share of the costs, check the
table in this report from the University of Washington's Human
Services Policy Center.

Measured as percents of GDP, the costs divided fairly equally between
reduced productivity and economic output (what the grown-up children
would have been likely to earn if their parents hadn't been poor),
higher crime costs and a combination of higher health care
expenditures and reduced value of health (lost quality and years of
life).

As the authors say, these costs understate the full amount our economy
loses due to poverty. They don't include the costs of poor adults who
weren't poor as children. Nor do they include other costs poverty
might impose -- environmental costs, for example, and "much of the
suffering of the poor themselves." Hard to put a dollar value on that.

When the authors crunched their numbers, about 17.4 percent of
children lived below the poverty line. By 2008 (the latest year for
which we have figures), the child poverty rate had increased to 19
percent.

Still, a potential gain of $500 billion a year isn't chump change. So
there's a good economic argument, as well as compelling social and
moral arguments, for investing significantly more than we do in anti-
poverty strategies that work. We don't know as much as we need to
about these. But we know more than enough to get started.

The Center for American Progress followed up on the Holzer team's
study by developing 12 recommendations for cutting poverty in half
within the next 10 years. It asked the Urban Institute to estimate the
impacts and costs of four of these:

•Increase the minimum wage to 50 percent of the average non-
supervisory wage (about what it was during much of the 1950's and
60's).

•Increase the Earned Income Tax Credit, extend it to 18 to 24-year-
olds who aren't full-time students and allow the exclusion of half the
earnings of the lower-income spouse.

•Make the Child Tax Credit fully refundable, rather than a capped 15
cents per dollar per child as it is now.

•Provide a child care subsidy to all families with incomes below 200
percent of the federal poverty line and, at the same time, make the
Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit larger and refundable.

The Urban Institute found that these four, hardly radical measures
would reduce poverty by nearly 26 percent in all and 46 percent for
children, at a net cost of $37.2 billion. CAP says the cost of
implementing all its recommendations would be about $90 billion.

Considering what we're losing due to child poverty today, that seems
like a good return on investment to me.

Thanks for asking, Jan. Hope this helps.

Photo credit: psd

Kathryn Baer

Kathryn is an independent consultant in policy research, analysis and
communications. In addition to for-fee assignments, she provides pro
bono communications services for the advocacy department of a local
nonprofit that serves homeless and other poor people and for
coalitions that work on similar issues. She also maintains her own
blog, Poverty and Policy.
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The Projects Get a Museum Comments (5)
Mar 21, 2010 @ 03:24PM PT
jan Lightfootlane
I am so delighted that someone answered me. I asked our local Maine
group, which is suppose to be the voice of the poor. But we have to
throw out an idea and wait until the leaders of the pack, make's it
their idea. They gave me all the financial, and other reasons, they
could not learn this information.

They have done wonderful things like introduced the "Parents for
Scholars" programs, and made it become real. That means TANF Mothers
and the few fathers can go back to school, to learn more and perhaps
have that reflected in a few more dollars in wages.

I am one of those who wants to remove near 100% of poverty. That means
changing attitudes. To do that we must show how erasing poverty will
improve the lives of the rich.

I will look up these sites and learn from them. This might not be
exactly What I am looking for But it IS a great place to start. Your,
writing this, might get others thinking on if they end human lack,
there could be more possibilities' for a better life. Not just a
better for the poor, but the affluent will have a better life. I can
not Thank you enough! You are one of my top 5 authors here at
Change.org.

I will express my thoughts on ending poverty which you wrote about,
when I stop dancing on the ceiling. Being heard, is an elixir of life.
Thanks again

Mar 22, 2010 @ 06:40AM PT
Kathryn Baer
Glad to be of help, Jan. Here are a couple of further thoughts.

The Parents for Scholars program sounds indeed like a wonderful thing.
Would it be possible for the program to track results-specifically,
the number of participants who find jobs (or better jobs) and the
amount they earn? The number who earn enough to "graduate" from TANF?
These figures would speak directly to costs. And they would be very
interesting to other organizations.

The Half in Ten Coalition was organized specifically to advocate for
strategies that will cut poverty in half in 10 years. It grew out of
the Center for American Progress work I wrote about. The coalition
hasn't thus far produced the kinds of figures you're looking for, but
their site is worth monitoring. It's at http://halfinten.org.

CLASP has just produced recommendations for the reauthorization of
TANF. It too calls for a comprehensive poverty-reduction strategy,
with TANF as one component. It wants the program to shift toward
outcome-based measures so that states would be responsible for how
well (or poorly) their programs alleviate poverty. If Congress adopts
this recommendation, we can look forward to much better figures on
impacts. CLASP specifically wants data on child well-being. Such data
can readily converted to cost/savings estimates. Would it be suitable
and feasible for your local Maine group get behind this
recommendation?

Mar 22, 2010 @ 08:43AM PT
jan Lightfootlane
I will ask them if they have any data the group does not meet until
the second thursday of April. My guess is the Maine Department of
Health & Human Services might have that information.

Must admit, I have not the time right off to read the data, but will
get to it. These Groups are not addressing the attitude changes which
is required to end poverty. The first Report does say Itys being
treated as a moral issue. But Poverty, is not being fully adressed on
morality alone.

My thinking is in the long run everyone saves by ending human lack. We
do not need Governmental gimmacks which serves 1/4 of the people with
1/3 of the need. We need what the son of god said when asked How much
do we give to the poor? Without missing a beat he said we give the
full need.

To me that means we pay the working poor the full need to cover the
basic's. To me that is the solution, directly from the bible. Its a
solution which is seldomly quoted, but it should be. Then it should
be placed into practice. Kathryn, If this wisdom was quoted, then
someone would want America forego Dawerism Economics of survivial of
the fittest, then to apply the Love economics.

Again thank you for answering with information I will read by this
week end.

Mar 22, 2010 @ 09:25AM PT
Desiree Michaels

Another example is the elephant left under the rug during the
discussiong surrounding health reform - costs to adults and their
families. If childless adults weren't forced into both disability AND
poverty to get medical assistance, imagine what they might be able to
contribute to their (OK, it's OUR since I am one) own incomes and to
society via things like taxes and what society would save via things
like Medicaid, foodstamps, etc. OTOH, think about what we ARE
unnecessarily spending because we DO force childless adults into both
disability AND poverty to get medical assistance - Medicaid, Medicare,
disabilty (in many forms), housing programs, costs to their families
(and sometimes friends too), costs to the tax base (and our numbers
include people who run the gamut from minimally trained and educated
to very well trained and educated - like I'm college educated and have
IT certs as are several friends on disability), etc. We're being
penny-wise and pound foolish.

Mar 22, 2010 @ 11:52AM PT
jan Lightfootlane
Yes Desiree They are a penny wise an a Euro Foolish. But we must
educate.

Mar 22, 2010 @ 12:20PM PT
Desiree Michaels
That we must, but it would help if those needing the education would
listen. It currently feels like having a conversation with a brick
wall.

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Fascism -- There is a point of no return
Meta-metaDepartment of All The Damn Gall
Sun, 03/21/2010 - 11:32am — jeffroby

It’s ironic that teabaggers are now raising the cry of American
Exceptionalism. The term has a long history, generally along the lines
of U.S. as a beacon of Democracy, young, free, blessed by God. The
Communist Party USA in the 1930’s re-defined the term to claim they
could achieve socialism peacefully, paving the way for their
accommodation with Roosevelt. The teabaggers are today re-defining it
again as America having the right to rule the world, unrestrained by
treaty, law or human decency. America uber alles, you might say.

They have the audacity to call Obama a fascist, even as a U.S. rep at
a teabagger rally proclaims in Huffington Post:

"Fill this city up, fill this city, jam this place full so that they
can't get in, they can't get out and they will have to capitulate to
the will of the American people," he said.

"So this is just like Prague under communist rule?" the Huffington
Post asked.

"Oh yeah, it is very, very close," King replied. "It is the
nationalization of our liberty and the federal government taking our
liberty over. So there are a lot of similarities there."

Earlier, King implored the crowd to bring the nation's capital to a
sort of paralysis. Warning, erroneously, that the health care bill
would fund abortion and fund care for 6.1 million illegal immigrants,
he demanded that concerned citizens "continue to rise up."

"I look back 20 years ago in the square in Prague... when tens of
thousands showed up there and they shook their keys peacefully and
they took over their country and they achieved their freedom back
again," he said. "If you can keep coming to this city, fill up the
congressional offices across the country but jam this city. If you can
get on your cell phones, get on your Blackberries and your email, and
ask people to keep coming to this town. Storm this city, fill up
Washington D.C., jam this capital so they can't move. And if tens of
thousands, hundreds of thousands of you show up, we will win. We will
defeat this bill and you will have your liberty back."

Harks back to the Nazi mobs that prowled the streets of Berlin and
Munich well before Hitler took power. They would bring on the very
thing they profess to decry. Yet the teabagger ranks can’t be
completely reduced to a cynical ploy.

The totalitarian provisions of the Patriot Act are restored at Obama’s
behest, and many teabaggers don’t like the Patriot Act. They’re smart
enough to know that throwing in the word “patriot” doesn’t give carte
blanche. The mandate in Obama’s healthcare bill is indeed an outrage
against individual liberty. Government does intrude more every day,
and who among us would say that this is a benign government. Some of
the complaints are beneficial or relatively trivial, such as anti-
smoking laws or forbidding holding a cell phone while driving. Others,
such as schools spying on their students through their laptops are
more ominous. The total computerization of society gives the
government awesome control to track us, take our bank accounts,
completely paralyze us -- if they so choose.

The government is out of control. Democracy is being rendered
meaningless. A handful of fat cats on Wall Street are bringing on
economic catastrophe. Clear explanations are defied. Meanings are
stood on their head. Things fall apart. Yes, the movement to fascism
must be stopped. Note that I say movement, not a static state of
affairs.

Terminal Crisis

Karl Marx was not a merry old soul. He developed a brilliant model of
capitalist society, much of which is considered liberal truism today.

To put it very crudely, there are capitalists and workers. For
capitalists to profit they have to underpay their workers (extraction
of surplus value in commie lingo). But in underpaying their workers,
they end up with a realization crisis, i.e., they realize there is not
enough money out there to buy their products. This produces a series
of ever-deepening economic crises.

At the same time, capitalism organizes and develops a concentrated
industrial working class (proletariat, as they used to say) which, in
response to these ever-deepening crises, will finally cast off their
chains in socialist revolution. Thus, revolution is seen as
inevitable. There are two major problems here. But this is, after all,
only a model.

Luxemburg

To the extent that Rosa Luxemburg is remembered, it is that she was a
Polish Jew who emigrated to Germany and married communist leader Karl
Liebknicht. They made a courageous but unsuccessful stand against
Germany going to war in 1914. Following the Bolshevik revolution, she
was sharply critical of Lenin’s authoritarianism. The end of World War
I brought on a revolution of sorts led by the Social Democrats. In
January 1919, German workers in Berlin rose up in what is known as the
Spartacist Uprising. It failed. At the behest of the Social Democratic
regime, police smashed in Rosa Luxemburg’s skull with their rifle
butts and threw her body into a canal where it remained frozen until
Spring.

Less known is that Rosa Luxemburg was also a brilliant economist. She
made two revisions to Marxist theory that are relevant here.

(1) Marx’s model was only a model. In reality, capitalism exists
alongside non-capitalist or pre-capitalist modes of production. It can
loot them either through theft by armed force or by imposing unequal
trade relations arising from capitalism’s greater efficiency. Thus
crisis is forestalled or softened. And a segment of the working class
can be bought off.

(2) Capitalist subjectivity is a factor. If they believe they can
continue to invest at a profit, they will continue to invest, even if
the foundation of that belief is false (CDO’s, derivatives, etc.).

In contrast to Marx’s socialist inevitability, Luxemburg put forth the
slogan of “socialism or barbarism.” If revolution failed, the means of
production could be so destroyed that there would be no foundation on
which socialism could be built. (Consider how the socialist
revolutions in Angola and Mozambique turned out.)

But this is just theory.

Fast forward to the 1930’s

Let’s first not focus on why Germany turned fascist but rather why the
U.S. didn’t.

Remember that democracy is the preferred capitalist mode. Yes, they
need to hold down or prevent unionism. Yes, they need to sometimes
stifle dissent to pursue their imperial wars of choice. Other feudal
holdovers like restrictions on abortion and religious fervor can be
useful. But capital thrives best under free trade, a flexible
political process, a mobile workforce freed of any ties that would
restrict it from being deployed -- or laid off -- at capital’s
convenience. An educated, healthy, moralized workforce is the most
productive workforce.

Fascism, on the other hand, is a relatively inefficient, self-
devouring system. Capitalism as a whole, the most powerful, the ones
with the most interest in the total system, at least, will only turn
to it in times of crisis. Of course, the 1930’s were a time of crisis.
Elements of the U.S., oh, let’s get all bolshie and call them the
ruling class, were definitely pro-Hitler. Southern populism had
varying strains, some distinctly progressive, others rabidly racist
and right-wing. The Ku Klux Klan had re-emerged, with a membership of
over 5 million in the 1920’s, with interests going far beyond its
original racial politics (but of course retaining them).

In opposition was a very powerful industrial union movement, with the
Communist Party anchoring it on the left, just as the Christian
Fundies anchored George Bush, and as the teabaggers do for the
Republicans today. And there was the matter of ruling class
subjectivity, per Luxemburg. The “enlightened” elements surrounding
Roosevelt saw prospects in a world in turmoil. The French and British
colonial empires were teetering.. The U.S. was militarily modest but
an economic powerhouse. It was Germany’s largest creditor. Empires in
Asia and Africa would be up for grabs. The U.S. came to terms with the
unions and the CP, and vice versa -- the whole New Deal thing. The
industrial unions were recognized and the country began to arm.

It made moves to cut off Japan’s oil supplies, and the U.S. was
actually spoiling for war in the Pacific.

It DID happen there

Germany was another matter. As is generally known, Germany was in
crisis, crushed by reparations to England and France, rampant
unemployment and inflation, massively indebted to the U.S., ostensibly
disarmed but still lacking the colonial empire that it had gone to war
to acquire in 1914. So the German rulers had turned to Hitler in 1933,
renounced reparations, crushed the unions, set a course to exterminate
the Jews, and launched wars of conquest to Germany’s east.

There are a couple of distortions in this popular impression:

(1) Germany had begun to re-arm well before 1933, and had already been
defaulting on its reparations under the tutelage of the U.S. Thus, in
many ways, Hitler was a continuation of standing German developments,
not a complete break.

(2) The whole picture has an aura of inevitability which is
dangerously misleading.

In Wages of Destruction, a fascinating study of the Nazi economy, Adam
Tooze writes:

In the 1920s, faced with an earlier American effort to reconstitute
the international order, Stresemann’s strategy had been to position
Germany as a key ally of the United States. By contrast, from 1932 the
governments of Franz von Papen, General Kurt von Schleicher and
finally Adolf Hitler adopted a contrary position. Rather than seeking
prosperity and security in multilateral arrangements guaranteed by the
power of the United States, they sought to secure unilateral German
advantage ...

If we are to avoid a depoliticized economic history of the Nazi
regime, we must always bear in mind that even in 1933 there were
alternatives to the economic strategy pursued by Hitler’s government.
And not only that these alternatives might well have brought greater
material benefits to the majority of the German population

In other words, Germany had a choice between becoming a junior partner
of the U.S. or embarking on a course of war. Fascism was a choice. We
will come back to this later.

Fast forward to today

This is a crisis we are in. No one pretends that manufacturing jobs
are coming back. Outsourcing is permanent. When you call the support
line, the Indian-accented voice on the other end is more confident,
more competent. No longer a joke. Jobs aren’t coming back. Jobs people
do have are lower-end. You need a B.A. to even apply for work as a
receptionist. Poverty is spreading. The safety net is collapsing. Tent
cities are becoming a normal part of the landscape, as are police
raids to tear them down. The only way there will be any recovery at
all is if recovery itself is redefined to mean a rising stock market
amid mass hunger, homelessness and despair. The Fed keeps pumping out
devalued cash, the international finance folks hold each other’s hands
over the abyss. This is all very bad, but this is not fascism.

Teabaggers march confident through the halls of Congress. Elected
officials call for the overthrow of their own government. Obama
reaffirms preventive detention and the worst tyrannies of the Bush
regime. Be named an enemy combatant and disappear forever. This is
also very bad, but this is not fascism.

We wage open war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and openly wage covert war
in Pakistan. We threaten war with Iran, and some threaten war with
Islam itself. This too is bad, but it is not fascism.

Abortion, while sort of legal, is inaccessible to millions of American
women. Healthcare is a disaster that the Democratic healthcare bill
will not salvage. Rape and domestic violence are on the rise. The
skill level of the American workforce is deteriorating. The social
fabric is unraveling. We have long surpassed the world of 1984 and
Network, as Escape from New York looms on the still-distant horizon.
This is bad, but it is not fascism.

Fascism is not a state of affairs. It doesn’t reduce to a checklist
extrapolated from the characteristics of Nazi Germany. It is a
process, it is a movement.

Obama the tactic of choice

Certainly a fascist movement is afoot. Teabaggers prowling Congress,
bussed from confrontation to confrontation with corporate dollars and
Fox News their wholly-owned subsidiary (or vice versa). Minutemen
“defend” our southern borders, national convention cities turned into
police states (they’re practicing up). Yet our rulers have not decided
to pull the fascist trigger. Obama -- funded by Wall Street and big
Pharma -- is their agent of choice. A Republican carrying out current
policies would engender resistance, if only out of Democratic Party
craven self-interest. As mentioned before, capitalism operates best
under democracy.

Repression and brute force are expensive and clumsy. Better to have
the consent of the governed. Thus domestically, Obama’s job is to co-
opt progressives into supporting his policies, or at least disarm
them. So far so good. Internationally, a go-it-alone approach to the
economic collapse would bring on speedy catastrophe. Maintaining the
current illusion of a functioning international economic system
requires a degree of cooperation and simple tact that a Republican
regime would be incapable of, and which the teabaggers -- with their
revival of American Exceptionalism -- explicitly reject.

Unfortunately, the current equilibrium cannot be maintained
indefinitely.

Back to Luxemburg

Recall that Rosa Luxemburg put forward two ways that capitalism could
postpone terminal collapse. First was by devouring pre-capitalist
modes of production. That process has by-and-large run its course.
Large swaths of the earth are now reduced to utter destitution, e.g.,
Africa. The rest have now become industrial powers of varying
strength, with emerging powerhouses India and China leaping forward as
they absorb the remnants of their peasant economies. China, India,
Russia and Brazil now constitute a viable power bloc resistant to U.S.
capital penetration. While weaker than the U.S., especially
militarily, they grow with a solid manufacturing base, while U.S.
industry rots behind its fortress walls.

It now lives based on the second factor -- capitalist subjectivity.
The ruling class either believes or hopes it can maintain itself by
continuing to pile paper wealth upon paper wealth through gimmicks
like derivatives, CDO’s, swaps, and outright bailouts, while imposing
austerity on everyone else. It may be a bad plan, but it’s a plan
nonetheless. It’s not a plan that can work indefinitely.

For unfortunately, the world is running out of oil

There is no way to predict when -- or even whether -- the ruling class
will decide that democracy no longer serves its interests. We can only
look at the forces in play and consider possibilities.

We like to think that our rulers are crazy, and in fact they are. But
there is usually some underlying logic behind their policies. Take our
wars in the Middle East. We are setting the Muslim world (to say
nothing about the rest of it) against us. We are bankrupting
ourselves. The teabaggers are quite certifiable, though not as much as
the politicians nurturing them.

But one underlying factor is what is known as Peak Oil. The supply is
running out. Tomorrow, no, next year might be the peak, or 5 years if
we keep digging hard enough, or longer, who knows? But it is running
out. And the China/Russia/India/Brazil bloc is making deals to get an
increasing cut of what’s left. If the U.S. tactic of choice is
confrontation, then confrontation it will be. In that case, however
stupid our current wars may seem, it might be downright handy to have
our armed forces hanging around the neighborhood ready to grab the oil
fields. Of course, that would mean short-term damage to world oil
supplies. In fact, the trigger for such a move (whatever anti-Muslim
pretext is cooked up) would probably emerge from some kind of crisis,
some major shocks to the economy.

This would have additional aftershocks to the U.S. economy, and not
good ones. Of course, the American people might want to resolve it
through heavy taxation on rich corporations. Or they might be crushed
politically as they have been under ObamaCare. Yes, the teabaggers are
as crazy as waltzing mice, but with the American economy -- no picture
of health -- taking more economic hits, it might be convenient for the
ruling class to have fascist mobs ready to crush any resistance in the
name of God and the American way.

Following this track along generally pessimistic lines, this is
actually the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

Consider what might be unleashed should there be a major terrorist
attack in the U.S., say a major bridge blown up, a chemical plant
exploded, assassinations (gee, that couldn’t happen here). Then it all
goes out the window. We saw how alleged progressives caved in to Bush
after 911. That would be Davy Crockett at the Alamo compared to what
would be unleashed now (sorry to lose you, Fess Parker).

Not saying this will happen. But you can’t say it’s not a distinct
possibility.

Point of no return

Either of the two scenarios could lead to a point of no return.
Assuming that the China/Russia/India/Brazil bloc could fend off
nuclear America gone berserk (not a sure thing), what would it mean if
the teabaggers were in control and Michelle Bachmann was president?
Palin as Minister of Defense? The U.S. has a hopelessly tattered
industrial base even now. Oh, I leave it to your imaginations.

Last week, in a comment, I was asked in good faith, “[W]hat is your
game plan? How would something like the [Full Court Press] morph into
that which could frustrate the social forces leading to fascism?”

How the hell should I know? The Full Court Press is envisioned as one
very small part of a movement that I hope emerges. If you ask a
general what her plan is for defeating the army on the opposing ridge,
and she didn’t know what army she had -- how many tanks, 100 troops, a
division, trained or untrained -- the question would be unanswerable.
The question above is even more difficult. And it’s a much tougher
question than it was in the 1930’s.

My favorite scene of the first Superman movie was where Lois Lane
falls off a wrecked helicopter, and Superman swoops down and catches
her. “I’ve got you!” he exclaims. “But who’s got you?” she answers. In
the 1930’s, there were anchors. The Soviet Union, whatever its ills,
was a bulwark against German fascism. The Soviet Union was an anchor
for communist parties throughout the world, including the U.S. The
CPUSA, whatever its ills, was an anchor for the trade movement. There
was an organized force that other progressives could cluster around,
even as some of those forces vocally despised the CPUSA and the Soviet
Union.

Additionally, when Germany launched its war of eastern conquest, there
was democratic America -- even more powerful.

But if fascism descends today, there are no anchors. The U.S. would be
cast as villain, and the Soviet Union is no more. There is now just an
unruly mob. Again off to the movies, this time the Tin Star. At the
end, Sheriff Tony Perkins (Henry Fonda behind him) stands down a
drunken lynch mob, then guns down its leader, and western democracy is
preserved (it was a western). Personally, I would like to identify
with Tony Perkins, but I fear that we progressives more closely
resemble the drunken mob. The mob had no cohesion, to every member it
was him staring down the barrels of Tony Perkins’ shotgun. And on that
basis, each one backed off and went back to the saloon, leaving the
villainous (in this case) leader dead in the dust.

Too historical for you? Then take the healthcare fiasco (please).
Robust public option, rah, rah, rah. Wiener caves. Grijalva caves.
Sanders caves. Kucinich caves. No one can trust anyone, each one backs
down. WE can’t trust any of them. Hope of stopping it rests with the
vile Stupak, for Chrissake. Whether it passes or not, they’ll head
back to the saloon muttering, “We’ll improve it, yeah, that’s it,
we’ll make it better next month. Or next year. Whenever.” And they and
we all know it’s a lie.

Patriot Act? That didn’t even get a squeak. Not from progressive
politicians. Barely from us. And that’s heavy shit.

There is no WE! Some people know me as a royal pain in the ass. Pushy.
People write heroic stuff about we must do this, and we should call
for that, and we must expose whatever. And I simply ask, “who is the
we?” and “through what organization?” And ... nothing. The question is
apparently unworthy of answer.

Perhaps there is an assumption that we is understood as all of us as
we now are, and that if we keep exposing the atrocity of the hour
(which we should certainly keep doing) and roaring our indignation
(indignation is good), then somehow WE will magically coalesce into a
coherent force? Or the masses will be sufficiently educated by our
plaints so that THEY will magically coalesce into a coherent force? Or
that there ARE good organizations who will be bulwarks against
fascism, even if their activity isn’t manifest at this moment?

Yes! There ARE good organizations out there who could be bulwarks
against fascism. But then it would seem the task is to specifically
identify them, debate whether they truly fill the bill, and discuss
HOW to unite them into a cohesive force.

And better yet, how they, as a cohesive force, will draw in the many
being destroyed at this very moment and make them part of that
cohesive force. The poor. Blacks and Latinos and Arab-Americans. Those
marginal to current-day progressivism. I can’t do it. I can call for
worker-peasant-soldier self-defense committees against fascism, but it
would be bullshit. Nor does this force have to have the label “anti-
fascist.” The unions in the 1930’s weren’t set up as anti-fascist
armies. They were set up as unions. They were a force against fascism
because it was in their interest, and because they were independently
organized.

Likewise, I’m not calling for explicitly anti-fascist organizations.
All I’m calling for is independent organizations. Whether working
within the Democratic Party or 3rd party, or non-electoral, the key is
being independent. The healthcare issue has turned out so badly, and
the jobs issue is going to turn out so badly, because there is no
independence, progressives are all hooked to the conveyor belt, the
key issue, it seems, is whether passing the healthcare bill will be
good for the Democratic Party or this or that politician’s career, and
its effect on real people is only a bloody shirt they drag out for the
cameras.

But there is a point of no return. Barbarism is a possibility. If you
don’t believe it, look out your window. Yet, remember what I said
about Germany. It had a choice of whether to choose fascism or not. So
while I project the very real possibilities of fascism, I by no means
consider it inevitable. This country also faces choices. In our case,
it looks something like whether the United States desperately tries to
maintain its position by brute force, or whether it is willing to
become an economic partner -- if not the ruling partner -- in a world
economy increasingly led by the China/Russia/India/Brazil bloc. That
is also a real possibility, though some will resist it to the death.

I refer at times to the ruling class, but one thing to note is that
the ruling class is no longer American. Wherever they were born, they
have long become detached from U.S. soil. They operate among the
countries of the entire world, see Empire by Hardt and Negri. From
their perspective, capitalism does not rise or fall according to the
well-being of the United States specifically. These are among the
people who have done the NAFTA deals and outsourced my job to the
Philippines. They have no inherent interest in the U.S. going fascist.
They would prefer, I guess, it go down with a whimper, keep selling
everyone else lots of wheat and beef at cheap prices.

We, the people

You ask what I recommend? Engage the “we” question, as squishy and
uncomfortable as that may be. Who are “we” and how do we both become
and create a larger organized force? Traditional trade unionism is
dead. What is an alternative? What is the critical mass with which the
blogosphere becomes a power projector rather than an angry mob? I can
make up stuff, but if no one follows it, so what?

There is a point of no return.

Nice perspective on the tea-partiers
By lambert on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 12:03pm
Let the pros take care of that; it's what they're paid to do. No
reason for us to do their work. Opportunity cost!

Excellent point on "independent."
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you,
then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

you mention (I paraphrase)
By Rangoon78 on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 12:29pm
you mention (I paraphrase) Tea Party folks being budded around by
corporate dollar weilding Astroturfers; isn't that a lot like the
Obama permanent campaign highlighted by theri caucus goons:

http://www.correntewire.com/the_tx_caucu...

yes
By jeffroby on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 12:32pm
pseudo-masses. But it works.

If the system is broke, don't fix it!

Wow...
By mass on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 1:06pm
great post. Reminds me a little of Reich's Mad as Hell Party proposal
although this is much meatier.

"When a social movement adopts the compromises of legislators, it has
forgotten its role, which is to push and challenge the politicians,
not to fall in meekly behind them."--Howard Zinn

My opinion?
By CMike on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 1:14pm
This post is too long for this medium. That said, I enjoyed reading
it.

Given the misunderstanding of macroeconomics at the time and your
concession that "Germany was in crisis, crushed by reparations to
England and France ...," I'm not following your "Germany had begun to
re-arm well before 1933, and had already been defaulting on its
reparations under the tutelage of the U.S. [*]" and your "[Germany]
had a choice of whether to choose fascism or not" points. Whohad
exactly whatchoice in Germany before Hitler became Chancellor?

According to Wikipedia:

Chancellor Franz von Papen called another Reichstag election in
November [1932], hoping to find a way out of this impasse. The result
was the same, with the Nazis and the KPD [the Communist Party of
Germany] winning 50% of the vote between them and more than half the
seats, rendering this Reichstag no more workable than its predecessor.
But support for the Nazis had fallen to 33.1%, suggesting that the
Nazi surge had passed its peak – possibly because the worst of the
Depression had passed, possibly because some middle-class voters had
supported Hitler in July as a protest but had now drawn back from the
prospect of actually putting him into power.

The Nazis interpreted the result as a warning that they must seize
power before their moment passed. Had the other parties united, this
could have been prevented, but their shortsightedness made a united
front impossible. Papen, his successor Kurt von Schleicher, and the
nationalist press magnate Alfred Hugenberg spent December and January
in political intrigues which eventually persuaded President Hindenburg
that it was safe to appoint Hitler Reich Chancellor at the head of a
cabinet which included only a minority of Nazi ministers, which he did
on 30 January 1933.

By convention, it's BRIC not CRIB.

If you haven't seen it all ready, you might find this Q & Chomsky A of
some interest.

I too wince at its length
By jeffroby on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 2:34pm
Germany was on a course of re-armament, including battleship
construction, before 1933. Other moves were made to rebuild the
military under seemingly innocent guises, some based on the Freikorps,
others like adult boyscouts undergoing military training but not
carrying guns. France and Britain were reluctant to stop this, partly
out of fear, partly because a MODERATELY re-armed Germany was a
barrier between them and the Soviet Union.

There were various moratoriums on the reparations, I believe, by 1931.
There was a complex web of debt. Britain and France were also deeply
in debt to the United States. If Germany didn't pay, they couldn't
pay. There were variations of the U.S. forgiving the British/French
debt if they forgave the German reparations. Part of the deal was that
Germany would remain unarmed, with the U.S. providing its security
guarantee against the British and French, who were military stronger
than Germany even in 1939.

The U.S. did not do this because the U.S. was a beacon of freedom.
Germany was massively in straight-out debt to the U.S. Not
reparations. Just debt. The U.S. was not forgiving this. Germany's
choice was to agree to a subservient relationship with the U.S. or
cancel both reparations and U.S. debt payments. The former was viable
because, as you note, "the worst of the Depression had passed." That
it hadn't passed was largely because of the collapse of the payment
arrangements. Once Germany decided to cut loose, the drive to war was
on. Did Hitler make a difference in how it played out? Of course.

I'm aware that Nazi vote totals had declined slightly. But my point is
that were was a drive towards war that existed independently of the
Nazis. You quote, "it was safe to appoint Hitler Reich Chancellor."
Another interpretation might be that they had to strike while the iron
was hot or a non-Nazi government might not have given them their war.

If the system is broke, don't fix it!

thank you for writing this
By DCblogger on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 1:12pm
I have been thinking that we should abandon the Versailles metaphor
for Wiemar. Obama and the Dems have done nothing to prevent the slide
to fascism. Having seen the tea party in person in DC, I can tell you
they strike me very mujch as proto storm troopers.

the sad thing is that I think that Obama & Co think it is clever to
use the tea party as a foil to fool us into supporting corporate Dems.
Some people are fooled, but not enough, not nearly enough. Ian is
right. If you value your liberty, leave the US.

If, like most of us, that is not an option, well, just do the best you
can to not be part of what is to come.

Heartily agree that fascism isn't...
By tarheel-leftist85 on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 1:19pm
...a checklist, but i would suggest that it can be distilled into one
thing: corporatism, or the use of state power to extract wealth
(rents?) from the public and transfer said wealth to corporations.
Everything else on the checklist flows from this. Scapegoats and
identity politics are invoked to consume the public and displace
anger. Rabid reactions to creeping socialism reinforce the idea that
fascism is ideological--specifically, anti-socialist. And though we
have two "competing" legacy parties, there is the one neoliberal/
corporatist ideology--effectively making this a one-party state. So in
the sense that fascism is, or at least requires, corporatist
governance, we are living in a fascist state. I would also argue that
people are on solid ground when they call Obama a fascist, rather than
calling him or any of the Democrats socialist.

The problem with much of the tea party crowd is that they conflate two
antithetical ideologies with one another. Socialism would have meant
removing the parasite that is our current financial system and
nationalizing banks, or something like a North Dakota-like public bank
in every state; fascism would involve extracting tax dollars from the
public and transferring that wealth to private banks. Socialism would
have meant removing the parasite that BHIPs are through combinations
of nationalizing the pharmaceutical and insurance sectors or going
with an NHS-type program; fascism involves extracting rents from the
public that are then transferred to insurance, pharmaceutical,
hospital-system parasites. Socialism would involve a completely
publicly-operated national security and defense; fascism involves
extracting rents from the public and transferring that wealth to
companies that drive our "foreign" policy--including invasions and
occupations to open up markets and privatize sectors that once-
sovereign nations had agreed should be removed from the market.

I agree that independent movements are the way to go. I would caution
against using the Democratic Party as any sort of vehicle, however.
Because the corporatism has metastasized to every single member (I'm
afraid even the congresscritters that vote against the BHIP bailout),
good policy and good ideas will go to die in something as cancerous--
no matter how potent the treatments are administered. A non-partisan
independent movement would have the benefit of denying the public
signals, perhaps compelling citizens to look at candidate policies. It
would avoid the marketing strategies of both legacy parties. The two
legacy parties "competing" for market share or viability don't care
about majority status; rather, they care about maintaining the
perception of viability (that they could eventually assume the
majority). It's like taking a duopolistic market, where each company
sustains the other with the mutual goal of extracting as much wealth
from their customer base as they possibly can.

And it makes sense that there is no "we" in such a system. How are
people to unite to combat the corporatist duopoly? A third party, i
suspect, would result in a corporatist triopoly. This might even be
the case in places like the UK, where there is a multi-party system.
Instead of a two-party neoliberal/corporatist consensus, there is a
three-party neoliberal/corporatist consensus. A non-partisan alliance
with a common policy platform, i believe, would stress the system such
that one of two things happens: (1) over many iterations, the non-
partisan candidates begin to defeat members of legacy parties, with
each legacy party truly turning against one another to prevent the
viability of independent candidates/ideas, or (2) both legacy parties
unite with the mutual goal of preventing the viability of independent
candidates/ideas (at which point the public may begin to recognize the
common goals of the legacy parties and move en masse towards
independent candidates with the common platform (maybe the Justice
Platform, instead of a Justice Party?) and from a candidate/party-
centric politics towards a more policy-centric orientation.

More immediately, what can be done? Boycott all corporate news, move
your money out of the big six, and avoid the legacy parties like the
plague. The do's: teach-ins, general labor and consumption strikes,
civic disobedience, etc.

It's all about rents and rent-seeking.

Your analysis is spot-on, though ...
By jeffroby on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 2:40pm
When you say:

So in the sense that fascism is, or at least requires, corporatist
governance, we are living in a fascist state

The reason why I call fascism a movement rather than a state of
affairs is that the possible options you suggest indicate we have not
reached a point of no return. That's where I say, "fascism is here."

But I'm not going to quibble about labels. You understand the forces
in play. That's the important thing.

If the system is broke, don't fix it!

reperations
By DCblogger on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 2:46pm
I was struck by what you said about Hitler stopping payment on
reparations in 1933. What do you want to bet the Sarah Palin
repudiates the debt early in her administration? I know that that
would be anti-corporatist, but it would solve many of her problems.

except the debt is part of how the people are held down, and she would
want to maintain that.

Came across this yesterday: Witness says police overwhelmed
By jawbone on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 1:36pm
by Tea Partiers, quoting report by Brian Beutler at TPMDC:

Standing next to Lewis, emerging from a Democratic caucus meeting with
President Obama, Carson said people in the crowd yelled, "kill the
bill and then the N-word" several times, while he and Lewis were
exiting the Canon House office building.

"People have been just downright mean," Lewis added.

And that wasn’t an isolated incident. Early this afternoon, standing
outside a Democratic whip meeting in the Longworth House office
building, I watched Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) make his way out the
door, en route to the neighboring Rayburn building. As he rounded the
corner toward the exit, wading through a huge crowd of tea partiers
and other health care protesters, an elderly white man screamed
"Barney, you faggot"–a line that caused dozens of his confederates to
erupt in laughter.

After that incident, Capitol police threatened to expel the protesters
from the building, but were outnumbered and quickly overwhelmed. Tea
party protesters equipped with high-end video cameras were summoned to
film the encounter and the officers ultimately relented.

Walmart hit by ginned up anger against immigrants, blacks:
By jawbone on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 1:47pm
In Turnersville, NJ (Gloucester County in southern NJ) Walmart, a
teenager got onto the PA system and announced blacks had to leave the
store.

The teenager has been arrested.

At a local Walmart here in Morris Plains, NJ, a notice was taped to
the inner entry doors saying that emails and text messages that
Walmart was arranging raids on illegal immigrants shopping there were
totally false. I didn't write down the exact wording, but I made the
connection.

Z
By DCblogger on Sun, 03/21/2010 - 1:54pm
four minutes into this clip from Z shows what the tea party is like.
notice the attacks on all political parties.

http://www.correntewire.com/fascism_there_point_no_return

AGENDAMARCH 22, 2010

Resolvinging Europe's Economic Dilemma Will Require More Than Sleight
of Hand By IRWIN STELZER..ArticleCommentsmore in Europe Home
».EmailPrintSave This ↓ More.

.U.S. President Harry S Truman, weary of hearing his economists
conclude "on the one hand, but then on the other hand," famously asked
for a one-armed economist. He's fortunate he never found one. For any
economist who feels certain about his reading of the economic tea
leaves, who sees no "other hand," is, to put it mildly, more than a
little overconfident.

All by way of excuse for this attempt to figure out just what is going
on in the European Union and euroland.

View Full Image

Associated Press

Luckily for U.S. President Harry Truman, he never found a one-armed
economist
.On the one hand, things are brighter than they were last year, when
the areas' economies were contracting at a rapid rate. No one is
expecting that dismal performance to be repeated this year or next.
But on the other, neither is anyone expecting anything like
satisfactory growth. The Economist Intelligence Unit is guessing that
growth will be at an annual rate of 1.0% and 1.1%, this year and in
2011, respectively.

The move out of recession is the result of an increase in exports. On
the one hand that's good news: Otherwise, the EU economies would
continue to shrink. But on the other hand, some of the increased
exports, especially those from Germany to other euro-zone countries,
are exacerbating serious imbalances. Germany's trade surplus with its
EU partners is causing serious problems, especially for the struggling
periphery countries.

"Germany's…trading partners cannot sustain deficits forever," notes
the Economist.

Germany's surplus is its EU partners' deficits, which they have to
finance by borrowing. And borrowing is precisely what Greece and
similarly situated countries need less of. Europe needs Germany to
base more of its growth on domestic demand, its consumers to start
spending and stop paying down debt, neither of which they show signs
of doing.

As Jefferies, the securities and investment-banking firm, points out
in its latest report, consumption in Germany comes to only 57% of
gross domestic product, compared with closer to 70% in the U.S. and
the U.K.

Then there is the news coming out of Berlin, Athens and Brussels.
Greece won't cut spending unless it is guaranteed that its euro-zone
partners will somehow enable it to borrow at lower interest rates.
Otherwise, argues Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, the premium
the country now pays— more than three percentage points above what
Germany is charged— will eat up a good portion of the savings from his
austerity program.

But German Chancellor Angela Merkel, after dithering and trying to
find some way to avoid becoming the banker of last resort for
profligate, inefficient members of the euro zone, finally hit on an
alternative. She told Mr. Papandreou to take his troubles to the
International Monetary Fund, outraging her euro-zone partners who find
that a humiliating admission of their inability to manage their
currency without outside help.

As Mrs. Merkel's partners see it, Greece would be merely the first
domino to fall. Spain might well be next. Its socialist government is
having some second thoughts about the extent and speed at which it
should impose an austerity program, inflicting pain on public-sector
workers, or begin cleaning up the mess in its banking system. The
country's 44 small regional banks, or cajas, have some half of their
$1.8 trillion in assets tied up in property loans. Of those, somewhere
between $220 billion and $330 billion (estimates vary) are loans to
property developers, many of which are in no position to repay. The
government says one-third of the cajas are insolvent, and is hoping to
solve the problem by organizing mergers with healthy institutions, but
is running into opposition from regional politicians, who would much
prefer some sort of bailout. If the IMF rescue team heads to Europe it
might just as well visit Madrid as Athens, pain-averse Spanish
politicians might decide.

All of these problems have driven the euro down from its November peak
of around $1.50 to about $1.37. With the U.S. economy recovering at a
more rapid rate than Europe's, and with the Federal Reserve likely to
raise interest rates sooner than the European Central Bank, experts
are expecting the euro to continue to weaken against the dollar. On
the one hand, this is good news. Europe's exporters now find their
goods more competitive in world markets, even against those made in
China, which pegs its yuan to the strengthening dollar.

On the other hand, a weaker euro raises the price of imports,
especially those, like oil, that are denominated in dollars. That
increases the possibility that when the EU economies do start to
recover, inflationary pressures will force the European Central Bank
to tighten sooner than it might otherwise want to do. On the one hand,
that is good news: It would contain inflation. On the other hand, it's
bad news: It would slow the recovery.

All proof that Harry Truman was wishing for something that just
doesn't exist.

—Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic-policy
studies at the Hudson Institute.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704534904575132061301158560.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel

Meirelles Says U.S.-China Imbalance Won’t Hurt Brazil (Update1)
By Jonathan J. Levin

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s Central Bank President Henrique
Meirelles said an imbalance between the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan
would be resolved over time and is unlikely to hurt the Brazilian
economy.

“I’m expecting the imbalance between these two countries to be
resolved over time,” said Meirelles, speaking to reporters in Cancun,
Mexico, on the sidelines of the annual Inter-American Development
Bank’s annual meeting.

Meirelles said that Brazil would not be affected by a rebalancing of
the two currencies because its trade portfolio is diversified.

U.S. lawmakers are urging President Barack Obama to step up pressure
on China to allow the yuan to rise, accusing Beijing of keeping its
currency unfairly cheap to gain export advantage. The Treasury
Department is set to decide in April whether to label China as a
currency “manipulator.”

China has kept the yuan at 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to shield
the exporters from the global recession. It allowed the currency to
appreciate 21 percent in the previous three years.

“Our economy is diversified and is growing now basically led by
domestic demand, which means that we are prepared to face these kinds
of scenarios,” Meirelles said.

Meirelles said the greatest foreign threat to the Brazilian economy is
increasing risk aversion caused by credit problems in some Europe
nations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Levin in Cancun,
Mexico at ***@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 21, 2010 15:52 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ahy8AxoSk.g8

NZ Dollar Outlook: Speeding economy may limit dips
13:53 March 22, 2010Article 0 comments
Article – Businesswire

March 22 (BusinessWire) – The New Zealand dollar may be supported this
week by data expected to show the domestic economy grew at its fastest
pace in two years, limiting the currency’s dips below 70 U.S. cents.

NZ Dollar Outlook: Accelerating economy may limit dips in kiwi
By Paul McBeth

March 22 (BusinessWire) – The New Zealand dollar may be supported this
week by data expected to show the domestic economy grew at its fastest
pace in two years, limiting the currency’s dips below 70 U.S. cents.

Five of seven economists and strategists in a BusinessWire survey
predict dips below 70 U.S. cents will be limited. Three strategists
forecast the kiwi will trade in a range this week, while one is
picking it will edge lower, though won’t fall below 70 cents. Two
economists expect the kiwi will decline this week, and one predicts it
will gain.

GDP expanded 0.8% in the three months ended Dec. 31, its fastest pace
since the same quarter of 2007, according to a Reuters survey, with
forecasts ranging between 0.5% and 1.2%. The central bank forecast a
0.6% expansion for the period in its March monetary policy statement.
In June last year, New Zealand climbed out of its worst recession in
19 years, though the fourth quarter is expected to show the first
period of marked growth in what has been a tepid recovery.

“If the data comes in line with expectations, the kiwi probably won’t
do anything” this week with global pressures likely to weigh on risk
sentiment, said Ben Potter, research analyst at IG Markets in
Melbourne. “The kiwi will probably move back towards 70.50 U.S. cents
or 70 even – there’s pretty good support there.”

The kiwi sank to 70.61 U.S. cents from 71.16 cents on Friday in New
York as investors became wary about higher-yielding, or riskier,
assets after the Reserve Bank of India hiked both the reverse
repurchase rate and repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% and 5%
respectively.

Potter said the surprise hike, which came a month before a scheduled
monetary policy meeting, bolstered support for the greenback as
investors prepare for potential rate hikes in China, which will damp
demand for so-called commodity currencies such as the Australian and
New Zealand dollars.

Derek Rankin, director of Ranking Treasury Advisory Ltd., said the
kiwi would face downward pressure this week from the ongoing problems
coming out of Europe. Questions remain over the viability of an EU
bail-out for Greece after German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her
Parliament that the International Monetary Fund may be the only
solution to the Mediterranean nation’s debt woes.

“It’s deeply unpopular in Germany to bail out other nations,” Rankin
said. He predicts the kiwi will push down to about 69.50 U.S. cents.

The European Union will hold a summit at the end of this week, and
Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Danica Hampton expects this
will dominate global sentiment for riskier assets such as the New
Zealand dollar. Hampton predicts the kiwi will trade between 70 U.S.
cents and 71.50 cents this week, with dips below the 70 mark to
attractive for buyers.

Imre Speizer, markets strategist at Westpac Banking Corp., said the
greenback was finding a lot of support due to the ongoing concerns
about Europe, which in turn weighed on the kiwi against the U.S.
dollar.

Still, the weakness was underpinning support for the New Zealand
currency on the cross-rates against the euro and the pound, which he
predicts will hold above 52 euro cents and 47.50 pence this week.

The kiwi dropped to 52.22 euro cents from 52.33 cents on Friday in New
York, and edged up to 47.07 pence from 46.98 pence.

Other New Zealand data out this week is the current account on
Wednesday probably showed the balance of payments in the fourth
quarter shrank to $3.62 billion, or 1.9% of GDP, from $5.7 billion, or
3.1%, according to a Reuters survey. Meanwhile, data on Friday will
show the trade balance was a surplus of $480 million in February,
according to Reuters.

Tim Kelleher, vice president of institutional banking and markets at
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said New Zealand’s stronger economic
data should undo any weakness in the kiwi from concerns in the Euro-
zone, and was the only strategist to pick the currency up on the week.
He predicts it will trade between 70 U.S. cents and 71.25 cents.

The kiwi dollar will probably gain on a trade-weighted basis this
week, according to three of seven strategists surveyed by
BusinessWire. The other four expect the trade-weighted index, or TWI,
a measure of the currency against the greenback, yen, euro, pound and
Australian dollar, will remain in recent ranges, though faces an
upward bias. The TWI sank to 65.47 from 65.71 on Friday in New York.
The kiwi dropped to 63.92 yen from 64.36 yen last week, and declined
to 77.30 Australian cents from 77.34 cents.

On the radar this week will be the U.K. budget out on Thursday, which
comes after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member
Andrew Sentance said the U.K. could face a “double-dip recession” in
an interview on CNBC. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s
Assistant Governor Philip Lowe and Governor Glenn Stevens will give
speeches on Thursday and Friday respectively.

(BusinesWire)

Content Sourced from scoop.co.nz
Original url http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1003/S00572.htm

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2010/03/22/nz-dollar-outlook-speeding-economy-may-limit-dips/

Will U.S. yuan calls make for a stubborn China?
Simon Rabinovitch
BEIJING
Mon Mar 22, 2010 4:20am EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - Beijing's groans over U.S. demands to let the yuan
rise have been grand theater, but domestic currents favoring a
stronger currency are likely to prevail when Chinese leaders cool down
to plot policy.

China's denunciations of U.S. pressure have, combined with other
recent tension between the two powers, fostered the view that Beijing
will put stubborn resistance to foreign hectoring ahead of arguments
for yuan appreciation.

The core of this view is the assumption that the Communist Party and a
nationalist public would find it intolerable to appear to cave in to
external pressure.

But this image of a China boxed in by pride does not stand up to
scrutiny. In a country where maintaining economic strength is
sacrosanct policy, even prickliness over perceived U.S. bullying could
fade way.

Government advisers and analysts say Beijing still has plenty of
political space to implement currency appreciation if it decides that
a stronger yuan makes economic sense.

"If we didn't adjust the exchange rate just because of U.S. pressure,
that really would be manipulation. China is still moving toward market-
based reforms of its exchange rate, but is waiting for the economy to
improve," said Li Wei, head of the Americas division in the commerce
ministry's research unit.

"The main thing is that we will do it according to our own judgment."

Regardless of U.S. threats, Beijing is likely to resume appreciation
in the second half of this year when the global economy strengthens
and Chinese exporters indisputably find themselves on more solid
ground, Li said.

China has in effect re-pegged the yuan at about 6.83 to the dollar
since mid-2008 to shield its exporters from the financial crisis.

CURRENCY MANIPULATOR?

President Barack Obama's government is under pressure to call Beijing
a "currency manipulator" in a Treasury department report due on April
15.

The possible use of that designation, not invoked since 1994, has been
greeted with thunderous rebuttals from Chinese officials.

Yet for all the denunciations, Beijing may be able live with the ugly
label.

"Calling China a manipulator and passing some kind of punitive
legislation are different," said Tao Xie, an expert on Sino-U.S.
relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University. "A label does not
come with any punishment."

If China is deemed a currency manipulator, the U.S. Treasury must
quickly launch talks with Beijing, though no sanctions are required.

A newly introduced Senate bill would be tougher, demanding tariffs on
Chinese products if the yuan does not rise.

Beijing can be excused for feeling that it is has seen this movie
before. Lindsey Graham and Charles Schumer, the U.S. senators behind
the bill, crafted similar legislation in 2005. Their attempt fizzled
out when China launched gradual appreciation in July 2005.

The yuan climbed 21 percent over the next three years.

"The Chinese government may be thinking, 'Let's wait and see. The
storm will pass'," Tao said.

Commerce Minister Chen Deming hinted at the distinction between words
and actions in a speech on Sunday.

"If the U.S. Treasury gave an untrue reply for its own needs, we will
wait and see," he said. "If such a reply is followed by trade
sanctions, we will not do nothing."

PREPARING THE GROUND

There are signs that China is preparing the ground for a resumption of
yuan appreciation.

Since the re-pegging nearly 22 months ago, the rhetoric out of Beijing
has grown predictable: a stable yuan has helped the economy and the
global recovery.

In the last few weeks, this has started to change.

State newspapers have run a series of reports about officials visiting
export hubs to 'stress test' how firms would cope with appreciation.

And in his most important news conference of the year, Zhou Xiaochuan,
China's central bank governor, described the "special yuan policy" as
a temporary stimulus policy that would end "sooner or later."

It will probably be for President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao to
decide whether to let the yuan rise again.

The official policy description -- keeping the yuan "basically stable
at a reasonable and balanced level" -- has been consistent since 2005,
leaving them with considerable discretion to resume mild appreciation,
said Victor Shih, a political scientist at Northwestern University in
Illinois.

"Things change very fast. If inflation does increase, arguments can
change. If exports do recover very quickly, arguments can change,"
Shih said.

"They can say, 'no, we are not doing it because some laowai
(foreigner) is telling us to do it. We are doing it for these other
reasons'."

Hence the relatively mild market jitters thus far.

While the war of words with the United States has made headlines,
forecasts of a pick-up in both exports and inflation still dominate
the outlook for the yuan.

The yuan fell to a five-week low in offshore forwards on Monday, but
the implied expectation of a 2.3 percent rise over the next 12 months
was still well within the range tracked since late last year.

(Editing by Chris Buckley & Jan Dahinten)

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...and I am Sid Harth
Sid Harth
2010-03-23 15:10:23 UTC
Permalink
Economic Snapshot for March 2010

Traders react on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Companies
are now sitting on cash, but they're going to need to spend it on
investments and people for the economy to recover.

SOURCE: AP/Richard Drew
By Christian E. Weller | March 23, 2010

The economy has grown again since the middle of 2009, in large part
because the economic stimulus—the American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act—helped to fill the hole in the private sector left by the
recession. Private sector economic activity is expanding and boosting
companies all across the country. Nonfinancial corporate profits have
handsomely risen since the end of 2008, corporations are sitting on
more cash than they have at any point in the past 45 years, and they
are beginning to spend this money. But they’re primarily using it to
pay dividends and buy back their own shares instead of making
investments and hiring.

Economic policy now must ensure stronger job growth and more business
investments. The focus first needs to be on personal income through
job creation and support for the unemployed. More income will mean
fewer foreclosures, credit card defaults, and bankruptcies, which in
turn will mean more consumer demand and lower credit costs that will
both boost business investment. Policy can then create a more
predictable investment climate, especially through health care and
energy reform. Prices for health insurance and energy will become more
predictable and thus more manageable, enticing more business
investments. Companies have the money to help the economy. Policy now
needs to create the right environment to boost private sector
employment and investment.

1. The U.S. economy has turned the corner. Gross domestic product grew
at an annual rate of 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, the
largest gain since the third quarter of 2003. The Recovery Act
provided additional income to consumers and businesses, which led to
more business investments. Investment in inventory stockpiles and in
equipment, such as computers and software, explained more than three-
quarters, or 76.3 percent, of the fourth-quarter growth. The initial
policy intervention in the economy thus helped boost private business
spending at the end of 2009.

2. Job losses continue. The U.S. economy shed 36,000 jobs in February
2010. The economy has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began
in December 2007—60.8 percent of which were lost before the stimulus
was enacted in February 2009.

3. The rate of job loss has markedly slowed since the stimulus was
enacted. Job losses averaged 57,000 from December 2009 to February
2010, down from an average monthly job loss of 726,000 in the three
months before the stimulus was passed in February 2009.

4. Unemployment stays high among the most vulnerable. The unemployment
rate was 9.7 percent in February 2010. The African-American
unemployment rate that month stood at 15.8 percent, the Hispanic
unemployment rate at 12.4 percent, and the unemployment rate for
whites at 8.7 percent. Youth unemployment stood at a high 25.0
percent. And the unemployment rate for people without a high school
diploma stayed at 15.6 percent, compared to 10.5 percent for those
with a high school degree, and 5.0 percent for those with a college
degree.

5. The unemployed are out of a job for long periods. In February 2010,
6.1 million people had been looking for a job for 27 weeks or more.
The average length of unemployment that month was 29.7 weeks, and 40.9
percent of the unemployed were out of a job for 27 weeks or more. Long-
term unemployment is slightly down from its record in January 2010,
but still remains higher than during any other month.

6. Employer-provided benefits continue to disappear. The share of
private sector workers with a pension dropped from 50.3 percent in
2000 to 45.1 percent in 2007 and 43.6 percent in 2008, and the share
of people with employer-provided health insurance dropped from 64.2
percent in 2000 to 59.3 percent in 2007 and 58.5 percent in 2008.

7. Family incomes drop sharply in the recession. Median inflation-
adjusted family income fell by $1,860 to $50,303 (in 2008 dollars) in
2008 from 2007. This was the lowest family income since 1997. White
family income stood at $55,530, compared to African-American family
income, which was $34,218, or 61.6 percent of white income. Hispanic
family income was $37,913 in 2008, or 68.2 percent of white income.

8. Poverty continues to rise. The poverty rate stood at 13.2 percent
in 2008—its highest rate since 1997. The African-American poverty rate
was 24.6 percent, the Hispanic rate was 23.2 percent, and the white
rate was 8.6 percent in 2008. The poverty rate for children under the
age of 18 rose to 19.0 percent—also the highest level since 1997. More
than one-third of African-American children (34.7 percent) lived in
poverty in 2008, compared to 10.6 percent of white children and 30.6
percent of Hispanic children.

9. Family wealth begins to recover. Total family wealth increased by
$5.7 trillion, or 11.7 percent in 2009 dollars from March 2009—the
lowest point—to September 2009, largely as a result of higher stock
prices. Home values rose by only $585 in comparison, or 4.0 percent
during the same period. Household wealth was still $11.8 trillion
below the level of June 2007—the last peak of family wealth.

10. Corporate profits soar. Profits in the nonfinancial corporate
sector rose in inflation-adjusted terms by 64.4 percent before taxes
and 85.8 percent after taxes from December 2008 to September 2009.
This was the fastest four-quarter before-tax gain since the four
quarters that ended in December 2002 and the fastest after-tax gain
over four quarters on record. Corporate nonfinancial inflation-
adjusted profits in December 2009 were thus higher than at any point
before 2005, although they are still far from the peaks of the last
boom.

11. Companies build cash and spend money on shareholders. Liquid
assets, or cash, made up 6.8 percent of the total assets of
nonfinancial corporations in December 2009—the largest share since
December 1964. Nonfinancial corporations also spent all of their after-
tax profits (106.8 percent) on dividend payouts and share repurchases
in that quarter. Cash, dividend payouts, and share repurchases thus
took precedent over hiring and investments.

12. Home sales show a mixed picture. New home sales in December 2009
amounted to an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate of 309,000—6.1
percent lower than a year earlier. And median new home prices were 2.4
percent lower than a year earlier. In contrast, existing home sales
were 11.5 percent higher and existing home prices were unchanged from
a year earlier.

13. Debt levels remain high. Total household debt equaled 122.5
percent of after-tax income in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is
down from a record high of 130.1 percent in the first quarter of 2008,
but still higher than at any point before the third quarter of 2005.

14. Mortgage troubles stay high. One in seven mortgages is delinquent
or in foreclosure. The share of mortgages that were delinquent was 9.5
percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, and the share of mortgages that
were in foreclosure was 4.6 percent.

15. Families feel the pressure. Credit card defaults rose to 9.5
percent of all credit card debt by the fourth quarter of 2009—an
increase of 126.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007.

Download the snapshot (pdf)

To speak with our experts on this topic, please contact:

Print: Suzi Emmerling (foreign policy and security, energy, education,
immigration)
202.481.8224 or ***@americanprogress.org

Print: Jason Rahlan (health care, economy, civil rights, poverty,
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202.481.8132 or ***@americanprogress.org

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202.481.8182 or ***@americanprogress.org

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202.741.6250 or ***@americanprogress.org

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202.741.6397 or ***@americanprogress.org

Related Articles

Lack of Robust Job Creation Is a Worrisome Trend, by Heather Boushey
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/03/employment0310.html
Economic Snapshot for February 2010, by Christian E. Weller
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/02/econsnapshot0210.html
After Blame, Moving the Burden to Wall Street
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/02/wall_street_tax.html
Economy Gains Momentum with Stronger Business Growth, by Christian E.
Weller
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/gdp_numbers.html
The Foundations of Economic Recovery and Growth, by Michael Ettlinger,
Heather Boushey
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sotu_economy.html

Also by Christian E. Weller

Short-Term Labor Solutions Can Help Persistent Poverty Among
Minorities, February 16, 2010
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/02/poverty_oped.html
Economy Gains Momentum with Stronger Business Growth, January 29,
2010
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/gdp_numbers.html

© Center for American Progress

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/03/econsnapshot0310.html

The Contrarian Trade of the Decade: the U.S. Dollar
Charles Hugh Smith

Just as a speculative thought experiment: perhaps the great contrarian
trade of this decade is cash/the U.S. dollar.

The majority of economic observers seem convinced that the dollar is
doomed, and not in some distant future. The basic reason for this
unanimity is the reasonableness of the basic thinking, which goes like
this:

The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are "printing money" and
flooding the economy with easy money and credit, and the result of
this debasement of the nation's currency will be rampant inflation.

In other words, if a nation greatly expands its money supply without
expanding its production of goods and services, then all that surplus
money ends up chasing scarce goods and services, and you get
inflation: the same sum of currency buys less and less goods and
services.

This is the goal of State policy, according to the standard line of
thinking: The only way the Federal Reserve and the Treasury can "save"
the debt-burdened U.S. economy is by creating high inflation, which
enables debtors to repay debt with "cheaper" dollars. Everyone who
owns debt or low-yield bonds will lose huge chunks of their assets,
but for no-asset debtors, inflation will be the cat's meow.

But perhaps this thinking is wrong on virtually every important count.

I am indebted to my tireless and insightful blogging colleague Mish
for an understanding of money supply: True Money Supply. Here is
Mish's chart of three ways to calculate money supply, and he argues
persuasively for TMS1 as being the most accurate:

While the Federal Reserve successfully goosed money supply in their
massive "quantitative easing" campaign, money supply is no longer
expanding at a fast clip.

The critical distinction between printing press and credit is rarely
discussed: is money literally being printed or is it credit-based? The
distinction has profound consequences. If a government prints stacks
of currency and then distributes the freshly conjured money via
helicopter drops (in the visually compelling imagery of Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke's famous "helicopter drop" quip), then the money supply
has been expanded and distributed into the economy where it then leads
to inflation if the production of goods and services lags money
growth.

But if a government--for instance, the U.S. Treasury--prints bonds and
sells those bonds to raise cash to distribute in the economy, that is
not "printing money." The Treasury bonds are traded for cash presented
by purchasers; the money already exists and is simply being
transferred to the State for distribution into the economy.

If money is being created via the magic of fractional reserves (that
is, via bank credit), then it does not flow into the economy if those
banks do not lend it and if consumers do not borrow it. As Mish has
repeatedly observed, banks cannot be forced into lending nor consumers
into borrowing.

It seems the money "created" by the Federal Reserve and lent to
private banks at near-zero interest rates is simply sitting in the
banks as reserves to offset their continuing horrendous losses. As a
result, it is not flowing into the economy, and thus it cannot trigger
inflation.

In contrast, a State such as Zimbabwe does run its printing presses to
create money, and this explains why it suffers from hyper-inflation.

It can be argued that the billions of dollars the Fed orders into
existence and then trades for Treasury bonds (i.e. to buy T-Bills) is
in fact "freshly created money" that flows into the economy via
Federal deficit spending. True, but then the question becomes, do
these purchases of Treasuries add enough to the $13 trillion U.S.
economy to offset the reduction in credit as people and businesses
either pay down debt or write off uncollectable/bad debt?

According to the Wall Street Journal (Drought of Credit Hampers
Recovery), consumer credit outstanding has shrunk some $119 billion,
or 4.6%, from its peak in July 2008, to $2.46 trillion.

Add in the mortgages paid down, paid off or written down in excess of
new mortgages issued, corporate debt retired or written off, etc.
etc., and it seems the deleveraging that is underway in both consumer
and corporate balance sheets is reducing credit and money supply by
hundreds of billions of dollars.

The Fed purchasing $300 billion or even $500 billion in Treasury bonds
simply doesn't pump enough money into a deleveraging $13 trillion GDP-
economy to create inflation. It merely offsets some of the destruction
of credit going on at every level of the economy.

Thus you can have a central bank shoveling credit-created money into
private banks where it sits, never entering the economy at all. How
can that create inflation? Indeed, as has often been noted by Mish and
others, this is what has happened in Japan for the past two decades:
the central bank shovels money into private banks, who either engage
in "carry trade" activities (borrowing at near-zero interest and then
moving the money overseas to earn a decent yield elsewhere for easy
profits) or they stash the funds to offset their ongoing losses in
defaulted/impaired portfolios.

Those portfolios of impaired assets in Japanese, U.S. and European
banks--just how much are they worth in a transparent "marked to
market" setting? How many trillions of dollars in mortgage-backed
securities, household debt, corporate debt and defaulted/impaired
sovereign debt do these banks hold? If they had to sell those assets
in an open market, how much would they fetch? How big would the losses
be?

Nobody knows, but we can guess the losses are easily in the tens of
trillions of dollars. The accounts of banks keeping defaulted
mortgages on the books are legion; Japan has played the "waiting for
better asset prices" game for decades, and now U.S. banks are playing
the same game: accepting interest-only payments of a few hundred
dollars from homeowners as an accounting gimmick to keep the loan on
their books as "performing."

This artifice does nothing to clear the actual bad debt.

And how about all those impaired off-balance sheet liabilities?
Regulators are not only allowing financial institutions to continue
marking assets to fantasy, they are also allowing them to continue
holding assets off their legitimate balance sheets.

The ever-astute Karl Denninger of the Market Ticker blog has
relentlessly exposed these frauds and accounting tricks.

Since we live in a credit-based monetary system and economy, then
income and collateral are the foundations of credit/borrowing.
Unfortunately for those wishing for vast expansions of borrowing to
fuel inflation, real estate collateral is not just impaired, it has
fallen to historic lows. We can only wonder what this chart would look
like if all real estate was truly marked to market:

The point is that the collateral represented by the average U.S.
household's primary store of wealth--their home--is near-negligible.
Why? As noted above, houses are still being valued far above their
true market value, so any reduction in value comes straight off the
equity.

For example, a house valued at $300,000 on the bank's books justifies
the $270,000 mortgage being held at full value. The homeowner
supposedly has $30,000 in equity/ collateral. But if the house is
actually marked to market at $250,000, the owner's collateral vanishes
and the bank's "asset" (the mortgage) also declines in value.

Second, suddenly-prudent lenders won't lend more than up to about 75%
of loan-to-value (except for the Fantasyland 3%-down payment loans
backed by FHA, which are fast-defaulting). So much of the homeowner's
equity is untouchable. The only collateral which is available to
borrow against is that above 25%--perhaps 10% of the total vaulation
of all homes in the U.S.

And since some 33% of all homes in the U.S. are owned free and clear
(50 million mortgages, 25 million homes owned outright), then the
"owners equity" is largely in the hands of those without mortgages. We
might infer that anyone who resisted the temptations to use their
house as an ATM machine via a home equity line of credit (HELOC)
either does not want/need to borrow against their home or they are
unable to for other reasons (such as low income, poor credit, etc.).

Put all this together and we can deduce that those homeowners who
might desire to extract some equity from their homes via borrowing
have no collateral left to borrow against.

What about other collateral, such as income? As we all know,
functional unemployment/underemployment is around 17%. According to
the BEA, personal income has declined by over $200 billion from 2008
to 2009. (Subtract government transfers and the number is more like
$600 billion.)

The BEA table reveals that "Net increase in household liabilities" hit
$1.8 trillion in 2006 and $1.4 trillion in 2007, and then fell to $146
billion in 2008. Households are no longer borrowing (adding
liabilities). Meanwhile, savings jumped from $178 billion in 2007 to
$470 billion in 2009.

Mortgage debt rose by $1.1 trillion in 2005, $1 trillion in 2006, $686
billion in 2007--and then fell by $106 billion in 2008. No data is
available yet for 2009, but you can bet both mortgage debt and new
liabilities continued plummeting.

So household incomes have fallen, meaning there is less collateral for
new borrowing, and new liabilities and mortgages have both collapsed
from nearly $3 trillion in 2006 to $46 billion in 2008. Yes, from $3
trillion in new borrowing in 2006 to a total of $46 billion in 2008.

That is deleveraging, and adding $300 billion in money supply via
Federal Reserve buying of T-Bills is offsetting a meager 10% of that
decline in household credit.

Now that we've seen that housing and income collateral have fallen off
a cliff and are not recovering, and that households are deleveraging
($3 trillion they were borrowing in 2006 has fallen to a mere $46
billion--more or less statistical error or pocket change in a $13
trillion economy)--then we might ask if those who still have assets
would wish to leverage them into more borrowing/debt.

The vast majority (83%) of other financial assets are held by the top
10% households. here is a chart I reprinted recently in The Stock
Market As Propaganda(March 10, 2010).

Equities (stocks) currently represent about $11.4 trillion of the
total $33.3 trillion in financial assets. Business assets and real
estate make up the remaining $20 trillion in total assets. According
to the BEA, total household assets fell from $63.9 trillion in 2007 to
$52.9 trillion in 2008--a decline of $11 trillion.

The recent stock market rally and "recovery" in housing has caused a
blip up in total assets, which now appears to be rolling over.

Since the bottom 80% of U.S. households only hold 7% of financial
assets ($2.3 trillion spread amongst 105 million households), then
their ability to leverage their declining income and modest assets
into huge dollops of new debt is somewhere between low and zero.

Recall that households added $3 trillion in new borrowing in 2006
alone. So those heady bubble days of credit/money supply growth are
gone for good.

Since the top 10% households own $27 trillion in financial assets, we
might ask what need they would have for new debt.

We might also ask what might happen if nobody comes forward to buy
$1.5 trillion in new Treasury debt every year (money needed to fund
the Federal deficit of $1.5 trillion a year) at very low yields. I
outlined the high probability of this happening in The Trouble With
Bonds (March 18, 2010).

Interest rates will rise. Recall that the Fed does not set yields for
Treasury bonds; that is set by the bond market (supply and demand).
The only way for the Fed to influence the yield of T-Bills is to buy
them outright, as it has been doing heavily of late. Since every other
major nation is also selling bonds to fund deficits, then we can
anticipate some lively competition for investor's cash.

In the standard view that "governments just print money," then why
governments sell bonds is never explained. Why don't all governments
just print up money and spend that? Why go to all the trouble of
selling bonds to raise cash to fund deficits? It comes down to the
distinction between credit-based systems and currency-based systems.

Inflation is impossible in credit-based systems when credit is being
paid down/destroyed/ written off and banks are wary of lending/risk
and consumers refuse to (or cannot) borrow.

We might also ask what might happen to stocks, bonds and real estate
valuations if interest rates rise: they tank as I explained in What If
(Almost) All Assets Fall Together?(March 11, 2010).

As a side-effect, the meager assets of the bottom 90% of U.S.
households would fall, and the "smart money" might well decide selling
out before further declines occur is the wisest capital-preservation
strategy.

Since so much debt is dollar-denominated, then there will be demand
for dollars to pay down debt. That is the essence of deleveraging.

And since other assets will be falling as interest rates rise and risk
aversion returns with a terrible vengeance, then "cash will be King."
Dollars will rise in value, and the best and safest return on capital
will be money-market funds or short-term notes.

Rather than doom the dollar, these trends suggest the dollar could
rise in purchasing power and demand for years to come. I know this is
contrarian, but ponder the distinction between "printing money" and
selling bonds/attempting to expand credit in a credit-averse,
collateral-impaired system.

This might be one of the most important bits I write this decade. Or
then again, maybe not. Only time will tell. Before chastizing me for
rampant hyperbole--"most important story of the decade, bah"--please
consider The Most Important Chart of the Century. Now the chart is
extremely important, and I recommend reading this story, but the
century is a bit young to declare "the chart of the century." One
wonders what the "chart of the century" would have been in 1910, and
how prescient we would find it in hindsight.

Let's say this is one of the most important charts of the past 50
years, which is entirely supportable.

The charts simply shows that adding debt no longer adds to GDP. So
even if the Fed were able to force banks to lend to poor credit risks
and deleveraging borrowers lost their sanity and added to their
liabilities, then the economy still wouldn't grow/"recover." The
"reflating the credit bubble" game is over.

If you haven't visited the forum, here's a place to start. Click on
the link below and then select "new posts." You'll get to see what
other oftwominds.com readers and contributors are discussing/sharing.

Recent Articles by Charles Hugh Smith

The High Water Mark of a Broken System: U.S. "Healthcare"
http://www.benzinga.com/183389/the-high-water-mark-of-a-broken-system-u-s-healthcare

The Wisdom of Crowds: Americans Refusing To Buy Into the Rally
http://www.benzinga.com/182496/the-wisdom-of-crowds-americans-refusing-to-buy-into-the-rally

The Trouble With Bonds
http://www.benzinga.com/180625/the-trouble-with-bonds

Comparing Household Net Worth to Total Credit: U.S. Is Insolvent
http://www.benzinga.com/178161/comparing-household-net-worth-to-total-credit-u-s-is-insolvent

Posted on 03/22/10 at 11:22am by Charles Hugh Smith
by Charles Hugh Smith

http://www.benzinga.com/184769/market-news-%E2%80%93-johnson-johnson-nyse-jnj-bank-of-america-nyse-bac-citigroup-nyse-c

http://www.benzinga.com/184708/the-contrarian-trade-of-the-decade-the-u-s-dollar

Canada's GDP growth to top G7 in 2010
Last Updated: Monday, March 22, 2010 | 1:02 PM ET
Comments94Recommend31CBC News
Canada's economy should grow faster than western Europe, Japan and the
United States, according to a new forecast by the Quebec-based
Desjardins Group released Monday.

That is because the country's domestic economy is in better shape than
almost any other western industrialized nation, said economists.

"Its strong economy makes Canada a special case," said the report.

Decent demand for new products and services by Canadian consumers and
corporations in 2010 means that the country will not be overly reliant
on stagnant overseas markets for improved sales, Desjardins said.

Canada's retail sales helps boost overall economy. (CBC)
Desjardins' report estimates that world trade fell more than 20 per
cent in volume between mid-2008 and mid-2009 and has recovered by a
smaller amount since that time.

The financial institution now figures Canada's gross domestic product
(GDP) could grow by three per cent in 2010.

If correct, the country's economic expansion would surpass the
American growth rate of 2.7 per cent for the current year and outpace
the overall average of countries using the euro by nearly two full
percentage points.

Joining the herd
Desjardins is the latest in a growing list of economists and equity
strategists who see Canada as one of the best performers in terms of
economic growth and equity markets in 2010.

The financial group, for instance, believes the TSX index will jump by
11.5 per cent in 2010 and almost 10 per cent in 2011.

That relatively optimistic outlook — coming on the heels of a 2009
that saw the TSX bounce by 50 per cent — has been echoed by other
stock market experts.

"In spite of its significant outperformance in 2009, we still favour
the superior fundamentals of most Canadian equities, as well as the
Canadian dollar over that of the U.S.," according to a January
commentary by Gluskin Sheff, a major Toronto investment company.

Economic forecasts
Similarly, in recent weeks, a number of economists have produced
strong forecasts for economic growth for Canada.

The Bank of Montreal recently raised its forecast of first-quarter
Canadian GDP growth of 4.7 per cent, up from its earlier prediction of
the same period.

And the Royal Bank of Canada produced a March forecast that pegged the
country's economic expansion at 3.1 per cent for 2010.

Story comments (94)

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/22/canada-economy-desjardins.html#ixzz0j0ewxHOM

Memo to U.S.: Only Fools Rush In
March 22, 2010 · By Sarah Anderson

If negotiators aren't careful, a U.S.-China investment treaty could
prove as explosive as currency manipulation or climate change.
This article originally appeared in the Guardian on 3/21/10.

U.S. diplomats are no doubt eager to find something – anything – on
which the Obama administration and China can agree. So perhaps it
should come as no surprise that they appear eager to make progress in
the seemingly sleepy arena of bilateral investment treaty (BIT)
negotiations.

It's true these deals haven't grabbed headlines in the past, but if US
officials aren't careful, this one could become as explosive as
current redhot issues with China, such as currency manipulation,
computer hacking, and climate change.

It was President Bush who launched the U.S.-China BIT negotiations.
Then last November, Presidents Barack Obama and Hu Jintao announced
they would "expedite" them. According to Inside US Trade,
undersecretary of state Robert Hormats said on 10 March that the
administration is very close to having model treaty text.

Similar to the investment chapters in US trade agreements, BITs give
foreign investors the right to bypass domestic courts and sue
governments in international arbitration tribunals.

The United States has been at limited risk of being the target of such
"investor-state" lawsuits because its 40 current treaty partners are
nearly all developing economies with little investment in the US
market. This lopsidedness has created a one-way street in favour of US
corporations operating abroad.

The China negotiations could change all that. Chinese investors have
ploughed billions into the US economy, particularly in the financial
industry. Under a treaty based on current models, these investors
would have standing to sue the US government over breaches of a long
list of host government obligations.

Of particular relevance to the China BIT is the obligation to provide
foreign investors "fair and equitable treatment." In some cases,
tribunals have interpreted these vague terms to mean that a government
must provide a stable and predictable regulatory environment. On this
basis, they have ordered governments to pay compensation to investors
who claimed that changes in regulations or tax policies had made their
investments less valuable.

At a time when our regulations have just failed to prevent the worst
financial crisis in nearly 80 years, predictability should not be a
top priority. And indeed, the Obama administration is pursuing reforms
that would have been quite unpredictable two years ago and which would
strike at least a short-term blow to some Chinese investments.

Take, for example, the nearly 10% stake in Morgan Stanley held by
China Investment Corporation (CIC), a sovereign wealth fund. Recently,
Goldman Sachs researchers estimated that proposed regulatory reforms
could reduce Morgan Stanley's annual earnings by 15%. President
Obama's plan for a Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee could cost the
firm $800m, they predict, while the proposed "Volcker rule" to
prohibit proprietary trading by banks could cost another $600m per
year.

Could Chinese investors use a bilateral investment treaty to undermine
such US financial reforms? Legal experts are divided. Some argue that
a provision in current US treaties gives sufficient protection against
claims related to financial stability measures. Others, such as
Professor Robert Stumberg, director of the Harrison Institute for
Public Law at Georgetown University, disagrees, pointing to language
in the same provision that arbitrators could interpret as a self-
cancelling loophole.

If the ambiguity isn't fixed, investors could file their claims before
a tribunal and let the commercial arbitrators decide. If the
government lost, they'd have two choices: repeal the reform or pay off
the foreign investors. Neither option would be a winner with the
American public.

Last year, I served on an advisory committee representing business
associations, labour unions, environmental groups, and other
investment experts which unanimously recommended that the
administration conduct a legal analysis of this matter. Nine of us
went further to call for a whole new approach to BITs, including the
replacement of the investor-state dispute mechanism with a government-
to-government one. It's our view that the current system simply gives
foreign investors – including US corporations operating abroad – way
too much power.

Negotiators need to keep in mind that BITs are like straitjackets,
with rules locked in for a minimum of 20 years. With US leaders
struggling to fix our broken financial system, this is no time to rush
into a deal we'll be stuck with for decades to come.

Featured in
The Guardian on March 21, 2010

http://www.ips-dc.org/articles/memo_to_us_only_fools_rush_in

The Fed's Dennis Lockhart Reveals The Three Ways The Greek Crisis
Could Hurt The US
Joe Weisenthal | Mar. 22, 2010, 7:03 PM

In a speech today, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart revealed
three ways the (surprisingly) still ongoing Greek crisis could hurt
the US:

I see three ways the Greek crisis might directly affect the U.S.
economy. First, adjustment across the EU to fiscal problems could
dampen euro area growth and constrain U.S. exports to that region. The
European Union as a whole is this nation's largest export market.
Second, related to this, safe haven currency flows from the euro into
dollar assets could cause appreciation of the dollar and hurt U.S.
export competitiveness. Third is the possibility that the Greek fiscal
crisis could lead to a broad shock to financial markets. This could
play out in the banking system or in the form of a general retreat
from sovereign debt.

Below is the full speech, in which he also talks about recovery
prospects and the muni debt situation. Good stuff:

This afternoon, I will give you an update on the U.S. economy and
comment on conditions in the global economy that affect this country.
I'll also offer views on the interplay between fiscal uncertainty here
and abroad and appropriate monetary policy to achieve both growth and
control of inflation.

The views that follow are mine alone and don't necessary reflect the
views of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Current economic juncture

First, the national economy: I expect first quarter gross domestic
product (GDP) growth numbers will show the economy continues to
recover. The recovery began last summer and accelerated in the fourth
quarter. Fourth quarter growth was driven by what I believe was the
transitory phenomenon of slowing inventory liquidation. Most
forecasters expect the first quarter to clock in at a slower but quite
respectable pace of around 3 percent, and I agree with that view.

Underlying continued growth is a steady improvement in private
spending in the United States. Consumer spending is expanding
modestly.

Business spending on equipment and software is helping to offset
softer housing and commercial construction.

Here in southwest Florida, you are well aware of the challenges faced
in housing. In Naples, house prices have declined 64 percent from
their peak in the second quarter of 2006 and have yet to stabilize.

Nationally, home sales slowed late last year, and sales have eased
further so far this year. Continued stabilization of the housing sector
—especially house prices—is likely a precondition for sustained
economic recovery.

Although job cuts in the United States appear to have tapered off in
recent months, the share of jobless receiving extended unemployment
benefits has continued to grow. Last month's U.S. unemployment rate
remained very high at 9.7 percent.

Another gauge of the labor market is the percentage of people who,
along with the unemployed, have stopped looking for work—so-called
discouraged workers—as well as those who are working fewer hours than
they want. The combined unemployed and underemployed figure is about
17 percent of the workforce.

With job growth negative to flat, real incomes have stagnated. Total
personal income, including transfers from the government, has grown
modestly, but income from wages and salaries has declined from a year
ago.

To give a context for these domestic developments, let me comment on
the international environment in which our economy is evolving.
Overall, the outlook for the global economy continues to improve, and
international trade has rebounded sharply.

Emerging Asia is driving the global rebound, led by China and India.
China's economic growth has been especially strong, lifting global
demand for raw materials and capital goods. Latin America has
weathered this global crisis much better than previous downturns
thanks to stronger economic fundamentals. The region is further
benefiting from rising commodity prices.

Meanwhile, recoveries in key developed economies, which still account
for the largest share of our export market, have been much less
dynamic. Japan's economy has fallen back into deflation, and its
economic growth trajectory remains very uncertain. Europe's recovery
is fragile as concerns mount about Greece and other countries with
large fiscal burdens. I'll discuss this topic more in a moment.
Overall, despite the notable divergence in growth rates between
developed and emerging economies, the global economy is expected to
expand at a solid pace this year, continuing to provide support for
U.S. exporters.

Looking ahead, the central question for the United States is how
strong the recovery will be and how long it will take to reduce
unemployment.

Views about the economic outlook fall roughly into two narratives.
Scenario one is the familiar V-shaped, strong bounce back from severe
recession. In this scenario, growth exceeds the underlying long-term
potential of the economy, and unemployment declines at a steady pace.
Both consumer activity and business investment show growth. Exports
contribute measurably to GDP, reflecting growth of our principal
trading partners, particularly in Asia. The banking system
successfully navigates a troubled commercial real estate sector and
expands credit to both businesses and consumers, fueling a rather
strong recovery.

By contrast, the second scenario is a relatively modest recovery, with
slow reduction of unemployment. Various headwinds hold back GDP
growth. They include (1) a weak banking sector that is slow to expand
credit in part because of weak loan demand and commercial real estate
problems, (2) subdued consumer activity reflecting a more frugal
consumer mindset as well as restricted consumer credit, and (3)
extremely cautious business investment in both inventory and capital
goods.

Most forecasters see a future resembling the second narrative. My
forecast—and that of my staff at the Atlanta Fed—is close to the
second narrative. The recovery under way seems at this juncture to be
tentative and fragile.

Greece and fiscal uncertainty

My staff and I typically incorporate known, somewhat quantifiable
risks into our forecasts. I referred to these as headwinds. They are
factors we expect to be drags on growth. There are other plausible
emerging scenarios that are not factored into my formal outlook. I
monitor these for evidence that they're materializing—becoming real—
and need to be more formally considered. One such concern is what
might be called "fiscal uncertainty."

You've all been reading about Greece and the European Union's handling
of the Greek fiscal crisis. At the moment a nexus of fiscal
uncertainty is the situation playing out in Greece.

Last October, the government of Greece revised its 2009 fiscal deficit
sharply higher to more than 12 percent of GDP. Consequently, the ratio
of public debt to GDP was revised up by 17 percentage points this year
to 125 percent of GDP.

Investors around the world are concerned about Greece's deficit and
rising debt. Market pressures, along with European Monetary Union
mandates, have forced the government to present a credible plan to
tame its deficit. As of today, how this will play out is not clear.

It's worth considering whether this is just a distant development or
one with relevance to us here in the United States. What do fiscal
problems in Greece have to do with my economic outlook for the United
States?

I see three ways the Greek crisis might directly affect the U.S.
economy. First, adjustment across the EU to fiscal problems could
dampen euro area growth and constrain U.S. exports to that region. The
European Union as a whole is this nation's largest export market.
Second, related to this, safe haven currency flows from the euro into
dollar assets could cause appreciation of the dollar and hurt U.S.
export competitiveness. Third is the possibility that the Greek fiscal
crisis could lead to a broad shock to financial markets. This could
play out in the banking system or in the form of a general retreat
from sovereign debt.

At this point, these possibilities are not factored into my outlook in
any way. But developments around the Greek situation deserve rapt
attention.

We have our own set of fiscal uncertainties in this country—at all
levels of government. The National League of Cities projects that
municipal governments will face a shortfall of $56 billion to $83
billion from 2010 to 2012. Local governments in this country are
pressured by lower sales tax revenues and shrinking property tax
digests along with other demands.

On average, state-level governments began fiscal year 2010 with a
revenue-expenditure gap of 17 percent. Three states had expected
budget gaps in excess of 40 percent. Florida's budget gap going into
the current fiscal year (2010) was 23 percent.

Across the country, state governments have responded to these strains
by drawing down rainy day funds, raising taxes, cutting budgets, and
furloughing employees.

To date, some amount of spending cuts and tax increases at the state
level have been avoided thanks to the federal stimulus package, but
that infusion of money is temporary. It appears state budgets next
year will need to shrink considerably to get to balance.

I'm sure you're familiar generally with the situation at the federal
level. According to the Congressional Budget Office, under current law
federal budget deficits rose from an average of about 2.4 percent of
GDP in the period from 1970 to 2008 to 10 percent in 2009. No budget
path currently under consideration would keep the public debt from
growing relative to gross domestic product. Clearly, an ever-rising
debt-to-GDP ratio is unsustainable and a matter of great concern.

Government finances are severely strained at all levels. All of these
fiscal pressures represent another downside risk for the broad
economy. But I see a connection to inflation risk as well. Let me
explain.

The FOMC met last week. In that meeting the federal funds rate target
was kept at the "low as it can go" range of 0 to 25 basis points.
Also, the Committee, in its post-meeting statement, said that economic
conditions are "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the
federal funds rate for an extended period." This policy is obviously
very accommodative, and, in my opinion, is appropriate for a recovery
that is tentative and facing headwinds.

Policy dilemma forming

By congressional mandate, the Fed in conducting monetary policy must
balance support for economic growth and the associated goal of
bringing down unemployment with pursuit of price stability—low
inflation. In my view, the current accommodative stance of policy is
not inconsistent with the dual mandate as long as inflation
expectations remain well anchored.

In these times of fiscal uncertainty I am concerned about the
possibility of a monetary policy dilemma developing. If you, the
public, become convinced nothing will be done to restore the federal
fiscal balance, especially at the federal level, this skepticism may
be reflected in inflation expectations. You may come to believe that
the only plausible scenario is inflating our way out of the problem.

If such a situation begins to develop, the Fed will face a difficult
trade-off between continued support for the recovery and aggressive
action to reanchor inflation expectations.

For the time being, inflation expectations are holding steady, and
incoming data suggest price pressures are muted. It is hard for me to
summon much concern about inflation in the immediate future. Almost
all measures of core inflation show indications of disinflation. But
this pattern could shift. As a policymaker, I have to pay constant
attention.

Inflation expectations as critical factor for policy

In my view, the capacity to maintain interest rates at the level
appropriate to support the recovery depends critically on containment
of inflation expectations.

The Greek drama we're watching with such great interest should
heighten recognition of the urgent need here in the United States for
a credible path to fiscal sustainability. Rising public awareness of
the country's serious fiscal imbalances should serve as a call to
action.

The nation has successfully navigated such challenging circumstances
in the past and can do so again. With a credible fiscal plan, monetary
policy should be able to remain supportive of the recovery that I'm
confident will build in strength.

See Also:

The New Rift In Europe: France And Germany Increasingly At-Odds Over
Greece And EU As A Whole

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-new-rift-in-europe-france-and-germany-increasingly-at-odds-over-greece-and-eu-as-a-whole-2010-3

Greece Has A Completely Unrealistic Rescue Plan For Itself

http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-has-a-completely-unrealistic-rescue-plan-for-itself-2010-3

Get Real, Here's Why The UK Is NOTHING Like Greece

http://www.businessinsider.com/get-real-heres-why-the-uk-is-nothing-like-greece-2010-3

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-feds-dennis-lockhart-reveals-the-three-ways-the-greek-crisis-could-hurt-the-us-2010-3

Posted on Monday, March 22, 2010

By Nancy A. Youssef | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — Beginning this fall, the Marine Corps will guarantee
nearly all Marines 14 months at home for every seven months they spend
in war zones, the first payoff for service members of the United
States' diminishing military presence in Iraq.

The Army hopes to make a similar change by the end of 2011,
guaranteeing soldiers two years at home for every year they're in war
zones.

The change is the first concrete sign that the stress on the U.S.
military caused by the years-long engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan
is beginning to ease.

The lack of time at home between repeated combat tours — what military
planners call "dwell time" — has been blamed for exacerbating a range
of woes, including higher rates of suicide, divorce and domestic
violence among returning troops and a record-high suicide rate in the
Army.

More time at home between combat tours also will allow the military to
address what commanders say is a huge backlog in training that's left
forces with little preparation for events that once were considered
routine. For example, many Marines, who are expected to move from sea
to land, have never been on a ship; instead, they've been on the
ground in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Also on the agenda: more cross-training in the use of different
armaments.

"We aren't trained in a full spectrum of operations," Adm. Michael
Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told troops
stationed in Saudi Arabia during a recent visit. Increasing time at
home, he said, "will allow us to train and more importantly to rest
and be with our families."

Mullen said in an interview with McClatchy that the drawdown in Iraq
was the biggest reason for the change. The military is planning to
have no more than 50,000 troops in Iraq by the end of this summer,
down from the current 97,000.

The price of the nation's eight years of warfare has been high for the
families of deployed troops. At the peak, when the military had
172,000 troops in Iraq, the Army gave troops only 12 months off for
every 15 months were deployed. Marines got seven months at home for
every seven months they spent in combat.

That meant in many cases that troops spent only a few weeks with their
families between deployments as they traveled again to train for the
next tour.

At many of the largest Marine and Army bases, so-called Family
Readiness programs grew to provide additional support for spouses and
counseling for children, who suffer from higher levels of depression
while parents are away.

Commanders hope that the additional time will ease some of those
pressures.

They're also debating what training should be reinstated and what's no
longer needed. They acknowledge that the need to prepare troops
constantly for service in Iraq and Afghanistan has left little time
for training in skills that aren't needed immediately.

For example, the Marine Corps estimates that of its roughly 202,000
troops, only about 15,400 in the last decade have trained regularly in
amphibious warfare, the kind of beach-landing assault for which the
Marines are famous.

For a force that the Pentagon says must be prepared for the "the
broadest range of operations — from homeland defense and defense
support to civil authorities, to deterrence and preparedness
missions," the limits on training have been risky.

"Not only do we have to fix equipment but modernize" the force, said
Brig. Gen. David H. Berger, the Marine Corps' director of operations.
"We haven't had the time to do that."

The Marines will institute the increase in home time this fall when a
major rotation of troops comes out of Afghanistan, where 19,000
Marines will be serving.

The Army's plan, which will go into effect sometime next year, would
increase time at home from the current 15 to 18 months to two years
for every combat tour. That might stretch to three years if the U.S.
is able to cut the number of troops it has in Afghanistan, said Gen.
George Casey, the chief of staff of the Army.

Berger said the only developments that could derail the planned
increase in time at home would be a need to increase the number of
Marines deployed to Afghanistan or the outbreak of another major
conflict.

"Once the war in Afghanistan is over," he said, the Marines would be
able to consider 21 months at home for every seven months in a war
zone.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/03/22/90847/as-us-winds-down-in-iraq-troops.html#ixzz0j0kv0Kvx

Health-care legislation's economic/business winners and losers
My colleague Chris Cillizza over at The Fix has done a good job
listing the political winners and losers from last night's House
passage of the new health-care legislation, which you can see by
clicking here.

Let's take a look at the economic and business-sector winners and
losers.

WINNERS:

The health insurance companies: It's pretty funny that President Obama
spent much of the debate over health-care legislation beating up on
health insurance companies and is now poised to sign a bill that drops
a big Christmas present on their doorstep. If there are 30 million
Americans without health insurance, and the new bill says they're
going to get health insurance, where will they get that health
insurance? That's right -- health insurance companies.

The stock markets (so far): Wall Street has shrugged off the
anticipated hangover of health-care legislation to stage a mild rally
today. Some worried that the markets would dive because of a new and
massive government intervention into the private sector, which the
health-care legislation represents. But markets appear to be treating
this legislation as the basest possible news: a shift of money into
the health-care sector. The markets evidently don't care, at least
initially, that the new money flowing into the health-care sector
comes from taxpayers or business-paid fines. They just care that 30
million new customers into the insurance and health-care systems could
mean more revenue for those businesses.

"That means more sales for Pfizer Inc., the world’s largest drugmaker;
UnitedHealth Group Inc., the largest health insurer; and a cluster of
companies led by Amerigroup Corp. that specialize in managing services
through Medicaid, a program that will grow in the remake,"
BusinessWeek writes.

Hospitals: “The deal is basically being made to reduce the cuts they
would get from the federal government with corresponding increases
they’d get from [greater] coverage,” says Jason DeSena Trennert,
managing partner at Strategas Research Partners, quoted here on
SmartMoney. It's like this: Everyone has to go to the hospital, even
people without insurance. When they get treated, hospitals don't make
money. When they get insurance and get treated, hospitals make money.
But here's a potential downside for hospitals: Under the new
legislation, Medicare reimbursement will be trimmed.

Big Pharma: Again, more insured people will buy more drugs, making
pharmaceutical companies' profits grow and their stock go up. Perhaps
the added money into the system will spur innovation at smaller pharma
companies.

LOSERS:

The interstate health insurance market: Conservatives want people to
be able to shop for health insurance the same way they shop for other
kinds of insurance. One way to do this is to allow people to shop for
health insurance across state lines, seeking the lowest price for the
package they want. In the new health-care legislation, people will be
able to shop for insurance, but only from exchanges in their own
states.

Employer-based health insurance (maybe): The U.S. is the only
industrialized nation I know of that so closely links health insurance
to employment. This system, put in place in the middle of the last
century, helps anchor people to their jobs and, effectively, their
geography -- a liability in today's more highly mobile workforce. In
the long view, this is probably a good thing, but in the short term,
it could create instability in the workforce as the de-linking
inevitably happens.

Managed health care: “Within the health insurance group ... the
Medicare advantage plans are the biggest losers within managed care,”
Ipsita Smolinski, president and health-care analyst at Capitol Street,
told CNBC.

Medical device makers: Someone has to pay for the health-care
legislation, which will cost at least $1 trillion, and part of the
burden will be borne by makers of medical devices, which will have to
pay a 2.3 percent excise tax on some devices beginning in 2013,
BusinessWeek reports.

What are some of the other winners and losers that I've forgotten to
include? Let me know via the comments below.

Follow me on Twitter at @theticker.

By Frank Ahrens | March 22, 2010; 2:08 PM ET

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2010/03/economicbusiness_winners_and_l.html

Letters to the Editor

Letters: Health bill will wreck U.S. economy
By Letters to the Editor
March 23, 2010, 12:00AM

Health bill will wreck U.S. economy

This health care “reform” bill will reform nothing, except our
economy. The Republican editorial board suggests we should take what
we can get and go from there.

This is a very bad bill with fuzzy math; double counting savings, 10
years of taxes to pay for six years of benefits and extracting the
very costly “Doctor Fix” from the bill, to name a few.

Isn’t it better to get it right the first time with something so
important and massively expensive? Do you really believe that adding
30 million people to the health-care system, mostly subsidized by the
government, will somehow keeps costs down and lower the deficit?

If you do a little checking, countries that offer health care for all
do nothing but talk about trying to control costs and shorten waiting
times for treatment.

Here in Massachusetts everyone is already covered and the dirty little
secret is that health-care coverage is going to bankrupt our state. By
the way, even though everyone is covered, the poor still go to the
emergency room to be treated. Why? There are not enough doctors and
the wait to see one, if you can, is too long. Do you think it will get
better or worse with “reform”? We deserve better, but this isn’t it.
--RON BRADLEY
--Springfield

Inheritance tax drives people south

I always enjoy reading Barbara Bernard’s columns and her March 19
column was no exception.

Her column made me aware of a problem I honestly did not know existed.
I knew people spent the winters in Florida, but had not idea so many
Massachusetts residents were making Florida their permanent
residence.

The explanation of the inheritance tax made me realize why citizens of
Massachusetts are leaving, and at a very alarming rate. Why tax people
again and again? The fact that someone saves and pays taxes all their
lives shouldn’t penalize them again.

Here in Massachusetts after we are gone, our families get taxed again
on earnings that were already taxed. We aren’t called “Taxachusetts”
for nothing. Every time our state needs money, it doesn’t spend down,
it finds other ways to hit us in the pocketbook. I assure you I have
no interest in this tax other than it is outright unfair.
--ANN LeBLANC
--Holyoke

http://www.masslive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2010/03/letters_health_bill_will_wreck.html

http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/64ca7808f39c8b4f/d97a6be8ce691547#d97a6be8ce691547

...and I am Sid Harth
Sid Harth
2010-03-24 21:51:44 UTC
Permalink
How to trade forex cross pairs
Marek D. Chelkowski
Published 4/1/2010

The U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world and as such, its
fundamentals and technicals are paramount in any trade involving it.
There are times when some news out of the Fed creates a market spike
that takes you out of a trade.

In the last 20 years, the world that was divided politically between
the ideologies of democracy and communism has become one, with a few
small exceptions. The global financial players have responded to that
transformation by sharing one stage and having access to equities,
bonds and commodities the world over almost equally and
instantaneously.

This brings us to a central place in today’s financial world: currency
markets. The spot currency markets are not only central within the
global financial system, but they also have become an asset class.
They offer great opportunities to traders and asset allocators alike
with uninterrupted trading from 5 p.m. EST on Sunday in New York until
the same time on the following Friday. The inter-bank currency
markets, long a domain of large banks, hedge funds and professional
speculators, in 2001 welcomed small investors.

Many banks and futures commission merchants (FCMs) made it possible
for investors with a few thousand dollars to trade their accounts by
offering electronic trading platforms with multiple currency crosses.
The currency markets are not linear. Crosses of the U.S. dollar vs.
major currencies are certainly an intricate, most liquid, very
important component of the forex markets, but many other pairs offer
great opportunities, if one understands their response, and their
behavior in relation to different multiple events taking place
continuously within the global financial markets. There has never been
a time in recent financial history when equities, bonds, commodities
and currencies have been so intertwined and accessible with the
Internet, allowing the traders to react to markets with one click of a
mouse.

Many traders exclusively trade U.S. dollar versus G-7 currencies, and
by this not only give up many opportunities in other crosses, but
limit their playing field.

The currencies at their core are driven by interest rates, local
economies and flow of funds in or out of that individual currency
zone. There are a few basic differences between trading major crosses
and crosses of other currencies also called exotic crosses. The
liquidity in exotic currencies is certainly lower, which translates to
wider spreads.

For example: while EUR/USD or USD/JPY may have spreads between bid and
offer from choice (no spread) to one to two pips, traders should
expect spreads in exotic currency crosses from three to 10 pips,
depending on the time of the day, which is directly linked to
liquidity and depends on the spreads the dealer offers. However, the
major cross pairs like EUR/JPY are quite liquid.

That also means that the costs of the trade are much higher when one
has to buy/sell with seven-pip spreads. Traders based in different
time zones have to be cognizant of the liquidity in the markets and
upcoming economic numbers in that currency zone and be prepared for
significant volatility during that time.

By trading a wide range of currency crosses, traders may be able not
only to diversify within forex markets but also have an opportunity to
establish positions that to some extent can offset each other.
However, trading multiple crosses resulting in many open positions
creates other problems if one is not versed in the markets and should
only be done by experienced traders.

The pound sterling has an interesting relationship with the dollar and
euro and its own unique fundamentals. There are a couple of instances
in the last six months when a bullish position in the pound vs. the
dollar would have been a loser, but a major winner against the euro.
While the fundamentals of the dollar and euro probably were the major
drivers, if the only way you could play the pound was vs. the dollar,
you had no chance to take advantage of the pound’s outperformance of
the euro (see “Pounding the euro”).

There are a number of crosses that are quite popular with traders and
do not involve the greenback. One of the most popular, very widely
traded is Japanese yen vs. G-7 currencies.

In so-called carry trades, Japanese yen vs. higher yielding currencies
(Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollar or the euro), traders are
selling short yen and buying other currencies for a positive spread in
interest rates. For example, in 2004, Japanese interest rates were
close to zero and the Australian dollar was at 7.25%. Essentially, the
trader was being paid handsomely by borrowing in Japan and depositing
his funds in Australia.

Carry trades are not only a way to capture interest rate
differentials, but also a vote for or against risk as it was
quantified in the financial world. During the height of the financial
mania in 2008, with the risk being priced in relation to U.S.
Treasuries at negligible levels, EUR/JPY was trading close to 170 yen,
and the Australian dollar vs. yen was at 105 yen.

The traders not only got paid with higher interest rates, but also
through capital appreciation. Carry trade crosses reversed violently
when the financial crisis hit in September 2008 and AUD/JPY went from
105 to 55 EUR/JPY from 170 to 114, GBP/JPY from 251 to 118 (see
“Carrying charges,”).

In addition to interest spreads that ballooned between Treasuries and
junk bonds, nothing reflected extreme fear in the markets better than
the carry trades collapse. Another very interesting group of
currencies is commodity currencies: Australian, Canadian and New
Zealand dollars, Brazilian real, South African rand and Russian ruble.
These countries are major exporters of commodities and their
currencies respond to strength or weakness of global economies
accordingly.

While yen crosses are mainly speculative plays based on risk aversion
or lack of it within the financial markets, commodity currencies offer
a look not only at rate differential, but also capture fundamental
differences in their economies and global economic zones that they are
part of. Euro vs. Aussie dollar offers a trade in a cross that
represents Europe, an “old world” very much ingrained in Western
culture, and Australia, which is located in close proximity to China,
India, Indonesia and Japan and benefits from the insatiable appetite
of those countries for commodities. Prior to the implosion of global
equity markets in September/October 2008, EUR/AUD was trading above
2.10, which means it took more than two Australian dollars to buy one
euro. In spite of 350 basis points in interest rates in favor of
Aussie, the emergence of Asia as an economic behemoth, and the less
complicated political structure, demographic and economic advantages
of Australia over the quite fragmented, complicated Eurozone’s bloc of
countries, the market was pricing that cross at least 20% higher than
it deserved. As the crisis hit Europe and the United States greatly,
its influence on Asia and Australia was much tamer, and short-term
interest rates that eventually went to zero in the U.S. and 1% in
Europe stopped at 3.5% in Australia.

The Reserve Bank of Australia was the first major central bank to
raise interest rates. That is why EUR/AUD was trading at 1.60 at the
beginning of 2010, and with the Greece/Portugal/Spain/Ireland
sovereign crisis in full bloom, the same cross is presently priced at
1.49 (see “Sliding euro,”).

These examples show that diversification and the ability to trade many
other crosses in addition to majors can offer tremendous opportunities
for profit. However, one has to understand that trading risks may be
higher, costs of transactions may be greater and there may be somewhat
different volatility, which translates into wider daily trading
bands.Every trader needs to work these factors into their model. If
you are trading a short-term strategy that assumes you can get in and
out of the market with a one or two pip spread, you can’t simply go
from trading the EUR/USD to the EUR/AUD.

From a trader’s perspective, it may mean establishing smaller
positions, wider stops and a more patient approach, because of all of
the above. Trading all of the currencies requires complete
understanding of the risks involved and the fundamental and technical
factors driving forex markets. But there are benefits from widening
your horizons, especially in currencies, where the fundamentals of the
dollar can overwhelm the fundamentals of the specific currency you are
looking at.

Marek D. Chelkowski is a CTA based in Meridian, Idaho. He is a
discretionary trader who exclusively trades spot currency markets.

http://www.futuresmag.com/Issues/2010/April-2010/Pages/How-to-trade-forex-cross-pairs.aspx

US-China currency debacle continues Source: Global Times [01:03 March
25 2010] Comments By Liu Dong

With the US economy still in mild recovery and the unemployment rate
still high, the country's easy monetary policy is expected to be
continuously operational for an extended period, a US high-ranking
official noted Wednesday.

"The US economy is emerging from a very deep recession," but the
"underlying tendencies for growth would likely to be much more
modest," which necessitates a maintenance of the easy policy for at
least six months, Charles Evans, president and chief executive of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said at a press conference in Beijing
talking about current American monetary policy.

"Such an accommodative policy is currently appropriate," San Francisco
Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen noted Tuesday, confirming the
Fed's pledge not to tighten monetary policy, Reuters reported.

"The US' easy monetary policy would negatively affect China's economic
and financial and macroeconomic policies," He Maochun, director of the
Research Center of Economy and Diplomacy at Tsinghua University, said.

"The loose monetary policy weakens the dollar and undermines dollar-
denominated assets to attract short-term international capital, which
drove enormous volumes of ‘hot money' into China," said Ding Dou, an
economics expert at Peking University.
"The dollar devaluation, compounded by excess liquidity, heightened
pressure to appreciate the yuan," Ding said.

"Nevertheless, a sharp rise of the yuan would wreak devastating blows
on export-oriented enterprises and cause massive layoffs, and
subsequently cause incalculable damage to the overall operation of
China's economy,"He Maochun said.
"It is also hard to find an equilibrium exchange rate point and to
define an appropriate level concerning the appreciation margin," He
added.

The Chinese authorities' denial of currency undervaluation has fueled
an ongoing spat between Beijing and Washington.

The irreconcilable interests of both sides ignited spiraling
contention, and "important negotiations" would be initiated in the
coming weeks, US Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman said in an address
at Tsinghua University last Thursday.
Evans was commissioned, at this critical moment, to conduct an
"assessment of how the two economies interact," and devise policies
that "accommodate" the situation.

In a cavalcade of governmental interaction, Zhong Shan, vice commerce
minister, was scheduled to depart today on a visit to the US, and Vice
Premier Wang Qishan, who is in charge of China-US Strategic Economic
Dialogue, met with former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on
March 22.
Premier Wen Jiabao highlighted Monday the significance of the May
dialogue at the China Development Forum. "The mechanism constitutes a
vital opportunity to resolve the friction and problem, and China
prioritizes its vital role."
Huntsman noted that "this year we are putting the relationship to the
test in trying to take it to a new level," and disputes would enable
the two "concentrated … on getting to know one another better and
defining our priorities together."
"The US and China, two heavyweights vital in shaping the world order,
should not be antagonizing rivals, but instead endeavor to forge a
pivot to tackle global issues," He Maochun said.

http://business.globaltimes.cn/world/2010-03/515770.html

Leadership

Why The Yuan Can't Become The World's Reserve Currency
Ignacio de la Torre, 03.24.10, 01:25 PM EDT

Far too many things would have to go right in China and wrong in the
U.S.

When the country emerged as the world's superpower, after a protracted
confrontation, it paid a high price. It had formerly exported capital
and had its public spending well under control; now it ran extremely
dangerous trade deficits and could sustain its funding only by
massively selling bonds to its neighbor across an ocean to the west.
That neighbor built up large trade surpluses as it accumulated those
bonds. No one thought it could ever topple the superpower from its
place as world leader. They certainly didn't imagine that the bond-
buying nation would go on to make its money the world's reserve
currency. But that is exactly what happened.

The U.S. and China today? No. Great Britain and the U.S. in 1918. The
pound went into an inexorable decline after World War I that ended
with the dollar taking over when the Bretton Woods agreements were
worked out after World War II.

The consulting firm McKinsey recently published a study titled, "Will
China's Currency Replace the Dollar as the World Reserve Currency?"
It's a question many people have been asking.

There are several strong-sounding arguments in favor of the
proposition. (1) America's trade deficit has been beginning to seem
unsustainable, and shifting demographics mean it's only going to get
worse. (2) The U.S. has incurred trade deficits repeatedly for far
longer than can be explained by its having the world reserve currency,
and the Chinese Central Bank has long been accumulating reserves,
thanks to its trade surpluses. (3) The Federal Reserve's lax monetary
policy is further weakening the dollar and threatening to trigger
inflation. (4) The U.S.'s enormous and growing foreign debt might
encourage the use of inflation to devalue that debt. (5) Furthermore
the subprime crisis has profoundly harmed American financial systems
and consumers.

But there are at least nine even stronger counterarguments. (1) The
Chinese capital markets would need to have far more liquidity and
transparency before investors would consider using the renminbi
(China's official currency, whose unit of denomination is the yuan) as
a world reserve currency, and there's no sign of that coming about.
(2) The U.S. has never, in its 234 years, missed a payment on its
debt. Right at the dawn of the republic, during the War for
Independence, Congress concluded that nonpayment of debt would be
national humiliation and must never happen. (Argentina's congress took
the opposite route when it approved the nonpayment of debts in 2002,
to the applause of all the legislators present.) (3) Because China is
still a communist dictatorship, its fiscal and monetary policies won't
respond to market forces the way a democracy's do, and that creates a
strong element of uncertainty. (4) China is facing its own demographic
time bomb as a result of laws introduced in the 1980s that limit the
number of births. (5) China's economic growth is based on the export
of low-added-value products and a controlled rate of exchange, which
give it an unbalanced economy with a low level of consumerism. (6)
China is effectively two countries, one urban and developed the other
rural and undeveloped, and the divide between them could lead to
social instability that could threaten the country's economy and
currency. (7) The Chinese economy depends too heavily on exports to
one nation, the U.S., and (8) has structural weaknesses because of a
lack of supply of raw materials. (9) The U.S. economy relies on
innovation and competition to generate productivity; without those
free-market forces China's medium-term competitiveness is more
uncertain.

The pound didn't stop being the world reserve currency overnight. The
process started around 1870 and was completed in 1945. For the yuan to
take over from the dollar, the Chinese would have to do a great many
things extremely well, and the Americans would have to do a great many
things very badly. It just does not make sense to bet on that
happening. The dollar will continue to be the world reserve currency
because, among other reasons, there is no valid alternative,
especially now that the euro has been rocked by Greece's crisis.

Related Stories

Krugman Is Still All Wrong About The Yuan
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/16/krugman-currency-yuan-leadership-citizenship-rein.html?partner=relatedstoriesbox
China Will Lead The Way
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/08/asia-financial-capital-markets-economy-china-currency.html?partner=relatedstoriesbox
The Ascent Of Asia
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/08/asia-supply-demand-markets-economy-china-japan.html?partner=relatedstoriesbox
Chinese Currency Set To Rise
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/22/china-currency-rise-markets-rebuilding-global-markets-lam.html?partner=relatedstoriesbox
Renminbi Roller Coaster
http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/18/renminbi-beijing-china-currency-opinions-columnists-gordon-g-chang.html?partner=relatedstoriesbox

Napoleon is reported to have said "Let China sleep. For when China
wakes, it will shake the world." What Napoleon did not know was that
in 1800 China represented 50% of the world's gross domestic product--
and today it represents 10%, at market prices. China depends far more
on the U.S. than the U.S. does on China.

Many generations will come and go before there is any chance that
China's money will become the world reserve currency. It will probably
never happen.

Ignacio de la Torre is a professor and academic director of the master
in finance programs at IE Business School, in Madrid.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/24/yuan-renminbi-currency-leadership-citizenship-world.html?boxes=leadershipchannellatest

Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.24.10 Wed, 24 Mar 2010 05:08 GMT

European Manufacturing Growth to Slow for First Time in Over a Year
Wed, 24 Mar 2010 03:51 GMT

Japan's Trade Flow Trends Favor Dollar Gains vs Euro, Pound Wed, 24
Mar 2010 02:23 GMT

fx options forecastArticleUS Dollar Forecast to Rally Further on Shift
in FX Options Wednesday, 24 March 2010 18:30 GMT | Written by David
Rodriguez Previous Articles Print RSS Text Size Text Size
ToggleMar, 17 US Dollar May Fall Further Against Euro, Australian
DollarMar, 10 Euro Forecast to Recover Against US Dollar on Options
SentimentMar, 03 US Dollar at Risk of Further Declines On One-Sided
PositioningFeb, 24 US Dollar Forecast to Gain, but Watch for
CorrectionsFeb, 17 US Dollar to Decline on Extreme Forex
PositioningFeb, 10 US Dollar at Risk of Pullback Within Longer-Term
RallyFeb, 04 US Dollar Forecast Remains Aggressively Bullish on Forex
OptionsJan, 27 US Dollar Forecast Bullish on One-Sided Futures
PositioningJan, 21 US Dollar to Continue Appreciating According to
Options, Futures DataJan, 13 US Dollar May Lose Further According to
Options SentimentJan, 06 US Dollar Forecast Turns Short-Term Bearish
on Sentiment ExtremesDec, 30 US Dollar Forecast to Pull Back on Forex
Options SentimentDec, 23 US Dollar Rallies May Slow on Forex Options
SentimentDec, 10 Forex Futures and Options Point to US Dollar
RecoveryNov, 17 US Dollar Forecast to Trade in Choppy Range on Unclear
SentimentNov, 02 Forex Options Point to a Slowdown in US Dollar
GainsOct, 26 Forex Options and Futures Support Calls for US Dollar
Bottom, Euro TopOct, 17 Forex Options and Futures Point to British
Pound, US Dollar Recovery

A significant US Dollar bounce has unsurprisingly coincided with a
jump in forex options volatility expectations, and it seems that FX
markets are reaching an important juncture. The overbought US currency
was, in our opinion, at clear risk for short-term corrections against
the Euro on extremely one-sided sentiment.

A significant US Dollar bounce has unsurprisingly coincided with a
jump in forex options volatility expectations, and it seems that FX
markets are reaching an important juncture. The overbought US currency
was, in our opinion, at clear risk for short-term corrections against
the Euro on extremely one-sided sentiment. Yet markets have proven
that they are yet willing to buy further into Greenback strength, and
we have little reason to fade the Dollar’s impressive momentum. Look
for further US Dollar rallies against the Euro and other important
forex counterparts.

Read a how-to guide on understanding our Forex Options Weekly Forecast
report or view a video on the same. Discuss outlook for individual
currency pairs in our forex forums.

DailyFX Volatility Indices

Euro / US Dollar Options Analysis

A dramatic turnaround in Forex Options Risk Reversals suggests that
Euro/US Dollar declines may continue into the near future, leaving
momentum firmly to the downside. Last week we said that depressed
forex options volatility expectations implied that the EURUSD would
likely stick to its range and bounce off its lows. Yet the sudden jump
in realized and implied vols leaves risks for further currency moves.
As far as futures positioning is concerned, Non-Commercials still
remain heavily net-short EUR/USD but less so than last week—leaving
space for further USD gains.

British Pound / US Dollar Options Analysis

Net speculative positioning on the British Pound is quite similar to
that of the Euro, with Non-Commercial traders very much net-short the
GBP/USD. Similar one-sided extremes in forex options risk reversals
suggest that the GBP/USD may continue to decline through upcoming
trade, and momentum remains firmly to the downside. Watch for further
GBP declines through near-term trading.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen Options Analysis

Forex options market risk reversals on the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair
are once again at bullish extremes, underlining the strong shift to
sell the JPY. There are two ways to interpret the current FX Options
sentiment extremes: the USDJPY is either at risk for pullback or can
remain overbought for longer. Given the severity of the recent move,
we think that short-term risks remain to the topside. Broader US
Dollar momentum may just be enough to push the USDJPY through upcoming
trade.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Options Analysis

Forex futures traders remain very aggressively long the Canadian
Dollar against the US Dollar (short USDCAD), but a substantial shift
in FX Options risk reversals show that many are headed for the exits.
Any bouts of short-covering could easily force further USDCAD
pullbacks and it seems now may be a good time to exit USDCAD short
positions. It is perhaps early to call for an outright reversal, but
further US Dollar strength could easily force the correction many have
been waiting for.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc Options Analysis

US Dollar sentiment against the Swiss Franc is fairly mixed at the
moment, as futures traders remain fairly net-long USDCHF while options
traders bet on weakness. Such relative indecision makes it difficult
to take a strong stance on the currency pair, but our general forecast
for US Dollar strength leaves a modestly bullish bias for the USDCHF.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Options Analysis

The Australian Dollar remains very heavily overbought by Forex Futures
Non-Commercial traders, but a recent pullback in risk reversals
suggests that this could be the start of a bigger pullback. Of course,
we have been caught short at exactly the wrong times on the AUDUSD and
we admittedly hesitate to make a more brazen prediction. Yet if
broader US Dollar strength holds up/continues, any AUD-long covering
could force fairly substantive AUDUSD pullbacks.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Options Analysis

New Zealand Dollar Risk Reversals show that many traders have
aggressively hedged against further NZDUSD strength, and our short-
term bias subsequently remains to the downside. Unlike the AUDUSD,
however, Futures positioning is not overwhelmingly long the New
Zealand Dollar. This leaves perhaps less scope for substantial NZD
pullbacks on long-covering, but our bias nonetheless favors further
losses.

Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com,
***@dailyfx.com

More Articles

US Dollar May Fall Further Against Euro, Australian Dollar
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_options_forecast/2010-03-17-1937-US_Dollar_May_Fall_Further.html
Euro Forecast to Recover Against US Dollar on Options Sentiment
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_options_forecast/2010-03-10-2247-Euro_Forecast_to_Recover_Against.html
US Dollar at Risk of Further Declines On One-Sided Positioning
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_options_forecast/2010-03-03-1916-US_Dollar_at_Risk_of.html
US Dollar Forecast to Gain, but Watch for Corrections
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_options_forecast/2010-02-24-1617-US_Dollar_Forecast_to_Gain_.html

DailyFX - US Dollar Forecast to Rally Further on Shift in FX Options
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_options_forecast/2010-03-24-1830-US_Dollar_Forecast_to_Rally.html#ixzz0j88xZWwO

FOREX-Dollar rises broadly; Portugal downgrade hurts euro
Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:34pm EDT

* Dollar rallies broadly; euro falls to 10-month low

Currencies

* Fitch Ratings cuts Portugal's sovereign rating

* Dollar index hits highest since May 2009

* Swiss franc climbs to record high against the euro (Recasts, updates
prices, adds quote)

NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose across the board
on Wednesday, pushing the euro to a 10-month low after a rating
downgrade for Portugal added to worries about debt levels and growth
in the euro zone's smaller countries.

Fitch Ratings lowered Portugal's sovereign credit rating to AA-minus
from AA, with a negative outlook. For details, see [ID:nWLB0770]

An already weak euro fell to the day's low of $1.3329, according to
Reuters data, its lowest since early May 2009.

Traders said a series of stop-loss orders had been hit near the
$1.3440/30 area in Asia and later in Europe, which prompted further
selling.

In the United States, economic reports on new orders for manufactured
goods and housing data were mixed, although analysts said the
lackluster figures would not prevent investors from buying more
dollars. [ID:nN2396707] and [ID:nN2396501]

"Sovereign credit worries in Europe and Japan are leading to some
general risk aversion," said Michael Malpede, a market analyst at Easy
Forex in Chicago.

In mid-afternoon trading in New York, the euro was down 1.2 percent at
$1.3337 EUR=. It was the biggest one-day move since Feb. 17.

Against the yen, the dollar was 1.8 percent higher at 92.08 yen JPY=
after touching a session high of 92.23 yen.

Michael Woolfolk, a senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New
York, said the U.S. data was taking a back seat to general,
speculative buying of the U.S. dollar after euro-dollar trades had a
big technical breakdown overnight.

The downgrade of Portugal was a good excuse to keep selling euros,
according to Woolfolk.

"This may be short-lived, but I think we could get to 1.30 in euro-
dollar by the end of the week," he said. "A move to 1.25 would
probably require a more negative fundamental story on the euro zone
and Greece in particular, but such a move can't be discounted
completely."

EU SUMMIT

The market will keep a close eye on a European Union summit on
Thursday and Friday after Germany signaled for the first time that it
may accept European financial aid for Greece as a last resort.

But Germany pegged its support to several conditions, including the
need for the International Monetary Fund to make a "substantial
contribution." [ID:nLDE62M130]

"While the newsflow on the situation will ebb and flow, the overall
conclusion is this: at no other time since the advent of the euro has
the possibility for a break-up been this high," said Andrew Busch,
global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago in a note to
clients. "It means risk-adverse selling will continue until the
European Union and IMF can stabilize the debt situation and shift the
narrative to a positive tone."

Investors flocked to the perceived safety of the U.S. currency,
pushing the dollar to its highest since May last year against a basket
of currencies. The dollar index, a calculated measure that tracks the
performance of the greenback versus six other major currencies, was up
1.2 percent at 81.857 .DXY.

The greenback hit a two-week peak against the Swiss franc at 1.0716
CHF=, according to Reuters data. The euro traded flat versus the Swiss
franc at 1.4270 francs EURCHF= after hitting a record low at 1.4233,
according to Reuters data.

Swiss National Bank President Phillip Hildebrand said on Tuesday the
central bank would keep fighting excessive franc appreciation. But
traders expect it to shy away from large-scale intervention as the
economy recovers. [ID:nLDE62M0D9] (Reporting by Nick Olivari and
Vivianne Rodrigues; Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson in New
York and Tamawa Desai in London; Editing by Dan Grebler)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2419483720100324?type=usDollarRpt

Forex: Budget breaks sterling, down 100 pips
Posted 3/24/2010 12:17 PM ET by from FXstreet.com

FXstreet.com (London) - Sterling has shed over 100 pips today as
political worries and concerns over the ability of Britain to reduce
its deficit weighed on the currency. It was a gradual downtrend for
cable, first pushed by a general anti-europe approach to risk taking,
precipitated by Portugals downgraded to AA- status by ratings agency
Fitch today.

Outlook has continued to worsen for the pounds as twin effects of the
budget annoucement weighed. The pre-budget proposal firstly served as
a stark reminder to market players of the deficit problems in Britain,
and secondly showed 'solutions' are perceived as unrealisitc and
inactionable. Pair quotes at 1.4899, well under the 1.5 key support ,
but clear of intraday lows of 1.4875.

http://www.nasdaq.com/newscontent/20100324/forex-budget-breaks-sterling-down-100-pips.aspx?storyid=20100324_ee8519c3-4f1e-4fa5-9437-a595aff56f86_fxstreet.com

Forex - Dollar extends gains vs. Swissy after U.S. goods
data2010-03-24 14:00:32 GMT (Forex Pros)

Forex Pros – The U.S. dollar extended gains versus the Swiss franc on
Wednesday, hitting a 2-week high after official data showed that new
orders for U.S. durable goods rose for the third month running in
February.

USD/CHF surged to 1.0715 during European afternoon trade, its highest
rate since March 11; the pair subsequently consolidated around 1.0687,
advancing 1.06%.

The pair was likely to find resistance at 1.0898, the high of Feb. 19,
and support at 1.0131, the low of Jan. 11.

Earlier in the day, the U.S. Census Bureau said there was a 0.9%
increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods orders in
February, up from a drop of 1% in January. Economists had expected a
rise of only 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the Swissy also bounced after hitting a fresh all-time low
against the euro on Wednesday at 1.4232; EUR/CHF later reached 1.4279,
still gaining 0.03%.

Also Wednesday, Thomas Jordan, the vice chairman of the Swiss National
Bank's governing board, was set to deliver a speech in Bern titled,
"Banking regulation: What went wrong? What will be better?"

USD/CHF USD/CHF
1.0734
Time: Mar 24, 21:27:02 GMT
Members' Sentiments:80% 20%

BullishBearishSummary:
Moving Averages: Buy (12) Sell (0)
Indicators: Buy (7) Sell (0)

S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
1.0717 1.0722 1.0728 1.0733 1.0739 1.0744 1.075

Timeframe: 5 Minutes 10 Minutes Hourly Daily

http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-news/forex---dollar-extends-gains-vs.-swissy-after-u.s.-goods-data-127164

Brokers
HOME / DAILY REPORTS

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- USD Spiking Higher
Global-View.com , Global-View.com
Published 03/24/2010 - 10:07 a.m. EST

USD Spiking Higher

Forex trading has gotten off to an active start on Wednesday as the
EURUSD has broken decisively through the 1.3400 line, and reportedly
taken out DNT options at 1.3400 along the way. We note once again the
focus of the market is being very much driven by big figures.

The EURUSD continues to be weighed down by the Greek debt situation.
Investors today seem very much concerned that Germany and France will
be relying on the IMF to bail out Greece. Someone said that Germany is
standing by with hands in its pockets. For her part, Chancellor Merkel
faces close regional elections in the next two weeks and a Greece
bailout is very unpopular. There also is the question whether aid to
Greece opens the door to assistance for a number of even larger
economies. The Maastricht Treaty, which served as the basis for the
European currency union was supposed to have protected Germany from
what is happening at the present time. That question has major
implications for the political underpinnings of the common currency,
especially for those diversifying permanent forex reserves into the
unit.

Another key development has been word from Nikkei news that Japanese
lifers are expected to start to buy USD to invest in foreign
instruments after the turn of the fiscal year next week. The USDJPY
has tested above the 91.00 level as the markets set up for these
flows. We have noted recently that long USDJPY has been the flavor of
the month for hedge funds.

Flash EZ PMI data and German IFO data were better than expected today.
In North America, Weekly Mortgage statistics are due shortly. Advance
Durable Goods orders are due. Later, new Homes Sales will be released.
Weekly crude figures are due. Later the U.S. Treasury will hold a 5-yr
bond auction.

EUR/USD is sharply weaker. The equity correlation trade has been
working off and on. The ECB has been backing away gradually from
extraordinary policy. Worries about the weaker Eurozone economies have
been a weight off and on.

EUR/CHF is steady. USD/CHF is higher. The SNB continues to signal that
it will continue to prevent excessive CHF gains against the EUR. The
SNB periodically has been intervening in the EURCHF cross.

USD/JPY is higher. EUR/JPY is lower. The Japanese government and BOJ
have reconciling their differences and are pursuing ant-deflationary
policies..

GBP/USD is down and the EUR/GBP is lower. Political uncertainty and
mixed data have been triggering instability in the GBP.

The CAD is weaker. The Bank of Canada has increasingly been turning
less dovish as the economy stabilizes. Canada could be one of the
early major economies to raise interest rates, but not immediately.

The AUD and NZD are lower. Risk trades keep cycling in and out. The
RBA is likely to hike again in 2Q10. The RBNZ has signaled a rate hike
by mid-year.

Gold and Oil are down. Gold, oil, equities and the commodity
currencies are all carry trades. Gold is another anti-dollar.

Far East equity markets closed better. European bourses are up. U.S.
equities are mixed.

The U.S. 10-yr note is 3.71%, +2 bp. Fixed income markets are
vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed
ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government.
Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.

Legal Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure:

Foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives can be very
speculative and may result in losses as well as profits. Foreign
exchange and derivatives trading is not suitable for many members of
the public and only risk capital should be applied. The website does
not take into account special investment goals, the financial
situation or specific requirements of individual users. You should
carefully consider your financial situation and consult your financial
advisors as to the suitability to your situation prior to making any
investment or entering into any transactions.

http://www.forexhound.com/article/Technicals/Daily_Reports/Daily_GVI_Forex_Forex_View_USD_Spiking_Higher/193825

SOURCE: Interbank FX
Mar 24, 2010 16:00 ET

Interbank FX Adds Forex Bridge Product to Private Label OfferingsSALT
LAKE CITY, UT--(Marketwire - March 24, 2010) - Interbank FX,
(www.ibfx.com), a global provider of online off-exchange retail
foreign currency (Forex/FX) trading technology and services, is now
offering an exclusive FX bridge product available to banks, providing
a direct link between our MT4 trading platform and a liquidity
provider. Interbank FX's bridge software is designed to deliver FX
prices and provide trade execution for banks that utilize the
MetaTrader platform offered by MetaQuotes Software Corporation.

Using our elite Order Management System (OMS), Interbank FX equips
banks with integration of liquidity into the MT4 platform and provides
real-time execution. Clients are able to implement the MT4 platform in
a rapid, more robust manner.

"We've developed our unique bridge solution to boost the capabilities
of our MT4 platform," said Todd Crosland, chairman and president of
Interbank FX. "Our skilled technology team has built a custom turn-key
solution, including back office technology and support during market
hours."

Serving more than 35,000 clients from more than 140 countries around
the world, Interbank FX LLC is regulated as a member of the National
Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a
Futures Commission Merchant.

Trading in the off-exchange retail foreign currency market is one of
the riskiest forms of investment available. Full risk disclaimer can
be found here.

PR Contact:
Abigail DeGraff
Interbank FX
Email Contact
(801) 930-6833

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Interbank-FX-Adds-Forex-Bridge-Product-to-Private-Label-Offerings-1137460.htm

"We're in the Money": Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/3bc67593a8a0ac5b#
Madam I'm Adam: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/fbe56c67d373c696#
It's the Economy Stupid: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/a46d86d4a3976279#
BRIC-a-BRAC: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/1d0dab2a874d0f26#
Indian Economic Survey: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/83574501e1c1ee72#
Indian Budget Bonanza: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/40cc05563d71e4a4#
Indian Economic Recovery: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/3dd166259728c65d#
Pranab Mukherjee, my Main Man: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/0ce38c4203700750#
Outsourcing Sorcery: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/topics?start=270&sa=N
Big Bang: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/293ffa6b644467ef/71f2c20e3007bd96?q=The+Big+Bang%3A+Sid+Harth&lnk=ol&

...and I am Sid Harth
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India's National Magazine
From the publishers of THE HINDU
Vol. 15 :: No. 22 :: Oct. 24 - Nov. 06, 1998

COVER STORY

Amartya took his concern for society forward: K. N. Raj

AMARTYA SEN once wrote to me in reply to my response to his book
Poverty and Famine: "I have never had the illusion that I was saying
something that had not been said before. But I did think that I was
saying things that could have saved some lives if they were reflected
in policy. To use Ashok Mitra's phrase, if our great-grandmothers ran
governments, they would have saved many lives indeed."

This is a statement typical of Amartya and in a way is a reflection of
his important contribution. Because, as I told him, I think that most
of the things that welfare economists talk about are those that are
obvious to all of us, especially the common people. In fact, even a
pure philosopher and religious thinker like Sree Narayana Guru, who
achieved a social transformation in Kerala, spoke about the very same
things that welfare economists speak about today: education, health
care facilities, even small-scale industries. But economic theory was
all about how production is organised and so on, and not about how it
affects the welfare of the community or a particular segment of the
community.

Earlier economists such as Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Thomas Robert
Malthus and Karl Marx were indeed concerned about society. However,
after Marx, conservative economists perhaps thought it better to leave
all these problems aside and concentrate on what is called the pure
theory of value and distribution. It had nothing to do with
institutions. This trend was somewhat altered by people like John
Maynard Keynes, because they were concerned about the problem of
unemployment. Amartya took this concern for society forward, and when
speaking about its practical side he always referred to India in
general, and Kerala in particular. In fact, he claimed, and he did
demonstrate, that Kerala had done much better than China in some
fields of development.

Amartya has always been very sensitive about the question of famine,
because he himself grew up at the time of the Bengal famine. He was
struck by the absolute helplessness of the people some of whom having
travelled distances died right outside his house. That experience made
a very deep impression on him. He went on to study the question of
famine and demonstrated that it did not always occur owing to shortage
of food, but it was a question of distribution as well. This is where
questions of welfare come in, obvious questions like "if distribution
of food was proper, why should only some people die?"

Amartya showed how in China, a Communist country much concerned about
distribution, lack of information became the real reason for the
famine of late 1950s. Officials and the media were trained to report
only what was good, and Beijing had no clue that there was a famine.

C. RATHEESH KUMAR

Amartya referred always to the comparisons between the famine in China
and in Bengal. In the latter case, it was really a question of
distribution, black-marketing and so on - events governed by market
principles. Because he saw the terrible effects of famine as a child,
it was natural for him to investigate the Chinese famine as well. He
fished out the truth, which was unwelcome to the Chinese. He showed
that the important determinants of entitlement in that context were
political pressure and administrative force and, negatively, the
authority's ability to suppress information by keeping the stories of
starvation out of the newspapers.

Amartya once wrote to me: "If the government can 'afford' to have
famines, then in a poor country from time to time it will have
famines, since it will not be forced to organise relief and, if
necessary, import food from abroad, and it could continue to carry on
its insensitive policy with quiet dogmatism."

Amartya is not a Marxist. But he is sympathetic to Marxists because
Marxists have been concerned about the poor. Many people like me
practised welfare economics without knowing that it was welfare
economics, because we were anxious that economics should help the
poor. But people who take economic theory literally would say that
this is not our problem. Amartya was very good at theory. He went
along with that. But he very quickly understood the limitations of
that kind of pure theory.

His welfare theory goes into the realm of philosophy. Most economists
are not like that anymore, although the fundamental contribution of
Adam Smith, the founder of modern economics, was the book Theory of
Moral Sentiments. That was, however, forgotten by neo-classical
economists who had nothing to do with moral sentiments. Perhaps, that
reduces their theoretical rigour. How will you make a theory in
morality? You cannot make a model out of morality!

Amartya is a superb teacher; he is one of the best I have known. At
the Delhi School of Economics (DSE), where Amartya joined as a fellow
teacher, his classroom always overflowed with students from other
classes. There was no need for taking attendance and Amartya always
considered it an absolute waste of time. When our department finally
put up a proposal for doing away with the practice of taking
attendance, there was opposition from every other department. However,
the Vice-Chancellor, C.D. Deshmukh, being a civil servant who knew how
to manage rules, allowed our department alone to discontinue the
practice. In Amartya Sen's case, and for all of us in the department,
it made no difference at all.

The DSE was at the peak of its popularity and was one of the strongest
departments in the world when it had Amartya, Jagdish Bhagwati and
Sukhamoy Chakravarty. The DSE celebrates its golden jubilee on
November 14, and if they invite Amartya I am sure he will attract a
huge crowd.

Amartya was very closely linked with the Tagore family. I think it is
because of this factor that despite the difficulties involved in
getting his passport renewed frequently (because he travels a lot) he
remains an Indian citizen. Once, when my wife asked him whether he had
changed his citizenship, he got very angry and said: "Sarasamma, how
dare you ask such a question?" That is why I used to say that he is
one of the few "fanatic" Indians that I know. Amartya is a delightful
person to know. We were neighbours in our DSE days, and our families
also got to know each other very well.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl1522/15220150.htm

Handbook on maximising profits
K. SUBRAMANIAN

The book attempts to ride two horses — economic theory and management
guide

PROFIT POWER ECONOMICS — A New Competitive Strategy for Creating
Sustainable Wealth: Mia de Kuijper, Oxford University Press, 198
Madison Avenue, New York. $ 34.95.

Classical economics of the Adam Smith variety and its latter day
variants had no theory of foreign direct investment (FDI) or the
growth of multi-national corporations (MNCs). In the post-Second World
War years, economists like Raymond Vernon posited “product cycle”
theories which were U.S.-centric.

A radical breakthrough was made in the 1960s when Stephen Hymer
explained FDI as the defining feature of the MNC and related its
advantages vis-À-vis the other forms of foreign operations such as
licensing.

Coasian concept

While Hymer hinted at the idea of ‘internalisation’ of knowledge as
the driver of MNC growth, it was Ronald Coase who provided a
theoretical framework known as “internalisation.” Since then, a rich
body of theoretical literature has been built around the Coasian
concept of “transaction cost.” No wonder, he received the Nobel Prize
for his unique contribution.

Transaction cost is not the cost of a transaction but the cost
inherent in the transaction itself. Contracts fail and cannot be
enforced with all available legal resources. The issue turns critical
when a corporation has to trade in assets that are proprietary — brand
names, secrecy of process and products, managerial skills, and so on.
To avoid costs such as misappropriation and to maximise gains, the
MNCs internalise the assets within their structure.

The field was taken over by Dunning and a number of economists in the
Manchester School. They developed what is called the ‘OLI
Paradigm’ (also known as eclectic) which combines the advantages of
Ownership, Location, and Internationalisation.

Oliver Williamson who received the Nobel Prize this year advanced our
understanding richly. He applies “transaction cost” ideas in different
settings to figure out governance structures in different
circumstances.

MNC theories

The endeavour in current work is to establish that the MNCs create
internal markets and take steps to handle situations where the
external market does not exist or fails. There is no longer reliance
on vertically integrated formations. It takes an array of alliances or
networks as long as there is broader control over the formation as a
whole. They provide for cultural variety across the borders and for
the problems inherent in control from long distances.

The ideas of Mia de Kuijper, author of this book, have to be tested
against these trends in MNC theories. de Kuijper has her feet firmly
in both academia and giant corporations; she was associated with
companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and PepsiCo.

Critical to her exposition is the notion of “profit power,” which is
derived from “power nodes.” She has identified 12 such nodes. In
defining them, there is confusion or mix-up between assets and
strategies. For instance, nodes like brand, secret ingredients, and
focussed and proprietary processes are assets. The others such as
“regulatory protection”, “financial resources”, and “customer base”,
are strategies.

By describing ‘profit power’ as “economic clout — the ability of a
company to hold on to the value it itself has created, as well as to
extract a share of profits from competitors, to create incremental
value for itself and its partners in business relationships, and to
shape the risks it and others will take on” — she engages in
tautology. Profit power flows from holding on to proprietary assets
and internalising them. Indeed, strategies may, and will, change from
time to time.

Transparency

There is vagueness or a mystique attached to her idea of “value
addition” along the chain. It is difficult to envision how, without
the controlling influence or the “invisible hand” from headquarters,
it can be added or sustained.

Another key theme running across the book is the role of
“transparency” and the impact of information technology. There can be
no disagreement that access to information has increased exponentially
and the cost of collection has come down precipitously. Informatics
and outsourcing are indeed integral parts of current corporate
management and strategies. However, it will be naïve to conclude, as
de Kuijper does, that all information is in the public domain and
accessible. Supply of information will continue to be limited and
guarded and those vital for corporate growth will be held back.

de Kuijper says “the contribution of this book to economic theory is
to demonstrate why markets do not work perfectly even when, or rather
especially when, information becomes perfect, and to show how we can
make practical use of this insight.” At another place, she says how it
can be a source of “extraordinary profitability.”

From a theoretical level, the book lowers its bars and turns into a
guide for corporate executives on developing ‘nodes”, adopting rules
to maximise profits, and drawing up action plans to achieve that goal.
The book attempts to ride two horses — economic theory and management
guide. While it fails in the former, it is more successful as a
practitioner’s handbook.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Jan 05, 2010

http://www.hindu.com/br/2010/01/05/stories/2010010550031200.htm

Pages: 22
Size: 2 MB
Price: Rs. 70
Buy Now Simple Economics Part I

Why is diamond costlier than water? Called the diamond water paradox,
this issue is consideredimportant because water is more useful to
mankind than diamonds, and yet the latter is costlier. Since the
terrorist attack on the US, many central banks have cut interest rates
to trigger economic growth. My friend wonders whether a rate cut will
help improve the not-so-good economic growth in India. If these are
the kind of questions you have, this ebook provides the answers.

Pages: 39
Size: 1 MB
Price: Rs. 70
Buy Now Simple Economics Part II

This book is for you if you think economics is like a game of snakes
and ladders, that things happen pretty randomly in the market. You
don't need to be a genius to understand the markets. Economics governs
everything in the markets -- from the simplest of things like why
banks would love to finance a consumer loan rather than anything else
to timing a home loan. We move from the day-to-day things to slightly
heady stuff when we think about stock volatality and why puts are
costlier than calls. Even if investments are not your cup of tea, this
book will bring a lot of good cheer.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/ebooks/eb0013.htm

Volume 17 - Issue 21, Oct. 14 - 27, 2000
India's National Magazine
from the publishers of THE HINDU

BOOKS

Analysing China's performance
C.T. KURIEN

Economics Blue Book of the People's Republic of China, 1999: Analysis
and Forecast, Edited by Sun Wenbin, Michelle H.W. Fong, Geof Wade;
Centre of Asian Studies, University of Hong Kong; 1999.

THE main theme of this, the second volume of the authorised annual
English language publications on the performance of the Chinese
economy, authored by researchers of the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences, other scholars and state officials, is the same as that of
the first-one, "the track alteration" the economy of China has been
undergoing in recent years. The change of track is from a
predominantly state-owned and controlled economy to a socialist market
economy. The process was initiated in 1978 an d gained momentum from
1987.

One of the perceptible achievements of the change has been a sudden
spurt in the rate of growth of the Chinese economy. For several years
since 1978, the growth rate was over 10 per cent per annum, touching
15.2 per cent in 1984 and 14.2 per cent in 1992 . By the middle of the
1990s, the economy had become overheated, leading to a high level of
inflation. A "hard landing" was then attempted which also had some
adverse consequences. In 1996 and 1997 there was a shift to "soft
landing". The application of brakes of both varieties had the intended
result of slowing down the economy. Both 1997 and 1998 have been
described as years of "mild deflation". One issue debated in the
present volume is whether the same will continue in 1999 or whether it
will turn o ut to be a year of recovery.

In 1998, the Chinese economy faced some unanticipated problems, both
internal and external. The internal problems were caused by heavy
floods in the midstream and downstream portions of the Yangtze River,
with an estimated economic loss of 160 billion re nminbi (RMB). (By
way of comparison it may be noted that this amount was almost 85 per
cent of the total value of exports of the year and more than the total
value of imports.) Fortunately, the floods did not reduce the total
grain output which, in fact, slightly exceeded the 1997 figures. But
the production of cotton and tobacco was hit badly. Apart from the
adverse impact on production, the floods showed the vulnerability of
vast expanses of territory and of the country's ecological environment
in gen eral which has a bearing on the lives and livelihoods of the
people.

The external shock was not so visible, but was no less serious. The
financial and currency crisis that dramatically affected South Korea,
Thailand and Indonesia ina 1997 and the continuing stagnation of the
Japanese economy and the depreciation of the Ja panese yen cast a
shadow over China's conditions. In spite of the fall in the value of
most currencies in Asia in relation to the U.S. dollar, a deliberate
decision was made not to devalue the RMB, which in turn affected the
growth of exports. It also le d to the realisation that the growth of
the Chinese economy depends primarily on internal factors - a fact
which may have been overlooked for a while because of all the
excitement of opening up of the economy after decades of self-imposed
isolation.

However, it was no longer possible to go back to old economic policies
as money and markets had changed the functioning of the economy and
the rise in the levels of income of the bulk of the population had
altered patterns of expenditure. With the change in the ownership of
enterprises - from primarily state-owned or collective to increasingly
private-owned - credit and borrowing and interest rate regimes had
come to occupy a prominent role. In an attempt to stimulate domestic
activity, interest rates w ere reduced five times in 1998, but without
leading to the expected results. Changes in fiscal policies have also
been attempted. Several tax reductions - on stamp duties on bond
transactions, tax rebates on textile machinery and shipping - were
effected . Public investment was also stepped up. And, in order to
finance investment, RMB 100 billion worth of treasury bonds were
issued, in part to mobilise savings of the households and channel them
into productive activity.

But a constant refrain in the Blue Book is that the crux of the
economic problem of the Chinese economy currently is that consumer
spending is not going up as much as it should. A variety of
explanations are offered. Personal disposable income in both ur ban
and rural areas increased at a slightly higher rate than in 1997.
However, the growth of personal income fell behind gross domestic
product (GDP) growth rate. It is pointed out that in the early- and
mid-1980s, the general complaint was that "salarie s were eating up
profits" (during the high growth period from 1986 onwards, the annual
average family income growth rate was only 6.3 per cent, considerably
below the growth rate of GDP) and that consequently the proportion of
average personal income to GDP at constant prices fell from 57.5 per
cent in 1986 to 45.5 per cent in 1996. This is recognised as a failure
of the market economy to guarantee that labour income will
automatically grow with GDP growth. A recommendation made is that
salaries of thos e who work in the areas of education, science, art,
health and government should be increased and that it could be done
through appropriate fiscal adjustment.

Three other reasons are put forward as explanations for low consumer
expenditure. First, consumer spending was suppressed by the
uncertainties about future income owing to the possibility of
unemployment and the expected increase in the future expenses o n
education, medical care and retirement. In other words, Chinese public
expenditure in the social sectors is not adequate enough to maintain
rising private expenditure - indeed a significant finding that should
have a bearing on policies in the evolving socialist market economy.
Second, Chinese consumers have passed the stage where basic consumer
necessities could be met through supply managements alone. That is,
the Chinese economy has moved out of a sellers' market into a buyers'
market. Producers ha ve to respect consumer preferences for the kinds
of goods that their higher incomes permit to buy. Third, in 1997
registered unemployment rate was 3.1 per cent of the labour force. But
when the number of people waiting to be employed was also taken into
account, the rate went up to 8 to 9 per cent.

As already noted, in 1998 the Chinese economy was affected by external
factors as well. The poor performance of the Japanese economy and the
fall in the external value of many Asian countries had an adverse
impact on China's exports. However, imports als o got reduced and so
the year ended with a trade surplus as well as a higher foreign
exchange reserve. The Asian financial crisis also had some impact on
foreign direct investment in China. Investment from Asian countries -
Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Phil ippines, Thailand, Singapore, South
Korea and others - which constituted about 75 per cent of the total in
1997 came down to a little above 70 per cent and declined in absolute
terms also. At the same time, investment from Europe and the U.S.
increased.

A brief reference to Hong Kong may be made in concluding this review
mainly because of the fact that on July 1, 1997 the British handed
over Hong Kong to China and it became the Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region based on the "one country, two (econ omic)
systems" principle. It is unfortunate that this transfer happened at a
time when the Asian financial crisis was setting in. The growth rate
of Hong Kong suffered as a consequence. Particularly affected were
activities in finance, real estate, retai l trade and hotels.
Unemployment increased and problems related to it became very visible
as there was also an increase of new immigrants from the Mainland. The
banking sector and the stock market came under severe strain. However,
the administration suc ceeded in keeping matters under control.

The Blue Book is meant for outsiders who are interested in the Chinese
economy and it certainly serves a useful purpose. As an interested
user I would make some comments about its contents and format. One
would see more statistical information in the vol ume. Statistical
information is available throughout, but the appendix containing
consolidated statistics constitutes only seven pages out of a total of
over 500. It will be helpful to have critical evaluation of official
statistics also. In the 50 artic les that form the substance of the
volume there is a great deal of repetition. In a compilation of this
kind some repetition is unavoidable. But it should be possible, in the
future issues, to reduce it considerably.

I must also add that Chinese scholars who have authored the articles
seem to suffer from want of appropriate theoretical tools to analyse
the Chinese economy in its present phase. They have relied almost
exclusively, though not uncritically on Western ma cro economic theory
and its analytical corpus. However, macro economic aggregates are
premised on micro economics, particularly the nature and objectives of
the basic production units of a capitalist economy. Since China
differs significantly from Wester n economies in this regard, it is
necessary to use theories and tools suitable for the country's
conditions. This is not an easy task. But if the Chinese scholars
succeed in adapting Marxist theory to suit their conditions, it must
be possible for them t o evolve economic theories and analytical tools
to deal with the kind of market socialism they are trying to put into
practice.

Two articles on the Chinese economy, based on the first Economics Blue
Book and other writings were published in Frontline, September 11 and
September 25, 1998.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl1721/17210760.htm

Volume 19 - Issue 04, Feb.16 - Mar. 1, 2002
India's National Magazine
from the publishers of THE HINDU

BOOKS

Economics and values
V. SURJIT
R. MOHAN

The Values of Economics - An Aristotelian Perspective by Irene van
Staveren; Eburon Publishers, 2001; pages 242, £18.99.

IN her book The Values of Economics - An Aristotelian Perspective,
Irene van Staveren discusses how the values of freedom, justice and
care have been kept beyond the pale of modern economics and examines
related issues incisively. She won the Gunnar Myrdal Prize for 2000
for her dissertation "Caring for economics - An Aristotelian
perspective", from which this book evolved. Staveren is a lecturer in
Labour Market Economics of Developing Countries at the Institute of
Social Studies at The Hague.

The study of economics in universities is dominated, by a large
extent, by the neoclassical or orthodox approach, which rests on
axioms about consumer preferences and on the assumption of rationality
of consumer behaviour. The actor is constructed as the 'rational
economic man' or Homo Economicus. Economics is introduced as a subject
that deals with the price system, rational utility maximising
individuals who are price takers, their demand curves, the profit
maximising firms' supply curves, indifference maps, constrained
maximisation behaviour, and the Pareto optimal situation in which no
one can be made better off without making someone else worse off,
which is learnt by the calculus method, more recently by using set
theory. Quotations from the Fable of bees: Or Private Vices and Public
Virtues by Bernard Mandeville (1670-1730) and from Adam Smith -
regarding each one's maximisation of self-interest leading to maximum
social good - are often adverted to.

The concept of Utils though can be argued as being analogous to
weight, volume and temperature, its measurement in numbers being
nothing but the whim of the author. In this book the author looks at
the missing ethical capabilities of the rational economic man and at
what has been lost in the evolution of the dominant strand of
economics. She conducts an elaborate inquiry into this and offers a
reasoned critique. The book encourages students of economics to look
beyond the world of axioms, constrained maximisations and
optimisations.

The author lays emphasis on the value domains of Freedom, Justice and
Care, how closely they are interwoven and how an excess or deficiency
in one can result in an inability to feed on one another and how an
excess of one can create problems. The preface of the book starts with
the passage, "Somewhere along the route of modernisation economics has
lost its connection to the most basic characteristics of human
behaviour. It has come to disregard human motives, emotions,
evaluation and the different forms of interaction through which human
actions in economic life provide for themselves and for others. With
this neglect the discipline not only lost much of its charm but also
became less persuasive."

The author narrates the case of two victims who suffered brain damage
in accidents but were later cured. One of them, Phineas Gage, who was
25 years old at the time of the accident in 1848, was a foreman. A
1.10-metre-long iron bar weighing 6 kg pierced his skull from the left
cheek, passed through the front of his brain and the top of his head,
and landed 30 metres away. After treatment for two months, he was
cured, though he lost one eye.

However, Gage's personality underwent a metamorphosis. The polite,
precise and committed person became rude, blasphemous, stubborn and
capricious. He lost his job, broke up his family and ended up as a
vagabond. He was incapable of planning ahead or earning a living,
though he had not lost his rational capabilities or his ability to
read and talk, remember and process information and to direct his
hands to do a task. The author characterises this person as a real-
life clone of the rational economic man. The deficiency of the
rational economic man is that he interacts with society without being
influenced by it and he interacts only through an ideal market in
which prices form the only means of communication. He is depicted as
having a utility function and his foremost aim is to maximise it.

Values are not ends in themselves. According to the author,
commitment, emotional attachment, deliberation and human interaction
all express human values, and to some extent all these values are
shared and contested among individuals in a society. The problem
conceived by the author is how to address the role of such values in
economics without, on the one hand, moving too far away from economics
into sociology and without, on the other hand, reducing values to
axioms that exclude any meaningful rationality, as in the case of
neoclassical economics. Neoclassical economics is not value neutral.
It takes value freedom for granted. She cites passages from Free to
Choose, authored by Milton Friedman, and Rose Friedman, to bring home
this point. The commitment to liberty in neoclassical economics is
expressed as free individual, free choice and free exchange. The
defence of liberty is based on a free exchange that leads to efficient
markets.

Justice is described as a natural counter-value to freedom. Excessive
pursuit of freedom will have negative consequences for others. For
example, a pursuit of profit that results in the exploitation of
workers, the unequal distribution of gains from international trade
and so on. The author also cites from John Rawls' A Theory of Justice
(1971). Can the poor suffer for the cause of a Pareto superior utility
gain, the aggregate of which may benefit only or mainly the rich? Thus
free exchange will not occur without a substantive form of justice.

CARE is another value that the author says modern economists excluded
from the sphere of the subject. "Species activity that includes
everything that we do to maintain, continue and repair our world so
that we can live in that as well as possible" (Joan Tronto, 1993). In
economics the relevance of caring commitments were recognised by
Amartya Sen (1981), Jon Elser (1983) and Robert Frank (1988). Feminist
economists have also made contributions on caring labour.

The author cites an interesting example of Sen's illustration of Ali,
an immigrant shopkeeper in London who has a friend called Dona. Dona
gets information about some racists planning to attack Ali and does
not know how to warn him. Complaining to the police is not of any use
as they dismiss Dona's story as a product of paranoid fantasy. Dona
knows that Ali keeps Charles, a business contact informed about his
movements. The only way she can warn Ali is by breaking into Charles'
room and leaving a message about the planned attack. Under utilitarian
thinking and justice reasoning there is no reason for breaking into
Charles' room. Charles is a self-centered egoist, who will be more
disturbed by his room being broken into than by Ali getting beaten up.
From a justice perspective, there is no justification as Ali's life is
not in danger, only his health and dignity. From a utilitarian
perspective Charles' utility will decrease and Ali's further utility
loss as a consequence of the bashing will be less than the utility
gains by ten racist attackers. Does the very idea appear preposterous?
If so, you value care as an end in itself. Sen encourages Dona to
follow her "deeply held and resilient conviction that she must save
Ali". Care is one's responsibility toward the community that one feels
part of. Without responsibility, negative external effects will
rapidly restrain the economic process, says the author.

Staveren says that Adam Smith's contribution to the domain of justice
and care has been undervalued. Smith, widely known as the author of
Wealth of Nations, had also authored The Moral Sentiments. He
recognised the two objects of the economy: "first to provide a
plentiful revenue or subsistence for the people, or more properly to
enable them to provide such a revenue or subsistence for themselves;
and secondly, to supply the state or commonwealth with a revenue
sufficient for public services" (Adam Smith, 1776, Book IV;
Introduction: 428).

Smith also recognised the role of the care economy at home in moulding
the labour force of the future. He recognised that labour, like
capital, is a produced factor. His writing quoted below evidences
Smith's contribution to the domain of justice: "No society can surely
be flourishing and happy, of which the greater part of the members are
poor and miserable. It is but equity, besides, that they who feed,
cloath and lodge the whole body of people, should have such a share of
the produce of their own labour as to be themselves tolerably well
fed, cloathed and lodged." (Smith 1776, Book I. VIII: 96).

The author examines the views of John Stuart Mill, Plato and Karl Marx
in his writing. Margaret Reid's pioneering contribution to home
economics is also discussed. The idea of care economy was developed
from the experiences of women, their role as consumers and as unpaid
labour at home. Her idea of a 'fair market' from a consumers' point of
view has been dealt with by the author in Consumers and Market (1942).
Another researcher on the home economy of care introduced by the
author is Charlotte Perkins Gilman who wrote her books at the end of
the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century - The Home
(1903) and Women and Economics (1899).

Gilman argued that the unpaid care labour of women at home is not
compensated for by the income earned by their husbands. She described
care as a basic human sphere and considers the valuing of the sympathy
and care of a mother in market terms as unthinkable. Staveren
considers this view more realistic than Pigou's famous statement that
gross domestic product (GDP) decreases when a man marries his
housekeeper. To generate a hypotheses on the behaviour of economic
actors and each value domain, the author employed unconventional
research methods - at least in economics, field surveys and focus
groups. She also discusses the extended utility function espoused by
Garry Becker and McCloskey's methods for a via media between
individual and social approach.

The values of freedom, justice and care cannot be aggregated into one
value, as they are incommensurable. They cannot be made to occupy a
hierarchy of importance. They cannot be subordinated to utility.
Staveren hopes that the outline of the empirical framework can guide
further theoretical enquiry into care and other values in economics.

In dealing with care economics she deals with the issue of
privatisation of health-care. For more than a decade or so, hard-
boiled votaries of privatisation and some half-boiled experts have
considered privatisation a magic wand that can exorcise the ghost of
inefficiency that they attribute to the public sector. The importance
of cost recovery fees, including in health care, is insisted upon in
revival packages. In the health sector, privatisation results in
making healthcare more expensive and this can in turn result in a
lower demand for privatised healthcare. This case of a downward
sloping demand curve can hardly be found objectionable by
neoclassicals. This reduced demand will cause an increase in
malnutrition and health problems, particularly for women and children.
This has the effect of undermining the productivity of future
generations in the labour market.

Cuts in health budgets, which aim to peg fiscal deficit at a fixed per
cent of GDP, whatever the cost, and the draining of capable doctors
from the public to the private sector, will cause longer waiting lists
and queues in clinics. People who cannot afford expensive healthcare
need more care at home. This will mean that women have to divert more
time to care at home and less to other activities. This is a typical
case of the substitution effect described in economics textbooks. The
argument of efficiency is actually an argument of false efficiency,
causing intergenerational loss of productivity and intragenerational
loss of output. This is a classic case of privatisation adversely
affecting productivity and output. It is interesting to note how the
author uses concepts of traditional economics to show how its
conclusion is unworkable. The magician who is recommended for
exorcising public sector inefficiency is chased away using his own
magic wand.

The author also points out how the oft-criticised 'inefficient state
organised distributive measures' have in fact aided the growth of GDP
in newly industrialising South-East Asian countries. Studies by
believers of neoclassical paradigms of growth have shown that a fair
distribution of income has in fact stimulated GDP growth. (Robert Baro
1991; Nancy Birdstall, David Ross and Richard Sabort 1995; United
Nations Development Programme 1995, 1996, 1997; Sen 1998). Other
things being equal, economies with lower inequalities at the start of
1960-85 grew faster (Birdstall, Ross and Sabort 1995; 50).

THE author identifies the domain of values - freedom, justice and
care. When one is deficient it cannot adequately perform a role in the
economy. "A deficient value domain is not able to feed into the other
value domains to diminish the respective deficiencies." Each domain
needs a threshold to feed the other. She argues that in the former
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the domain of freedom was
deficient, which led to substantial inefficiencies in the economy. In
post-1990s Russia, the domain of justice is deficient. Likewise, the
excess of any one domain is also problematic. Excesses in the domain
of justice lead to bureaucratic over-regulation and oppression. Virtue
is considered a mean between deficiency and excess. This develops
through the rational behaviour of actors in each domain using all
their ethical capabilities to further each domain's value, and
therefore involves a 'balancing act' between them.

One most likely answer to the criticism of the rational economic man
with missing ethical capabilities is that only in theory is the
abstraction and ruling out of external influences permissible. The
author does not disagree with this but adds, by way of caution, that
the abstraction should reflect, although it is abstract in form, real,
healthy human behaviour if it intends to explain the economic
behaviour of human beings. Kaushik Basu is of the opinion that even
though he has criticised conventional economics and positive political
economy, he does not mean to detract from the many achievements of
modern economics. The discipline's rigour and comprehensiveness have
undoubtedly contributed to our understanding of the marketplace. A
regrettable consequence is that it has spilled over to domains where
we have little reason to be confident. Not only the individual self-
interest but institutions also matter (Kaushik Basu, Prelude to
Political Economy).

The book gives a good exposure to the basic idea of the value domains
of freedom, justice and care and the limitations of looking at
economics from the neoclassical point of view. It discusses writers
and their ideas, which get little importance in the economics
curriculum of the universities today.

V. Surjit and R. Mohan are research scholars at the Centre for
Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl1904/19040760.htm

Volume 19 - Issue 15, July 20 - August 02, 2002
India's National Magazine
from the publishers of THE HINDU

BOOKS

In defence of development economics
C.T. KURIEN
Development Economics - Nature and Significance by Syed Nawab Haider
Naqvi; Sage Publications, New Delhi, 2002; pages 269, Rs.450.

A QUICK survey of "development economics" in the past half a century
will be somewhat as follows. In the 1950s it emerged as a specialised
field of studies in universities in different parts of the world,
particularly in the United States. Research and publications
flourished and the field became quite prestigious in the 1960s, partly
as an extension of the Keynesian emphasis on the role of the state in
the economic sphere and partly as a revival of the classical
economists' concern with long-term growth. The resurgence of neo-
classical economics in the 1970s and the claim that rational economic
calculation by individuals is the basis of all economic activity
started to challenge the need for a separate discipline of development
economics. This in turn led in the 1980s to some defence of
development economics, but also to many obituaries. In the "state vs
market" debate of the 1990s, development economics came to be
identified with the state, and neo-classical economics as the
theoretical champion of the "free market" appeared to have scored a
technical knock-out of the already emaciated development economics.

It is against this background that Syed Naqvi presents his new defence
of development economics. The author had his training in economics in
the well-known American universities of Princeton, Yale and Harvard,
where he must have had a thorough exposure to neo-classical economics
and its imperialistic claims of universality.

He then returned to his own country, Pakistan, taught in the Quaid-I-
Azam University in Islamabad, served as Director of the Pakistan
Institute of Development Economics and was for some time a member of
the Pakistan Planning Commission. Anyone who is trained in neo-
classical economics but deals with practical problems of development,
discovers the emptiness, if not the perversion, that lies hidden
behind the rigour and elegance of neo-classical economics. Some make
desperate attempts to defend and justify neo-classical economics.
Others expose its pseudo-universality and insist that a different
approach is necessary to understand development problems and seek
remedies for them.

Naqvi belongs to the second group. Therefore, his defence of
development economics as a separate discipline is a reasoned but
unfortunately repetitive critique of neo-classical economics. The
work, thus, is primarily academic. I recommend it to students of
economics and development economics, particularly those at the post-
graduate level, because apart from being a logical critique of neo-
classical economics, it is also an excellent survey of the literature
available, mainly on development economics. Non-academic readers with
practical interest in development problems may find the prolific
reference to the literature, a dozen and more per page at times,
somewhat distracting.

However, the author's defence of development economics (against the
onslaught of neo-classical economics) can be salvaged from the jargon
of the professional. On page 190 there is a clear statement of what
development economics is: "The basic aim of development economics, as
described in this book, is to explain the nature and mechanics of the
development process as it has unfolded in the developing countries so
far, and to change this state for the better by increasing per capita
incomes, reducing distributional inequities, lowering the incidence of
poverty and improving human capabilities to convert increment in per
capita income into some meaningful metric of personal well-
being" (emphases as in the original).

Neo-classical economists may not oppose this statement of what
development economics aims to achieve, but they may find it difficult
to accept these social objectives as a statement of the purpose of a
science. Their statement of the nature of the science of neo-classical
economics is that it is an attempt to understand an economy as the
maximisation of a representative agent's utility over an infinite
future and rules of behaviour compatible with this objective derived
logically from a set of stated axioms.

Two very different perspectives are represented here. The matter could
have been left to be debated by scholars in their secluded cloisters.
But the problem is that the two perspectives lead to divergent, indeed
contradictory, policy prescriptions. Thus, one of the implications of
neo-classical economics is said to be that the most rational policy is
to leave all economic issues to be settled by the logic and laws of
the markets, leading to the "leave it to the market" dictum.
Development economics, on the other hand, assigns a significant role
to the state in matters of economic policy. In fact, it will go
further and argue that some of the key development objectives, such as
eradication of poverty, reduction of inequalities and universalisation
of education and health care, cannot be achieved without the active
intervention of the state.

How are these differences to be tackled? Naqvi devotes a good part of
the book to attempting to resolve the "state vs market" debate. There
has been a proliferation of literature on this topic and the author
provides a critical review of it. The only way to settle the debate,
if it can be settled at all, is to insist that the exercise of
authority and involvement in mutually beneficial transactions are both
common to, and basic ingredients of, any human community and that,
therefore, there is no way to choose between them.

Hence the policy issue is how the authority of the state and the
operations of the market are to be combined and that there cannot be
an a priori answer to that question because that combination depends
on the community concerned (a family, a firm, a country) and will
change over time. If so, it is not very helpful, and not very
satisfactory, to reduce the problem to that of the coexistence of the
public and private sectors and then argue that the right solution is
to go in for a "mixed economy". Even granting that all functioning
economies (as opposed to conceptual economies) are "mixed economies",
there is the need to indicate the nature of the mixture: it is
contextual and will vary over time. Also, the basic issue is not to
decide on how two independent sectors are to be optimally combined,
but how to coordinate decisions in the context of a plurality of
overlapping agencies.

It is doubtful whether the nature and significance of development
economics as a separate field of study can be established through an
argument with neo-classical economics in terms of specifics such as
the "state vs market" theme, although it is central to an appreciation
of the differences between the two fields.

There are two fundamental differences between neo-classical economics
and development economics. The first is that for neo-classical
economics the primary units of analysis are all homogeneous
individuals, in the sense that all individuals are maximisers of
utility or satisfaction though they differ in terms of their tastes
and preferences. The grouping of these individuals - into owners,
producers and consumers, for instance - is a mere analytical device
meant to establish certain propositions.

Development economics, on the other hand, deals with real-life human
beings living in historically contexted groups, societies and nations.
Secondly, and arising from the first, the problematic of development
economics consists of real-life problems of production of goods and
services within noticeable institutional arrangements, with equally
traceable arrangements that decide how what is produced will be shared
among members of society. Development economics diagnoses social
problems, but is also committed to treating them with some clear
notions about the nature of a healthy social order. If it is a
science, it is similar to medical or health science. Neo-classical
economics, on the other hand, claims to be a "pure" science, deriving
its propositions or theorems logically from a set of stated premises
whose validity or realism is not subject to empirical verification. It
is a constructed theoretical system.

Scoring debating points over neo-classical economics, therefore, is
hardly the way to establish the credentials of development economics.
As a policy-oriented discipline, the task of development economics is
to get on with the job, meticulously diagnosing the nature of the
problems it has chosen to deal with and suggesting remedies to achieve
authentic human development within just and participatory social
arrangements. To the extent that neo-classical economics (or any other
"school" of economics) can help in this process, use it; if not, just
dump it.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl1915/19150710.htm

Volume 21 - Issue 11, May 22 - Jun 04, 2004
India's National Magazine
from the publishers of THE HINDU

BOOKS

Teaching a relevant economics
VENKATESH ATHREYA

Globalisation and the Developing Economies: Theory and Evidence edited
by Aditya Bhattacharjea and Sugat Marjit; Manohar Publishers and
Distributors, New Delhi, 2004; pages 234, Rs.475.

A DIFFICULTY that serious teachers of economics in colleges and
universities face is the absence of books that deal cogently with
problems specific to developing countries, and in a manner that is
ideally accessible to the post-graduate student or at least to the
teacher. The Anglo-Saxon neoclassical tradition is dominant in the
leading universities of India and many other developing countries, a
fact not unrelated to the economic as well as ideological hegemony of
the metropolitan countries over their erstwhile colonies in the post-
Second World War period. While mainstream neoclassical economics
provides a useful tool kit for certain microeconomic problems of
limited interest, it is singularly unhelpful in dealing with macro
economic issues. In fact, neoclassical economics implicitly denies the
possibility of a macroeconomics, which is not deducible from axiomatic
microeconomic foundations. It tends to view many problems of great
complexity and contemporary interest through the methodological prism
of individualism and does not grapple with structures or processes at
meso- or macro-levels in an economy. It claims to be universally
applicable and shows scant regard for differences in the nature of
economic institutions and their implications for answers to economic
questions. But as Professor Amiya Kumar Bagchi points out in his
foreword to the book under review: "... [E]conomics as a discipline
within the broad area of human sciences is necessarily context-
specific." In a hugely unequal world, where the majority of countries
are ex-colonies deformed by colonial and continuing neocolonial
exploitation, the context becomes all the more important in the case
of development economics. The book is a very innovative effort to
address the problem of developing material for use in teaching
economics at the postgraduate level in a developing country context.
It is the outcome of a conference held in December 1999 at the Centre
for Studies in Social Sciences in Kolkata with the support of the
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation
(UNESCO).

The book consists of nine essays, each dealing with a distinct issue,
but there is an overall unity to the book in the sense that most
essays attempt to grapple with contemporary problems of great
relevance and complexity using theoretical-empirical frameworks that
go well beyond conventional neoclassical economics. The first three
essays are country-specific studies dealing respectively with the
disastrous economic transition in Russia, the South Korean experience
and Malaysia's handling of the East Asian crisis as it affected that
country. The next four essays deal with different but important
aspects of the contemporary international economy and its implications
for developing economies, addressing critically in the process the
mainstream understanding of the relevant issues. The penultimate essay
deals with the crucial issues of malnutrition and poverty in India
over the last three decades. The final essay focusses on the socio-
economic aspects of the issue of reproduction and the family. Most of
the essays are carefully constructed, with an evident effort at
pedagogical clarity as well.

IN an elaborate and insightful essay, the veteran Russia specialist
Professor Nirmal Chandra raises the question whether Russia will
survive the International Monetary Fund (IMF) medicine. Tracing the
key indicators of the Russian economy through the 1990s, Chandra shows
that the Russian economy has been devastated by the neoliberal shock
therapy forced on it by the IMF and implemented by a venal political
leadership. The Russian economy has been in a state of depression for
quite some time. There has been massive capital flight from Russia.
The country's political rulers are in league with financial oligarchs
and criminals and are dependent on the Western powers, especially the
United States, for survival. Finally, Russia has experienced a
demographic catastrophe with a sharp decline in birth rates, a steep
increase in death rates and a sizeable absolute decline in population.
Chandra draws attention to the fact that the interests of the Russian
mafia-oligarchs and Western governments were often intertwined.
Supporting a joint statement issued in June 2000 by a group of
distinguished economists from both the U.S. and Russia, which
essentially amounts to a repudiation of the reforms imposed by the IMF
in Russia at the behest of the Western powers and in line with its own
flawed understanding, Chandra raises a question. If the illegal
privatisations are annulled, as implicitly suggested by the joint
statement, most firms will either fall into the hands of foreign
investors who alone will have the wherewithal to buy the firms at
appropriate prices, or in the likely event of strong popular
opposition to such a move on both economic and nationalist grounds,
the firms will revert back to state ownership. Will the U.S.
countenance such a possibility? Chandra, citing Nobel laureate Joseph
Stiglitz, believes that the U.S. will not, and concludes: "Either
Russia must forsake its dependence on the IMF and the U.S. treasury,
or go on suffering indefinitely."

In a fascinating account of the evolution of South Korea's economic
policies over the decades of its emergence as an economic powerhouse,
Chul Gyue Yoo brings out the fact that South Korea's rapid
industrialisation occurred during the period when financial policy was
subordinate to and run as an accessory to industrial policy. This has
obvious implications for other developing countries. A policy regime
that subordinates the interests of industry and agriculture, and of
productive investment more generally, to the dictates of finance
cannot deliver sustained economic growth over a long period. As Yoo
says, such a policy as the one followed in South Korea meant that "...
the interests of the financial class were repressed... based on the
view that the financial rentier class was... a parasitic group... "
The much maligned "financial repression" is not such a bad thing after
all. Unfortunately for South Korea, monetarist thinking, imposed by
the IMF, displaced the earlier focus on material economic growth and
put "... the interest of the financial sector before that of the
industrial sector... "

Yoo draws attention to the fact that globalisation and neoliberal
ideology, which in his view derive their influence less from anonymous
market forces and more from political intervention through
institutions like the U.S. government and international organisations,
try to promote homogenisation among national capitalist economies. He
makes the important point that "... the effects of the neoliberal
regime on individual countries, despite strong pressure for
convergence towards one model of capitalism, will always be mediated
by the distinctive institutions and practices specific to each
country".

The essay by Eu Chye Tan takes a rather more sanguine view of
speculation in forex markets than would be warranted by global
experience, but in the specific context of Malaysia since 1998. Tan's
view that speculation will help stability in forex markets and that
economic agents will learn to hedge against exchange rate risk is
unconvincing. In contrast, in a brief but pithy paper, Professor Amit
Bhaduri shows that speculation can be destabilising under reasonable
assumptions about the real world. He argues against a binary divide
between control and deregulation, taking the position that exchange
rate deregulation can be combined with greater regulation of short-
term portfolio capital flows and by adopting a cautious policy towards
foreign borrowing. A point that needs to be made here is that formal
mathematical models only give you what you have put into them in the
first place. In most cases, they are at best aids in stating elegantly
what is plausible, but at the risk of concealing assumptions about the
real world in a maze of algebra, as the late Maurice Dobb had warned
more than 60 years ago in a brilliant essay entitled "Some tendencies
in modern economic theory".

ADITYA BHATTCHARJEA'S essay is easily one of the best in this
collection. In a careful and rigorous reading of the more recent
literature on the relationship between increasing returns to scale,
trade and development that makes an effort to go beyond the dominant
neoclassical paradigm, the author demonstrates that the new literature
continues to be hampered by its roots in the same paradigm. However,
the author also notes that they "... capture some of the important
stylised facts of development and of production subject to IRS
(increasing returns to scale) that cannot be dealt with satisfactorily
in traditional versions trade theory".

In an essay on wages, labour mobility and international migration,
Sugata Marjit and Saibal Kar take an unwarranted dig at the student
movement when they assert: "Often sound economic judgment has to take
a back seat because of the shameless hypocrisy of the so-called
egalitarian student movement. Higher education invariably accommodates
students coming from more privileged segments of society and they
always protest vehemently if the subsidy is reduced even by a bit."
The presumption that higher education must not be subsidised is not
validated by the fact that the services of a section of those
receiving subsidised higher education are lost to a country because of
emigration. What such a situation calls for is a more nuanced approach
to the issue than simple and unargued railing against subsidy, and in
the bargain, innuendo against an undefined "so-called egalitarian
student movement". From the standpoint of scientific and technological
self-reliance, the case for subsidising higher education remains
valid. The modalities of delivering subsidy effectively to those most
in need of it do certainly need to be explored.

Prabirjit Sarkar's essay on export diversification and market shares
notes that in spite of the increasing importance of manufactured
products in the exports of the countries of the South to the countries
of the North in the period since the Second World War, the commodity
terms of trade (CTT) of the South has continued to deteriorate. As
Sarkar points out, diversification of export structures has helped
some developing countries in market penetration in the sense that the
more diversified a country's export structure is, the more is its
share in world exports. However, the rate of deterioration in its CTT
does not decline even if its exports are more diversified. What this
means, in layman's terms, is that the purchasing power of the exports
of developing countries and their relative gains from trade are being
constantly reduced. What also needs to be borne in mind is that the
intra-firm trade of multinational corporations dominates world trade
and they use the technique of transfer pricing to siphon out surpluses
from Third World countries bypassing extant regulations in the
process.

Professor R. Radhakrishna and his co-authors have examined the issues
of nutritional intake, nutritional status and changing food
preferences in India over the last three decades. While their focus on
changing food and more generally consumer preferences tends to
obfuscate matters a bit, their overall findings are clear and
sobering. They conclude that India has "... failed to make much dent
in reducing widespread malnutrition. As many as half of the preschool
children suffer from malnutrition and close to half the adult
population suffer from chronic energy deficiency in rural areas".
Moreover, "The bottom 30 per cent of the rural population had a per
capita intake of only 1,670 kcal per day, compared to the nutritional
requirement of 2,200 kcal per day". The authors note that "Economic
growth, left to itself, may not have a dramatic impact on the
nutritional situation in the near future... ", a point which does not
figure in the official celebrations of `India Shining'.

The final essay in the book is by Professor Nirmala Banerjee on the
socio-economic analysis of reproduction and the family. It is an
insightful and fascinating survey of the relevant literature.

While the editors' claim that "... getting familiar with the materials
presented here will not cause any undue burden on the students of the
Third World... " is perhaps overly optimistic and ambitious, the book
will be an excellent aid to serious teachers of economics at the post-
graduate level.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2111/stories/20040604000507300.htm

Our collective future
CHINMAYA R. GHAREKHAN

Chris Patten’s take on the big questions about the global condition
and the bumpy road ahead

WHAT NEXT? — Surviving the Twenty-first Century: Chris Patten; Allen
Lane, an imprint of Penguin Books, 11, Community Centre, Panchsheel
Enclave, New Delhi-110017. Rs.795.

Anyone who has read Chris Patten’s Not Quite the Diplomat, a highly
readable memoir, would look forward to reading his What Next? It is a
more serious work in which the author analyses, in simple and witty
language, major issues confronting humankind in the 21st century and
outlines answers to deal with them. When everything that can be said
about the challenges of the day has already been stated in numerous
books, it is not surprising that What Next does not contain too many
original thoughts. What is distinguishing about this book is the ease
and facility with which the author explains complex issues in simple
yet serious tone.

Challenges

What Next covers practically the entire gamut of issues, from
proliferation to illicit trade in small arms, drugs to diseases and
epidemics, water shortage to energy crunch, terrorism to climate
change. One thing comes through repeatedly and clearly. Patten is a
committed liberal internationalist. He has enormous sympathy and
empathy for developing countries. If ever there would be a world
government, the author would be a frontrunner for the job of Minister-
in-charge of development. He is merciless in his criticism of the
“hopeless and dangerous unilateralism of the first years of the Bush
Administration,” which he admits, was a major provocation for his
decision to write the book. He is very critical of the Anglo-American
intervention in Iraq which, he says, “has made the world less safe and
the effort to contain terrorism more onerous.”

Climate change

The most serious challenge, he argues at length and with conviction,
is global warming and climate change, an issue that cuts to the heart
of how we manage our lives, our households, our societies. “The damage
we are doing to our environment is perhaps the only one which is truly
new in nature and in scale, the only remotely existential challenge
that we face.” He is ‘moderately optimistic’ about solving the climate
problem, despite the American government’s obstinate unwillingness to
come to terms with the crisis. He is somewhat less demanding in his
prescription than many others. He seems to believe that a call to go
back to the 1990 level is not realistic. He says it is too late now to
avoid a temperature rise of 2º C over the pre-industrial levels. “If
we are lucky, we may be able to put the ceiling there; if we are
unlucky, we will find ourselves in the danger zone beyond 3º C. So the
task is to ensure that greenhouse emissions peak within 15 years and
fall to half their present levels by the middle of the century.” In
other words, he believes that it is not too late to start acting now.
In the context of the climate change problem, the author quotes what
Mahatma Gandhi said as far back as in 1928: “God forbid that India
should ever take to industrialism after the manner of the West. If an
entire nation of 300 million took to similar economic exploitation, it
would strip the world bare like locusts.” He calls upon the E.U. to
demonstrate global leadership on climate change and adds that at the
heart of any effective global agreement will be a settlement between
the U.S. and China.

On terrorism

In an excellent chapter on terrorism entitled “Skies of Flame”, the
author makes a distinction between “the war on terror” and “the war
against terrorists”. He believes that the war on terror is essentially
unwinnable. “Anytime you declare victory, you can find that your
crowing is the precursor to this or that extremist strapping bombs to
his or her body.” He cautions the readers against misinterpreting his
view on unwinnability of the war on terror against leading to the
conclusion that the battle against terrorists too is unwinnable. His
intellectual integrity leads the author to admit that the world has
made some progress in the battle against terrorists on President
Bush’s watch despite his strategy but because of some of his tactics.
A settlement of the Palestinian problem, he is convinced, “would do
more to hack through the roots of terrorism in the Middle East than
anything else.” He emphasises the generally recognised but unheeded
need to reject the confrontational view of Islam.

Quoting Amartya Sen, the author believes that the only way to “win”
the war on terror is to remember our humanism, the foundation of any
global civil society. Democracies, he says, should live by their
principles in fighting terrorism. However, he comes to what for him is
obviously an unpleasant conclusion, namely, that “terrorism is
something that is very unlikely to be expunged from our lives.”

Rising China

Patten is a strong supporter of the U.N. despite its inadequacies and
imperfections. He is highly sceptical of the proposed Alliance of
Democracies. The importance he gives to China in the 21st century
order of things comes through repeatedly but he is not ready to accord
the status of a superpower to China. “If the Chinese are to become a
superpower, they are going to have to square a lot of circles, solve a
lot of problems, in the coming century.” He has a balanced approach
towards non-proliferation issues. As for Iran, he has this to say: “If
there was ever a measure of the degree to which America’s problems in
the world are self-inflicted, Iran is it.”

The one problem with the book is its size, its verbosity. What has
been expressed in 450 pages could easily have been compressed in about
350, without sacrificing any of its substance. All in all, however,
What Next? is a one volume reference book, which libraries as well as
individual scholars would find extremely useful for the study of the
major challenges facing humankind today and in the years ahead.

(The reviewer, Chinmaya R.Gharekhan, is the author of “The Horseshoe
Table: An Inside View of the UN Security Council”.)

http://www.hindu.com/br/2008/12/16/stories/2008121651181300.htm

Book Review

Contemporary globalisation
VENKATESH ATHREYA

GLOBALIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT: Sunanda Sen; National Book Trust,
India, 5 Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, Phase II, New Delhi-110070.
Rs. 40.

This book is by a distinguished teacher and researcher of economics
who has specialised in international trade and finance. It explains
the actual implications of contemporary globalisation (as opposed to
the claims made on its behalf by neoliberal theology) for developing
countries and for the various sections of the people in these
countries. In the process, it also provides a critique of several
claims of mainstream economic theory concerning the efficiency
properties of liberalised markets and their efficacious implications
for economic growth. It argues that globalisation as is currently
occurring results in highly inequitable and unsustainable growth.

Features

The book consists of five chapters. The first chapter seeks to
identify the key, distinctive features of contemporary globalisation.
The second chapter deals with the changes in the world order and
assertion of hegemony by the rich countries through globalisation from
the 1970s. The end of the Second World War saw the weakening of the
imperial powers, the rise of a socialist camp and a wave of
decolonisation, and for a brief while, the onward march of capitalist
globalisation appeared to slow down. Between 1950 and the early 1970s,
several developing countries, especially in Asia and Latin America,
sought to pursue a relatively independent path of national
development, taking advantage of the changed global situation. From
the early 1970s, however, the powerful club of rich countries began to
reassert their hegemony. The rise to dominance of finance capital by
the end of the 1970s consolidated the forces of globalisation.
Hegemonic nations (G7) and multinational institutions (the IMF, World
Bank and the WTO) exercise authority over developing countries,
dictating economic policies. There is also an emerging cosy
relationship between the elite of the developing countries and the
rich country elite.

Critique

In the third chapter, the author provides a critique of neoclassical
economics in relation to the alleged virtues of the free market,
contrasting these claims with the rather different results on the
ground. This chapter also brings out the widely varying performance of
a number of developing countries pursuing the path of liberalisation
and globalisation, with only a very few registering even respectable
rates of economic growth. It goes into the various agreements under
WTO and how they have hurt the developing countries while helping the
advanced ones. It then deals with the process of financial opening up
in India and shows how it has led to financial exclusion, hurting
agriculture and, small and medium industries. In the fourth chapter,
the question of technological change, its impact on different sections
of the people, and issues of control over technology and the process
of generation of new knowledge and techniques are discussed. The new
post-TRIPS (Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights) dispensation
makes technological catching-up well nigh impossible for the
developing countries. In the fifth and final chapter, the author goes
into the relationship between globalisation and development. It argues
that globalisation may deliver growth (though not always and
everywhere) but fails to deliver development. The link between growth
and development only works when growth is also “people-centred.”
Noting that in an economy open to unregulated flows of capital, the
state policy is primarily directed to preventing capital flight, the
author draws attention to the resultant “democracy deficit.”

Agents of change

While seeking to identify forces that can change things for the
better, this chapter privileges a heterogeneous collection of NGOs,
social activists and social movements as agents of social change, but
omits to note the crucial role played by the Left both in fighting
neoliberal policies, raising people’s consciousness in the process,
and its record of impressive land reforms which should be part of any
alternative to the neoliberal regime. The book will be useful to
students of economics as an introduction to issues of globalisation
and development. It will also be of use to the non-specialist reader
in providing a critical viewpoint on globalisation. The exposition
sometimes gets cluttered by the author’s constant engagement with
neoclassical economics as part of her attempt to refute it. This has
made the book a little less readable at some points in the text. To
provide an exposition of the complex economic and political issues
associated with the process of globalisation that is both
comprehensive and simple is of course a huge challenge, and the author
deserves our warm appreciation for an excellent effort. The publisher
is also to be commended.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008

http://www.hindu.com/br/2008/12/16/stories/2008121651171300.htm

Book Review

Banking in a developing economy
S. ARUNAJATESAN

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION IN A LESS DEVELOPED ECONOMY — The History of
the United Bank of India: Indrajit Mallick, Sugata Marjit; Sage
Publications India Pvt. Ltd., B 1/I-1, Mohan Cooperative Industrial
Area, Mathura Road, New Delhi-110044. Rs. 795.

There is a popular saying that the history of the State Bank of India
is the history of banking in India. But after reading this book it is
evident that the history of all the old and well-run banks, more
particularly the public sector banks, reflects the history of banking
in India. The authors while focusing on the United Bank of India have
analysed a number of critical issues relevant to development of
banking in the country. The issues range from absence of banking
regulations act and the central bank as the regulator for a fairly
long period in the early days, nationalisation of banks, priority
sector lending, high level of non-performing assets, delay in judicial
process, deposit insurance, capital adequacy norms, importance of
prudent banking, frequent waiver of loan repayment, militant unions,
technology adoption, human resource policy and autonomy. Perhaps each
issue warrants detailed study and documentation. The authors have done
an excellent job in crystallising the issues in clear terms so that
the scholars and experts in banking may work further on those matters.

Case study

The origin of the United Bank of India is traced to Comila Banking
Corporation, established by N.C. Dutta in 1914. His son also a lawyer
of repute joined him. Both of them shaped the bank and guided its
destiny. Many more small banks were merged with Comila Bank and it was
named as the United Bank of India. The bank rapidly grew in size,
spread its activities. It was one among the top 14 banks in India and
was therefore nationalised in 1969. The bank which started as a town
bank became a regional bank and ultimately a national bank with a
dominant presence in the eastern and north-eastern region. Government
ownership conferred certain privileges and advantages, but also caused
several constraints. Before 1969 the role and functions of the United
Bank of India, like many other sound private sector banks were
strictly pure banking, customer service and profit, but the post-
nationalisation period was complex, frustrating and painful.

Wide-ranging issues

The authors in their wisdom and experience have expressed the views on
several issues. On the matter of capital adequacy norms, they are of
the view that capital at 9 per cent or 10 per cent is of no guarantee
for safety, if the risk management and lending norms of the bank are
sloppy. Solvency depends more on sound policy, careful investment and
lending with conservative approach. In fact, the recent crisis in the
U.S. proved that the culprit is sub-prime lending and not inadequate
capital. On priority sector lending, the authors’ views are that
social banking is incompatible with commercial banking and
dysfunctional. Social welfare and support to weaker sections are
important but banks are not the appropriate instruments for this
purpose.

The abnormal size of non-performing assets (NPA) at 7 per cent of the
aggregate loans was the result of wrong credit policy and programme
either enforced by the government or caused by temptation to make
super profit. Even today NPA as absolute figure is rising although as
a percentage to total advance has come down from seven per cent to one
per cent. Further real position is distorted by purchase and sale of
NPAs between banks and asset reconstruction companies and debt
restructuring. The problem has worsened by the inordinate delay in
judicial process in dealing with bank cases. The authors have also
discussed the issues relating to staff union, staff productivity and
bank merger. The book is certainly a valuable addition to the
literature on banking and timely.

http://www.hindu.com/br/2008/12/16/stories/2008121651161300.htm

Book Review

Migration trade-offs
SURESH NAMBATH

Impact of India’s rising economy on the Indian diaspora in East Asian
countries

RISING INDIA AND INDIAN COMMUNITIES IN EAST ASIA: Edited by K.
Kesavapany, A. Mani and P. Ramasamy; ISEAS Publishing, Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies, 30, Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Pasir Panjang,
Singapore-119614.

Does India’s economic growth and widening influence hold implications
for Indian communities in other countries? For long, people loosely
identified as of Indian origin who had settled in other countries,
especially East Asian nations, were thought of as being better off
than the Indians in India. Those who managed to leave India also
escaped from its poverty. However, this long-held perception is now
changing. The boom in the Indian economy and the political and social
pressures on Indian communities in the East Asian region in recent
years seem to have more than closed the gap in economic prosperity
between Indians in India and Indian communities in East Asia.

Case of Malaysia

Rising India and Indian Communities in East Asia, a collection of
papers presented at a conference on the same subject organised by the
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, seeks to reveal the
relationship between the rise of India and the lives of Indians in
East Asia. The spread of India’s influence beyond the South Asian
region opens up new avenues for Indian communities in other countries.
There is greater expectation that India will be able to pressure the
smaller East Asian nations to look into the grievances of the Indian
communities. As the book puts it, “Politically, India might only exert
a mild influence. However, economically and especially in the
development of the software industry, India is expected to have a
great impact.” Also, Indian communities that earlier viewed any
assertion of the Indian identity as problematic in the countries of
their residence now see advantages in seeking to re-establish an
affinity with their “ancestral” land.

Malaysia, a country where political representation is organised on the
basis of ethnicity, lends itself as a fit subject for study in the
book. Home to a considerable Indian population, mostly Tamils who came
as indentured labour during the British colonial period, Malaysia has
witnessed a forceful assertion of Indian and Hindu identity in the
last few years under the leadership of Hindraf or Hindu Rights Action
Force. Unlike the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), which has formal
representation in the ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional or
National Front headed by the United Malay National Organization
(UMNO), Hindraf is an oppositional group that is outside the official
political framework of Malaysia.

Even the political rivals of MIC, the Indian Progressive Front and the
People’s Progressive Party, have been co-opted into the political
framework of Malaysia and are now supportive of the ruling coalition.
As P. Ramasamy argues in “Politics of Indian Representation in
Malaysia”, the MIC’s “basic methodology of representation is the
cultivation of personal friendship with UMNO leaders at the national
and state levels so that some minor concessions could be derived for
the community.” A large number of Malaysian Indians thus feel the need
for a political formation that would not compromise with the
establishment and would speak for their rights from a position of
strength.

Singapore

In Singapore, however, the situation is very different. Singapore’s
population policy encourages skilled Indians to settle in Singapore.
“The local Indian population should benefit from this influx through
assimilation in the longer term,” according to G. Shantakumar and
Pundarik Mukhopadhaya. The stress on immigration of professionals
could also explain why the Indians lag in terms of sex ratios, with
Singapore showing more males beyond age fifty. However, the Indians
still have a long way to go to match the attainment of the Chinese
population, who enjoyed a historical advantage in capital
accumulation.

But globalisation of the Singapore economy as well as the Indian
economy meant that Indian skills and capital could move easily to the
city-state. Whether this could also end the market discrimination
against Indian labour and reverse a situation in which qualifications
from the Indian sub-continent are less-recognised is still moot,
according to the authors of the paper on “Demographics, Incomes and
Developmental Issues in Singapore”.

No assimilation

In Thailand and the Philippines, the Indian migration was mostly from
the Punjab and the Sindh. As non-Muslims from these areas were
extremely conscious of their ethnicity vis-À-vis Islam, they preserved
their religious identity as Hindus and Sikhs after migration by
maintaining close kinship ties, points out A. Mani. But Tamils in
Thailand have been assimilated into Thai society through inter-ethnic
marriage as they were small in number and felt no compulsion to
zealously protect their Indian or Hindu identity.

In Japan, the migration of Indians is more recent. Many Indians came
in from the 1990s onwards to work in the IT industry and stayed on.
The migration is also on account of globalisation and liberalisation
in India and the involvement of Japanese companies in the Indian
economy. Indian workers in Japanese companies were sent to Japan for
training. Japan being a developed economy, the situation of the Indian
migrants is not comparable to that in other countries of East Asia.

Overall, Indians in East Asia did not undergo any assimilation process
in the countries of the adoption. The book seeks to explain this by
arguing that the requirement to assimilate was not strong on Indians
because Indians, “unlike the Chinese,” were not considered a threat in
the countries of their adoption. Whether a rising India will change
the situation is difficult to foretell.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008

http://www.hindu.com/br/2008/12/16/stories/2008121651231400.htm

Working out a secure future

Contemporary Macro-Economics
Ed by Amitava Bose et al

Macro-Economic Stabilization and Adjustment
By M.J. Manohar Rao and Raj Nallari

*Publishers: Oxford University Press, New Delhi (for both)

*Price: Rs 595.

*Price: Rs 650.

SINCE the 1930s macro-economic thinking has assumed greater
significance with the advent of Keynesian Revolution. In the 1980s the
financial programming of the IMF and the financial requirements
approach of the World Bank have further added new dimension al
dynamics in the macro-economic spectrum. The aggregates of National
Income Accounting, National Production Matrix and National Employment
Generation are pointers in indexing macro-economic growth in all types
of economies.

Both books under review are complementary in their theoretical focus
and supplementary in their practical policy initiatives. A combined
reading of the books will enrich the understanding of macro-economics
even to general readers.

Contemporary Macro-economics is a compendium of 10 well-researched
papers dedicated to Professor Mahir Kanti Rakshi by his students in
Presidency College, Kolkota. The papers are conveniently classified
into five sections. National Income, Development, D ynamics, Finance
and Institutions focussing on the contemporary issues in macro-
economic theory.

Pradip Maiti's paper clarifies the concept of real GDP as used in the
national income accounting literature and shows how it can be obtained
from outputs of individual producing units. Maiti also builds up a
theoretical structure of flow of funds relatio ns for the broad
sectors of the Indian economy and estimates the various aggregates in
these relations for a selected year.

In recent years, there has been a renewal of interest in the concept
of Net National Product (NNP) as a measure of welfare. Would the
equality between the value of current investment and the present value
of future welfare hold in this simplified world?

In their joint paper, Swapan Dasgupta and Tapan Mitra point out that
the equality is indeed satisfied if the competitive programme is also
an optional programme, or if an additional condition is met. The
importance of additional condition arises from the well-known fact
that when the future is open ended, not all competitive programmes are
optimal. A competitive programme, for which NNP is an exact measure of
current and future welfare, does lead to sustainable development if
and only if the value of in vestment, net of the depreciation of non-
renewable resources, is never negative.

Amitava Krishna Dutt's paper, attempts to compare and synthesise
models which show how the agricultural sector can constrain industrial
growth in less-developed countries (LDCS) through demand and wage-
goods constraints. Sugata Marjit et al explore the i mplications of
free trade for income distribution, especially for the relative wage
between skilled and unskilled workers in the context of a less-
developed country. The study shows that skilled/unskilled wage-gap is
likely to worsen with capital mobilit y.

Macro-economic theory has been characterised by a resurgence of
interest in the theory of economic growth. Dipankar Dasgupta attempts
to summarise some of the developments in the area of New Growth Theory
(NGT) in terms of an elementary supply-demand fra mework, where the
object of demand as well as supply is the rate of growth itself
Dynamic Optimisation Models are currently in use in a number of
different areas in economics, to address a wide variety of issues.

The relationship between the Dynamic Optimisation Model and the
(optimal) policy function associated with it is central to such
applications. Tapin Mitra's paper presents a selective survey of
results relevant to understanding this relationship. While Su dipto
Dasgupta paper focuses on how financing decisions affect product
markets, Bhaswar Moitra's paper discusses some basic issues related to
sovereign debt.

One of the most exciting recent developments in economics is the
explicit study of institutions. In its broadest sense, an institution
may be regarded as a contextual device within which social and
economic relationships are framed. Gautam Bose's paper r epresents a
selective study of different institutional arrangements that
facilitate intermediation of trading processes. He shows that if both
intermediation and private meetings are permitted, those agents with
greater potential gains from trade will ta ke the intermediation
route, while the remaining agents will wait for private trades.

The theory of implementation is concerned with the extent to which
social goals can be achieved or implemented through decentralised
decision-making procedures. In his paper Bhaskar Dutta surveys a class
of conditions, known as `preference reversal condi tions', that can be
used as litmus tests for determining whether a given social choice
correspondence is implementable or not. Naturally, these conditions
vary with the equilibrium concept that is used to describe agent
behaviour. Dutta provides a unifie d treatment of both the conditions
themselves, and the way in which they vary with the equilibrium
concept.

The book is refreshing in its methodological approach and rewarding in
its practical revelations. A useful guide to the students, researchers
and scholars in economic studies.

M.J. Manohar Rao and Raj Nallari's treatise is a technical
introduction to the theory and design of stabilisation and growth-
oriented structural adjustment programmes. This book attempts to
bridge the analytical framework gap between macro-economics and
development economics by adapting the existing theory of short-run
macro-economic stabilisation to the particular conditions and
structural characteristics of developing economies. The contents of
book are presented in five parts-macro-economic framework and
policies, analytical framework for stabilisation and adjustment,
monetary, fiscal and external sector adjustments, redistribution,
adjustment and growth and lessons of adjustment experience.

The first part focuses on macro-economic relationship and policies.
The second chapter discusses certain basic accounting concepts
revolving around three key macro-economic relationships and between
four key sectors (the government private, monetary and external
sectors. The third chapter discusses macro-economic adjustment from a
policy perspective. It focuses on monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate
policies in developing countries.

The fourth chapter discusses the Polak model against the background of
the theory it was partly responsible for creating, viz. the monetary
approach to the balance of payments. The following chapter initially
discusses the accounting framework underlying growth and resource gap
models, and the next chapter relates the analytical approaches of the
Fund and the Bank and integrates growth into the basic monetary model,
thereby highlighting the joint determination of inflation and growth.

The third part of the book integrates monetary, fiscal, and external
sector adjustments into the basic inflation/growth processes
underlying the merged Bank-Fund model. Chapter 7 discusses the concept
of financial repression and monetary sector reform wh ich is followed
by an overview of the specific features of interest rate policy. The
underlying implications of fiscal arithmetic and provides empirical
evidence regarding monetary accommodation and the analytical framework
for formulating an external de bt strategy in terms of a sustainable
debt-output ratio and the role of the exchange rate in the analysis
are also discussed in this part.

The fourth part of the book highlights areas of development macro-
economics that have been particularly active in recent years. The
concept of `adjustment with a human face' with special reference to
the relationship between poverty, income distribution, and growth is
highlighted in one of the chapters. Further discussions centre around
the several alternative approaches to adjustment with growth.

The fifth and final part of the book dwells on the lessons of the
adjustment experience, in particular, the impacts of financial and
economic policies on growth. The basic characteristics of financial
crises, with special reference to the types, origins, identification,
and signals of such crises, as also the issues involved in
liberalisation with stabilisation with special reference to the
optimal sequencing of reforms and the high-inflation trap are the
topics analysed.

Finally, the lessons of experience are briefly summarised and the book
with a few brief injunctions to policy makers in the form of specific
economic policy guidelines.

Having analysed rigorously the genesis of the East Asian contagious
financial crisis, the authors have presented a theoretical model of
financial crisis. Against the backdrop of high financial
vulnerability, one of the most fundamental propositions of op en-
economy macro-economics is that it is theoretically impossible for the
government to simultaneously aim at stable exchange rates, financial
openness, and monetary independence, the so-called `impossible
trinity'-- and therefore the sustainability of a ny instrument/target
mix under increasing capital mobility requires continuous policy co-
ordination.

The empirical results of the Indian economy indicate that a currency
crisis, in the form of a speculative attack, can be prevented only if
there exists substantial policy flexibility which enables the
authorities to continuously respond and adjust to ext ernal shocks.
The main derivative of this study is that macro-economic stability,
which is often synonymous with reduced inflation and improvements in
the BOP, is essential for long-run growth. Therefore, more than
anything else, macro-economic policies should be designed to stabilise
real output in the face of erogenous disturbances.

While liberalisation is essential in the medium term the sequencing of
economic reforms is critical in the short-run. In effect, the domestic
sector has to be liberalised first. Long-run economic growth is a very
gradual process and needs sustained stabi lisation, a competitive real
exchange rate to promote exports, a high rate of savings, and adequate
supply-side policies to increase the productivity of investment.

Institutional developments, with special reference to the central bank
and the banking system financial and capital markets, as well as
regulatory and supervisory agencies, are crucial for sustained long-
run growth. Regardless of whatever other sacrifice s the economy is
compelled to make in the process of adjustment, there should be no
reductions in government expenditures on education. Above all, macro-
economic policies can explain only a certain part of a country's
economic performance. A well-planned stabilisation and growth-oriented
structural adjustment programme will provide a solid foundation for
the continuing success of government policies.

The contents of the book create new waves of theoretical insights and
policy perspectives in macro-economic stabilisation and adjustment
dynamics. A good referral to macro economists, research pilgrims, open
economy champions and development policy pundi ts.

P. Jegadish Gandhi

The reviewer is Honorary Director, Vellore Institute of Development
Studies.

Financial Daily
from THE HINDU group of publications
Monday, July 09, 2001

http://www.hinduonnet.com/businessline/2001/07/09/stories/120909aa.htm

Volume 26 - Issue 15 :: Jul. 18-31, 2009
INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE
from the publishers of THE HINDU

BOOKS

New look at growth
ASHISH KOTHARI

The author challenges set notions of development and stimulates new
ideas on how humanity can achieve sustainable living.

THIS book could not have been better timed, coming as it does in the
midst of the worst economic crisis the world has faced for decades.
Debal Deb, a researcher at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies in
Kolkata, has written an incisive analysis of what is fundamentally
wrong with the global economic system. He also presents a framework
for an alternative path of human welfare that does not imperil the
very earth that sustains us, and is available to all people. He
combines various disciplines and perspectives in an impressive
synthesis.

Deb’s basic contention is that the ideology of development, narrowly
defined in terms of material wealth to be achieved through industrial
growth, has become an unquestioned fetish. It is what Deb calls
“developmentality”, a mindset “which equates affluence with
development, measures development in terms of GNP [gross national
product] growth, and accepts development to be the destiny of
civilisation”.

The first half of the book is dedicated to an illuminating analysis of
the origins, evolution and impacts of developmentality. This includes
various dubious biological and sociological justifications for
subjugating indigenous peoples and poor countries, leading to the
colonisation of the globe by a few European nations. As capitalism
spread rapidly into the colonies, subsistence societies were overtaken
by the monetised economy, common resource management by private
landholdings, and diverse local knowledge systems by the Western
“rationalist” one. All this (and more) culminated in the ideology of
developmentality, with human progress being defined narrowly in terms
of indicators such as GNP or per capita income (PCI), promoted
vigorously by agencies such as the World Bank and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).

The past few decades of development have witnessed environmental
destruction never before seen in human history, with the collapse of
many ecosystems, a global extinction crisis, and climate change
threatening to engulf all of us. Simultaneously, several hundred
million people have remained in abject poverty and deprivation (nearly
40 per cent of South Asians are below the poverty line; one in three
Asians do not have access to safe drinking water and one in two to
sanitation). Inequalities have grown to obscene levels, exposing the
hollowness of the “trickle-down” theory.

The New Economics Foundation (NEF) estimates that between 1990 and
2001 “for every $100 worth of growth in the world’s per person income,
just $0.60 found its target and contributed to reducing poverty below
the $1-a-day line”. Communities or countries that have resisted or
hesitated to adopt the “development” ideology have been cajoled,
bribed, or threatened into conforming. Foreign aid and trade have been
used to increase the stronghold and profits of multinational
companies, mostly under the clever guise of helping poor nations in
their quest to “develop”.

So successful has been the brainwashing that decision-makers in
virtually all countries now aspire to the same economic goals (GNP,
etc., measured in percentage growth rates), hardly stopping to assess
whether this actually improves the welfare, happiness and satisfaction
of all people. This is true not only of capitalist economies but also
of socialist and communist countries where industrialisation has
wrought havoc on the environment and people.

The author debunks, in detail, the myths of classical (so-called
“neoliberal”) economic theory that provide the intellectual
justification for developmentality. These include the notion that
every “rational” individual acts only out of self-interest, the blind
faith in technology being the answer to all problems, and the dogma
that nature and natural resources are only to be valued for their
utility or monetary worth.

ASHOKE CHAKRABARTY

In Bhubaneswar. Pro-Market policies and unbridled consumerism allow
the rich to plunder the earth, says the author.

Deb also takes on the popular notions of population growth and poverty
being at the root of the ecological and social crises, showing that it
is government policies of free market and industrialisation, unbridled
consumerism and power inequalities that allow the rich to continue
plundering the earth. For instance, an average citizen of the United
States “consumes 50 times more steel, 56 times more energy, 170 times
more synthetic rubber and newsprint, 250 times more motor fuel, and
300 times more plastic than the average Indian citizen”.

Though the book provides examples from various countries, Deb provides
more detailed case studies from India. There is a sharp critique of
the Green Revolution from the 1960s to the present, which has been
uncritically credited with the significant rise in foodgrain
production in India and has on the other hand led to problems with
declining soil productivity, water pollution and shortages, loss of
biodiversity, and displacement of small farmers.

In the second half of the book, Deb turns to the search for
alternatives. He critiques a number of solutions offered by proponents
of what he calls “weak sustainability”, such as environmental
economists who attempt to build in ecological costs, for instance, of
pollution, into economic planning and budgeting. He contends that even
proponents of sustainable development, such as the famous Brundtland
Report Our Common Future, have only a limited vision, for they do not
see the impossibility of ever-increasing economic growth.

For more fundamental alternatives (“strong sustainability”), Deb draws
on some of Marx’s writings on the rift between people and nature, on a
number of other writers and activists who have questioned the
domination of the Western world view, and on the continuing traditions
and ethics of indigenous peoples or “ecosystem communities” such as
the Bishnois or the women of the Chipko movement. In more recent
times, there have been new insights provided by “sustainability
science” and ecological studies, the revolutionary zero-growth models
of ecological economics, and a greater understanding of the
contemporary relevance of traditional knowledge systems and common
resource management regimes. Underlying all this is also a call for a
new politics, with more participatory forms of democracy that do not
accept either centralised state systems or the dictates of the “free
market”.

It is this heady combination that Deb terms “inclusive freedom and
sustainability”, the subtitle of his book. Leading the movement
towards such alternatives is a range of civil society organisations,
mass movements and radical individuals in various fields. But there
are also formidable challenges: the powerful “bureaucrat-politician-
academic” clique that defines and imposes conventional development
ideology, the close links of private corporates with scientific bodies
and even many non-governmental organisations (NGOs), the failure of
the traditional Left to fathom and respond to the ecological crisis, a
media that continues to brainwash the public with visions of
consumerist and industrial utopias, and an educational system that
promotes conformity. Nevertheless, says Deb, it is possible to move
towards a saner future through ecological literacy and ethics, civic
democracy, inclusive freedom, and the revival of the commons.

One of the book’s strongest points is its wide-ranging use of
literature and thoughts from economics, ecology, sociology, political
science, philosophy and indigenous knowledge systems. It is,
therefore, surprising that he does not use Gandhian thought at all.
Gandhi’s challenge to development is as powerful as anyone else’s.
Moreover, his vision of an alternative world and his undoubted
contribution to many of the people’s movements that Deb justifiably
posits as important forces towards a saner world, are impossible to
ignore. Yet Gandhi figures only in passing in the context of Nehru’s
post-Independence push to industrialisation.

Deb also, surprisingly, omits reference to recent global attempts at
understanding humanity’s impact, including the seminal Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment ( www.millenniumassessment.org) and the exciting
Ecological Footprint network ( www.footprintnetwork.org). Another
relatively minor criticism is that the book would have been much more
readable if it was shorter and the language simpler. There is
considerable repetitiveness, for example, of the concepts and
criticisms of developmentality. The language used is often difficult
and jargonish (One example: “Environmentalism rejects the primacy of
Eurocentric cultural positivism, but opposes the post-modernist
escapism into non-committal pluralism.”). I do hope Deb will write a
simpler, shorter version, for his work challenges set notions and
stimulates new ideas on how humanity can achieve sustainable living,
and therefore deserves a much wider audience. •

Ashish Kothari is with Kalpavriksh – Environmental Action Group.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2615/stories/20090731261507300.htm

Volume 20 - Issue 09, April 26 - May 09, 2003
India's National Magazine
from the publishers of THE HINDU

BOOKS

India's informal economy
KARIN KAPADIA

India Working: Essays on Society and Economy by Barbara Harriss-White;
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003; pages 316, Rs.950.

BARBARA HARRISS-WHITE has been producing remarkable work for two
decades in the varied field of development issues. Much of this work
has drawn on insights from her fieldwork in northern Tamil Nadu and
she uses these insights to illuminate important questions of wide
relevance. In this valuable and provocative book she engages with a
range of debates, drawing the reader into an intense argument right
through the book's 300 pages. I found myself disagreeing with several
of her arguments, but I learnt a great deal from each one of them.

The book is not an easy read. It is densely written and its heavily
footnoted text draws on a vast and diverse array of academic research.
However, it repays close attention from the reader. Harriss-White
tries to do something that few development economists try to do - she
attempts to set the economic data on India within its socio-political
contexts. This is a task that mainstream economists do not even think
of attempting since they are not willing to acknowledge that economic
reality is very different from the abstract models they prefer to
study. For this reason, Harriss-White's book deserves applause and
wide readership.

The book's focus is on India's informal economy, what Harriss-White
calls "the economy of the India of the 88 per cent". This term is used
since more than 74 per cent of the population is rural and another 14
per cent lives in towns with a population below 200,000. The remaining
12 per cent lives in metropolitan cities (page 1). The informal
economy generates 90.3 per cent of all livelihoods in India and 60 per
cent of the country's net domestic product (page 5). Her study of the
informal economy leads us, as well, into the country's black economy,
with which the informal economy overlaps at several points.

Harriss-White's central argument in the book is that "the social
structures of accumulation" in India create "the matrix through which
accumulation and distribution take place" (page 13). She argues: "In
the India of the 88 per cent, it is clear that a range of non-State
social structures, and the ideas and cultural practices attached to
them, are even more crucial for accumulation than they are in
industrial societies. Six, in particular, are explored in this book:
the structure of the workforce, social classes, gender, religion,
caste and space" (page 15). Thus her book has ambitious goals - she
tells us that it seeks "to describe and analyse the economy of India's
88 per cent" by examining the socio-cultural and political elements of
"the social structures of accumulation". It also hopes "to contribute,
however modestly, to the analysis of contemporary capitalism" in India
(page 15).

Harriss-White draws primarily on data on small-town India, arguing
that this is where one can best examine "the non-corporate (economy)
in which 88 per cent of Indians live and work" (page 239). To
delineate the micro-economies of small-town India where the
"intermediate classes", who are her main focus, reside, she draws on
her own field research from northern Tamil Nadu.

Harriss-White's research on the local economy, seen within its
cultural matrices, is insightful. This "field economics", focussed on
the business classes in their daily dealings with each other, with
their workforces and with the local state, reveals the ways in which
the local economy is very tightly - though "informally" - controlled
and regulated by these mercantile business classes. Her detailed
documentation of the business methods of these "intermediate classes",
shows the ways, mainly hidden but sometimes brazen, by which the
state's control is neutralised and rendered harmless, competition is
eliminated, and new entrants kept out of the market.

Harriss-White argues that throughout India small-town and rural
economies are dominated by these intermediate classes, which are
constituted by "a loose coalition of the small-scale capitalist class,
agrarian and local agribusiness elites, and local state
officials" (page 241). The interests of the intermediate classes are
significantly different from those of corporate capital. Harris-White
argues that the former "directly appropriate the returns to rents of
all kinds and are able to do this through oligopolistic collusion in
markets and through structures of regulation that remain hardly
touched by liberalisation. They connive with local officials to secure
the protection of rents and of the state resources they capture. They
seek state subsidies, but more importantly they secure beneficial
concessions by influencing policy in its implementation.... Their
evasion of tax is the equivalent of a major subsidy to [their]
mercantile accumulation, while depriving the state of capacity and
legitimacy" (page 241).

Harriss-White argues that it is these intermediate classes that are,
in fact, the dominant segment in India's economy. She defends this
thesis by arguing that the informal economy, in which the intermediate
classes are hegemonic, "accounts for two-thirds of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP)" and that "at least half of the informal economy is
`black'" (page 246). This is why she characterises the informal
economy as "anti-social" - it is regulated by the intermediate classes
and ruled by their narrow values based on self-interest.

Harriss-White further argues that the size of the intermediate classes
is growing and a "new wave of small capital, based on primary
accumulation, is reinforcing and expanding the informal and black
economy, intensifying the casualisation of labour and transferring the
risks of unstable livelihoods to the workforce" (page 246). The
severely exploited labour force is radically subordinated and "labour
is regulated through the social structures of gender, religion and
caste, and of local markets" (page 241). Her study of the local
hegemony of the intermediate classes leads her to conclude: "Fraud and
tax evasion are part and parcel of Indian capitalism.... The bulk of
the economy is beyond the direct control of the State... . Countering
this literally anti-social economy calls for the emergence of a more
robust and active culture of collective accountability" (page 247).

It is impossible to do justice to the richness and complexity of this
book in a short review. Among the many interesting issues that it
raises are arguments relating to the impact of India's religious
pluralism on the structure of its economy and the question of whether
capitalism in India is proving to be the "social solvent" that it was
widely expected to be (page 245). A major contribution of this book is
its discussion of the debates on "industrial clusters" (or "industrial
districts") in India. Here Harriss-White argues that the overly
positive view of "industrial clusters" and "flexible specialisation"
in India, that currently prevails, is quite mistaken. Her arguments
here are well taken. She points out that industrial clusters are a
common, not exceptional, form of development in India. Low technology
is usual in these industrial districts. Contrary to what cluster
theory enthusiasts, whose numbers are growing, claim, most industrial
clusters do not have the "developmentally positive potential" (page
208) shown by highly exceptional clusters like Bangalore and Tirupur.
In fact, most industrial clusters in India excel in the "super-
exploitation" of workers, especially women and children (page 222).

Importantly - and this is a fact that cluster enthusiasts often choose
to ignore in studied silence - a lot of field research shows that
entrepreneurs demonstrate "a complete disregard for anything other
than private profit". This, coupled with "the inadequate and negligent
enforcement of effluent standards" by the co-opted state, has resulted
in vast tracts of agricultural land being rendered unfit for
agricultural use, while large sections of local populations have been
deprived of their sources of drinking water, because these are now
toxic (page 237). In Tamil Nadu such disasters have occurred in the
Palar Valley (due to tanneries) and in Tirupur (due to the hosiery
industry). The state has remained indifferent or slow and extremely
reluctant to act against the entrepreneurial class (page 237), with
whom it is in close collusion. The result is that the burden of these
"negative externalities", created by highly profitable (and much
admired) industries, falls, crushingly, on those least able to bear
this environmental disaster - the virtually disenfranchised rural
poor.

The book's postscript turns to the contemporary political context.
Entitled, "Postscript: proto-fascist politics and the economy", it
examines "the key elements of fascism" and "the class origins of
fascism" in order "to evaluate the prospects of fascist currents in
India" (page 253). While this is helpful, even more interesting is
Harriss-White's argument, made at several points in her main text,
that, in the final analysis, it is likely to be economic reasons that
lie behind Hindu communal attacks on Muslims, even though these are
camouflaged and covered up in political rhetoric about "religion" and
"Hindutva". This argument is extremely persuasive, especially given
the fact that anecdotal evidence so far suggests that this was the
motivation behind the Bharatiya Janata Party's supervision of the
shocking pogroms against Muslims in Gujarat in 2002.

Harriss-White's book, with its pragmatic, undeterred attention to the
unlovely realities of the structuring forces behind the economy, is a
wake-up call. It documents the strength of the powerful political and
institutional forces that rule the economy today, in unholy alliances
that have institutionalised corruption and fraud, making them an
accepted, everyday part of the economy. These hegemonic forces have
created almost overwhelming obstacles to the possibility of
"democratically determined accountability" (page 247).

But, though overwhelming, these forces and their "anti-social economy"
can and must be challenged. To do so requires, as a first step, a
dispassionate recognition of the reach and nature of the ugly
political and economic realities that encircle us. In this task this
book is a useful guide.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2009/stories/20030509000107100.htm

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Aug 25, 2003

Business

There's no immutable law in economics

IN A recent public speech on economic policy, Bimal Jalan, Governor of
the Reserve Bank of India, explained the realism which drives India's
exchange rate policy. (Dr Jalan lays down office in October).

Coming from a person who steered the country's external sector through
the turbulent second half of the last decade (marked by major
international events such as the Asian currency crisis, and global
market shocks) with a steady hand and a definite, medium-term vision,
Dr Jalan's comments are a great lesson for everybody.

There can be no doctrinaire, orthodox, rule-bound approach to the
financial markets and economics and more generally the social
sciences. That is the most important message flowing from Dr Jalan's
speech. Equally interesting was his declaring the central bank's
openness to suggestions and feed back in the process of policy
formulation.

Since it has taken place in fairly quick succession, one cannot but
compare Dr Jalan's pragmatic approach with the almost obsessive rule-
bound approach of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to economic
policy issues. This dogmatic approach was articulated by its (IMF's)
Chief Economist, Kenneth Rogoff a few days before Dr. Jalan's speech.
On a recent visit to India, Mr. Rogoff almost instinctively talked
about India's fiscal deficit being completely unsustainable and it
being the root cause of all its economic malaise. Now, this line on
fiscal deficits has been the standard of the IMF for such a long time
that its representatives almost instinctively parrot out the
argument.

Quite oblivious to the fact that this has been turned on its head in
the most convincing manner in many countries across the world.

For instance, one is reminded of Lawrence Summers, a former US
Treasury Secretary, publicly recommending that Japan pump-prime more
(even as its public debt was well over 150 per cent of its GDP)
precisely when the IMF / rating agencies were ringing the alarm bells
on its deficits and one agency actually downgraded Japanese debt.
Japan has continued to pump-prime and though things have certainly not
improved, neither have they got any worse. There is more to Japan's
economic malaise than just the fiscal deficits.

More recently, Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve,
publicly supported the fiscal stimuli package of the Bush
Administration as soon as it was unveiled while the same Chairman had
some time earlier spoken eloquently about the virtues of balanced
budgets. One can only ascribe the Chairman's turnaround on budget
deficits — if it can be called a turnaround — to his pragmatic
approach to economic circumstances.

A budget deficit while undesirable at a point in time for an economy
becomes necessary some other time for the same economy. One cannot
have a single policy for all times. (The deficit constraints which the
Maastricht Treaty has imposed on Euro zone countries and the tensions
this is causing in the Euro zone is another stark pointer to the non-
sustainability of rule-bound economic policies).

So much for practical economics in the advanced countries being out of
sync with the IMFs doctrinaire approach. A more telling example is
available in itself.

The country is in the midst of a stubborn run of budget deficits over
the past decade — averaging around 7 per cent of GDP and which is
certainly not yet through its course — that Indian interest rates have
fallen to their all time low around 5.50 per cent. Indeed, yields on
10 year Indian government bonds which were ruling around 15 per cent a
decade ago are now around 5.50 per cent and could fall more. And India
continues to post sizable deficits which do not seem like reversing in
the foreseeable future.

What is particularly noteworthy is that the Indian developments seem
to have comprehensively negated some core tenets of the IMF approach.
Not only has India posted huge deficits, it has also heavily monetised
those deficits over the course of the decade (though the level of
monetisation has come down in the recent past).

Runaway inflation and severe upward pressure on interest rates — that
is what the IMF has been warning will follow big government deficits
and their monetisation. What has happened in India?

While inflation has continued to behave (averaging around 6.5 per cent
in the past decade), interest rates, as mentioned earlier, are still
to bottom out. While there are definitely concerns about how Indian
inflation is being measured (inflation in the services sector, for
example, is not reckoned at all), the country is not near runaway
inflation. The Indian currency is still maintaining its integrity, by
and large, as a store of value and means of payment.

The Indian situation is somewhat analogous to the Japanese. That is,
things have certainly not improved here dramatically (for instance,
there is no double digit growth with these ultra-low interest rates)
but they are not deteriorating either. The larger message being: there
is more to the economy and the lacunae in it than just some text-book
prescriptions on fiscal deficits.

By the way, it is quite possible that over the course of the next few
months, Indian bond yields could be on par with those on U.S.
government bonds. Ten year US bonds are now yielding around 4.50 per
cent. There is no immutable law in economics which says Indian bond
yields cannot match U.S. Treasuries.

T. B. Kapali

(The author is Asst Vice President (Treasury) in ING Vysya Bank. These
are purely his personal views which do not reflect those of his
employer).

http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/biz/2003/08/25/stories/2003082500080200.htm

Book Review

On economic reforms
S. MAHENDRA DEV

The book is a fitting tribute to Prof. Bagchi’s contribution to social
sciences

POST-REFORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA — Essays for Amiya Kumar Bagchi:
Edited by Manoj Kumar Sanyal, Mandira Sanyal, and Shahina Amin; Orient
Blackswan Pvt. Ltd. 3-6-752, Himayatnagar, Hyderabad-500029. Rs. 695.

Economic reforms have influenced the development strategies in recent
decades. There have been some improvements in economic growth and
other indicators in the post-reform period.

However, there are concerns regarding poverty reduction, quantity and
quality of employment generation, human development, and inequalities
in the economy and society — rural-urban, man-woman and so on. It is
known that economic growth is only one of the means or instruments for
achieving the end — the well-being and freedoms of the people.

A festschrift volume for Prof. Amiya Kumar Bagchi, the book under
review deals with post-reform developments in Asia. Bagchi is an
eminent economist, a social scientist, and an institution-builder. His
research on various development issues is widely known. He interacted
with renowned economists and social scientists. As indicated in a
‘tribute’ to him in the volume, he acknowledged “his debt to his
teachers Maurice Dobb, R.M. Goodwin and Joan Robinson in particular”
at Trinity College. He also records his debt to Amartya Sen and
Sukhamoy Chakravorty and recalls his useful interactions with the
students of the Presidency College, Calcutta (now Kolkata).

As mentioned in the ‘preface,’ the essays are an “attempt to grapple
with the issues often raised in the development debate on whether neo-
liberal reforms in developing nations have raised poverty, food
insecurity and income inequality, hindered empowerment of women,
raised agrarian distress, reallocated resources for private
profitability as against social gain and facilitated the rise of multi-
national oligopoly.” These issues have been examined on the basis of
empirical data drawn from China, India, and Bangladesh. The volume
contains 11 essays — six on India, two on China, and one on
Bangladesh; the other two papers deal with theoretical issues.

Inequality

The papers on China focus on the inequality across regions and the
rural-urban disparities. Inequalities increased in China in spite of
rapid economic growth. Those on India have as their themes food
insecurity, growth-poverty-employment relationship, gender
discrimination in the labour market, agrarian distress caused by
withdrawal of state support to small farmers and, policy shift in
‘priority sector lending’ to the detriment of small and marginal
farmers and entrepreneurs.

One of the papers refers to the paradox of higher GDP growth, lower
poverty, and higher unemployment in the post-reform India and the
authors discuss it using the data up to 1999-2000. But if we use the
more recent 2004-05 data, the employment growth rate will be high.
Although unemployment increased, it is still less than 10 per cent.
Apart from unemployment, a basic problem in India is that of “working
poor.” People are working but at low wages, in low working conditions,
and without any social security. In other words, there is no paradox
of low poverty and high unemployment in India.

Child labour

The paper on Bangladesh revisits poverty issues in the context of
child labour. It indicates that the determinants of children’s market
work and household work will have to be examined in separate models.
The last two papers discuss an analytical framework for understanding
the issues relating to the recent rise of multi-national firms and the
rapid growth of India’s software technology.

One can differ with the methodology used and the analysis made in some
of the papers. It may be noted that the impact of economic reforms
depends on initial conditions and other factors. In general, the
international experience shows that reforms have not succeeded in
Latin America and Africa.

On the other hand, the experience of South East Asia and East Asia
with economic reforms and poverty reduction has been much better. For
example, in China, although inequalities increased, their official
data show that the poverty ratio is very low and children suffering
malnutrition is eight per cent. This does not mean that everything is
good about these regions. Countries here also suffered on account of
the financial crisis in the late 1990s. As pointed out in the book,
these countries and those in South Asia have to focus more on
inequalities, employment, poverty, human development, and other social
and economic problems apart from accelerating economic growth.

Moreover, economic reforms have given greater importance to the
financial sector as compared to the real sector. The Indian experience
with reforms over the past 18 years reveals that there have been
achievements on the growth front but inequalities widened and the
performance in terms of the quality of employment and progress in
social sector is far from satisfactory. For example, malnutrition
among children was stubborn at 45 per cent during the period
1998-2006. Fortunately, there is a growing recognition in countries
like India that an equitable or inclusive development is imperative
since the social and economic disparities are persistently high and
worsening, in spite of the higher economic growth. Compared to other
countries, India has done well in the present financial crisis because
of its cautious approach.

To conclude, this book is a significant addition to the literature on
economic reforms and a fitting tribute to Prof. Bagchi’s contribution
to social sciences.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Oct 06, 2009

http://www.hindu.com/br/2009/10/06/stories/2009100650631200.htm

All the world's a market

*Selling Globalisation

The Myth of the Global Economy
By Michael Veseth

Publishers: Lynne Rienner
Price: not mentioned.

THIS book began as a project to explore the application of chaos
theory -- the analysis of non-linear dynamical processes -- to
international political economy, especially to the study of
international financial movements. Case study of four `global' fir ms
-- Boeing, Microsoft, Nike, and the Frank Russell Company - enables
the author ``think creatively about what actual globalisation is and
what it means, which led me to the truth behind the myth.''

About the G-word: Globalisation, ``one of the most powerful and
persuasive images of today's world'', -- as promise or as threat --
the book argued that globalisation is badly misunderstood. It is
quantitatively and qualitatively different from the conve ntional
wisdom. Global financial markets have a built-in tendency toward chaos
and crisis, and the instability worsens as markets expand.

For the author, globalisation is really a delivery system, not a final
product. When one accepts the image of hyperglobalisation, one
simultaneously accepts, usually without question, a number of other
images -- political, economic, and intellectual.

Again, globalisation has many faces. It is, in fact, a complex dynamic
process. Veseth tells first of the four stories, which features Nike
-- how the threat of globalisation can be used effectively to promote
private interests even in a situation in whi ch the global connection
is clearly irrelevant. And finally, the fourth story looks to the pro-
democracy movement in Indonesia to provide an example of how
globalisation can be used to promote all sides of an issue.

Nike seemed to be playing the various state and local governments
against one another, looking for the best deal. Nike was able to
bargain with local governments for concessions in part because of its
image as a footloose global firm. The belief in footl oose
globalisation as a general feature of corporate behaviour was enough
to induce local governments to scramble to offer concessions to Nike,
which improved Nike's position in bargaining for its Oregon home turf.
Hyperglobalisation was a useful image t hat served Nike well in these
negotiations.

The second story shows how the image of globalisation can be
manipulated and used to promote public policies that are at best
tangentially related to global markets.

The third story is about the Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger, shows
how the consequences of actual globalisation do not always follow the
hyperglobalisation model. At first glance, the merger of two global
industrial and technological giants, creating th e largest aerospace
and defence manufacturer in the world, seems to be quintessential
hyperglobalisation. The EU threatened to impose crippling fines and
sanctions on Boeing if the merger with McDonnel Douglas went through
as planned. The EU action was n ot about monopoly power; rather, it
was about national interest.

In the fourth case, captioned `Globalisation and Democracy in
Indonesia', it is shown that as global firms and markets gain power,
citizens lose it.

The book has shown four faces of globalisation, but it really has a
thousand faces. Globalisation, Galbraith writes, is not the death of
the welfare state, but a reason to extend it. Globalisation is as
highly marketable a product in the ivory tower as i t undoubtedly is
in politics, business, and the media. So useful is this concept, in
fact, that if it did not exist, we might need to invent it.

As per the author, Ricardo Petrella has made some progress towards a
working definition of globalisation. Petrella considers
internationalisation to be a process in which raw materials, goods,
and services are exchanged across national borders. Multinati
onalisation is a further development in which especially capital but
also some labour moves across national borders as part of the
production process. Petrella's list suggests the multidimensional
nature of globalisation, but it suffers the obvious flaw that it
defines globalisation in terms of itself. Globalisation is the process
of economic, political, and social change that occurs when all agents
in a system have access to a common pool of resources.

Since Coca-Cola and McDonald's are the quintessential global
businesses in most people's minds, it is useful to consider the degree
to which they really remain multi-local enterprises. A trip through
the Coca-Cola museum in Atlanta reveals surprising deg rees of product
adaptation to local market conditions. Coca-Cola is a successful
global brand precisely because it is so successfully multi-local.
Likewise, McDonald's product lines adapt to local market conditions to
a surprising degree. The book cites the example in India. The new
stores in India make their hamburgers from lamb. Local pools are the
key to global competitiveness. Globalisation is clearly not the end of
geography. No amount of electronic technology can eliminate the
importance of local factors to global businesses.

The state will persist because the need for the state has grown, but
also because the local resource pools and socio-economic problems on
which states are based are undiminished.

Nike's famous roots are, of course, very local. The first Nike shoes
were made in Japan, and over the years more than 99 per cent of Nike
shoes have been imported through a global commodity chain that links
Nike's mainly core markets with its contract pr oducers in the semi-
periphery (e.g., South Korea) and the periphery (e.g., China and
Indonesia). Nike is truly global by my definition because it swims in
both pools. Nike does not have many employees (only about 14,000 in
1995) for a corporation with al most $5 billion in sales. Nike invests
heavily in creating demand for its products by building its stable of
celebrity endorsers and making the swoosh a symbol of their
lifestyles. Most Nike shoes and other products are made in Asia. Nike
does not own th e factories that make its shoes.

Boeing's global commercial sales are so large that they alone can skew
the balance of payments statistics of the rest of the US economy.
Boeing is almost big enough to be a nation in many respects, and a
look at Boeing actually tells us something about b oth global business
and the condition of the nation-state. Nike is a creature of the
market. Boeing is a creature of the state.

The book has looked at four examples of actual globalisation: Nike,
Boeing, Frank Russell, and Microsoft. However, as the author believes,
only Nike is global in the sense that he has defined this term; Boeing
shows that state power is an important facto r in economic
globalisation; the Frank Russell Company demonstrates that people
matter more and that technology perhaps matters less than is often
suspected in global businesses. Microsoft highlights several important
aspects of globalisation.

Moving further to the political economy of globalisation in Chapter
VI, it is held, globalisation is a lever that special interests can
use to pry open certain public policy doors that would otherwise be
tightly shut. Economic interdependence, strengthen ed by technological
change and scientific advances, made the nations of the world so
interdependent, especially in terms of finance, that sovereignty was
an obsolete concept. An unambiguous lesson of the last forty years is
that increased participation i n the world economy has become the key
to domestic growth and prosperity.

The penultimate chapter deals with ``Unsettled Foundations''.
Globalisation is all about markets. Hyperglobalisation is, what David
Sousa calls: `garbage can' politics: `the global economy' is an
enormously attractive problem. Economic ideas like global markets are
exploited by both politicians, as Krugman notes, and economists who
have a policy axe to grind.

Globalisation, seen through the lens of economics, is a highly
efficient and altogether admirable process driven by greed or the
desire of wealth or the love of money or purposeful behaviour.
Globalisation, being the ultimate expansion of markets to a gl obal
scale, is therefore everything an economist believes in.

Joseph Schumpeter addressed this important problem in his 1939 books
Business Cycles. It is the dynamical interaction of these cycles,
Schumpeter argued that creates macroeconomic cycles. Schumpeter's
vision of economic was dynamic, and ultimately chaoti c. Schumpeter
lacked the sophisticated mathematical tools necessary to make his
vision of a theory non-linear dynamical economics a reality.

The last chapter `rethinks' globalisation. By some measures, the world
is less thoroughly integrated today than it was in the period before
World War I that Keynes has idealised. When people think of
globalisation, for good or for bad, they think about a world of Nike,
which is unequal, envious, performance-oriented, capitalist world.
Among the many forces that limit the extent to which true
globalisation can happen is the fundamental instability of global
financial markets. If globalisation is not new, not ubiquitous, and
not unstoppable, then why does it get so much attention? Globalisation
gets attention because it is a useful concept, globalisation has been
so effectively marketed is that attempts to provide a sound economic
critique of this concep t have thus far been ineffective.

An erudite treatise that the book constitutes, it makes an apt and
timely contribution of great significance to the complex term which
globalisation connotes.

Raghu Dayal

Financial Daily
from THE HINDU group of publications
Monday, January 22, 2001

http://www.hinduonnet.com/businessline/2001/01/22/stories/122209b2.htm

"We're in the Money": Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/3bc67593a8a0ac5b#
Madam I 'm Adam: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/fbe56c67d373c696#
It's the Economy, Stupid: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/a46d86d4a3976279#
BRIC-a-BRAC: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/1d0dab2a874d0f26#
Big Bang: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/293ffa6b644467ef#
Indian Economic Survey: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/83574501e1c1ee72#
World's Baked Billionaires: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/42a9c3eca9882e80#
Below Poverty line, Line: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/097e4867b8baf22a#
Outsourcing Sorcery: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/topics?start=300&sa=N
Globalization Gobbledigook: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/bea6b5954e7332f4#
Indian Budget Bonanza: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/40cc05563d71e4a4#
Pranab Mukherjee, my Main Man: Sid Harth
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.indian.marathi/browse_thread/thread/0ce38c4203700750#

...and I am Sid Harth

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